THE CATCH-UP

HAPPENING NOW — “Biden expected to forcefully urge Netanyahu to accept ceasefire deal in Thursday meeting,” by CNN’s MJ Lee and Michael Williams: “‘We’re closer than we’ve ever been,’ one senior administration official said. ‘It’s up to the Israelis to accept it.’”

HARRIS REVS UP — VP KAMALA HARRIS is quickly ramping up her messaging in the presidential race as Republicans move to define her first.

“Freedom” is the early watchword from the Harris campaign: It’s the principal subject of her launch video, which is soundtracked by the BEYONCÉ song of the same name. And in a Houston speech to the American Federation of Teachers today, Harris cast the election as a contest for key freedoms, as the crowd chanted, “Bring it on.” Focusing on school safety and academic liberties, she warned, “We want to ban assault weapons, and they want to ban books.”

Harris is almost done locking up the nomination: A trio of progressive groups threw their support behind her today, and BARACK OBAMA — the biggest holdout — has had multiple conversations with her this week, NBC’s Carol Lee, Jonathan Allen and Monica Alba scooped. Eugene reports that his public endorsement could come as soon as today. Planners of the Democratic National Convention are working in overdrive to suddenly shift much of their messaging from President JOE BIDEN to Harris, AP’s Will Weissert reports.

But House Republicans today passed a resolution condemning Harris over the U.S.-Mexico border, Jordain Carney and Anthony Adragna report, and they peeled off six vulnerable Democrats: Reps. YADIRA CARAVEO (Colo.), HENRY CUELLAR (Texas), DON DAVIS (N.C.), MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ (Wash.), JARED GOLDEN (Maine) and MARY PELTOLA (Alaska).

Harris is facing pressure from both the left and the right on immigration, USA Today’s Lauren Villagran and Rebecca Morin report, and she needs to make inroads with young Latinos, NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa and Nicole Acevedo report from San Antonio. Harris will also have to navigate the fraught political landscape around the Israel-Hamas war, as CNN’s Isaac Dovere details; this morning, she issued a forceful statement condemning violence, flag-burning and pro-Hamas rhetoric at Washington protests yesterday.

The latest polls from Emerson/The Hill show Harris making up ground from Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and especially Georgia; she’s heading to Atlanta to campaign Tuesday, per The Atlanta-Journal Constitution. But DONALD TRUMP is still tied or leading in all five, even as Democrats have the advantage in every Senate race. Morning Consult has Harris up by 1 point nationally.

About the veepstakes: As the race to select a running mate heats up, many home-state delegations are shilling for their respective contenders, Liz Crampton, Nick Wu, Daniella Diaz, Sarah Ferris, Ursula Perano and Ben Lefebvre report. Republicans most fear Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, NBC’s Allan Smith, Henry Gomez and Katherine Doyle report from Pittsburgh.

WIND IN THE SAILS — The latest GDP report out today showed that the U.S. economy is still running strong: It grew 2.8 percent in the second quarter, twice the rate of the first quarter and much higher than economists’ expectations, per the WSJ. Consumer spending bumped up, powering the acceleration, along with business investment and government spending.

We’ll see new inflation numbers tomorrow, and it remains uncertain if the Fed will finally move to cut interest rates. But in terms of the immediate political impact, Victoria Guida writes, “Harris is moving into the lead role of selling the U.S. economy to voters just as the pitch is getting easier to make.”

2025 dreaming: Taking a longer view, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek examines the fascinating dynamic awaiting whoever inhabits the Oval Office next. Ongoing GDP strength (plus interest rate cuts), abating inflation and the ripening of major Biden administration investments could all combine to make the economy feel pretty great by next year.

But Trump’s economic plans could be an X factor. Economists broadly expect his policies on tariffs, immigration and deficits to worsen inflation, Reuters’ Michael Derby reports, which could prompt the Fed to keep rates high. While Trump and Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) have advocated for a weaker dollar to boost manufacturing, economists also think his agenda (especially on tariffs and taxes) would keep the dollar strong, Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson report.

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at [email protected].

6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. ECONOMIC WARFARE: WaPo is kicking off a major new series examining how the U.S.’ use of economic sanctions against foreign countries has boomed this century — to often mixed effect. Jeff Stein and Federica Cocco report that under GEORGE W. BUSH, BARACK OBAMA and especially Trump and Biden, the U.S. has almost reflexively started slapping sanctions on bad actors abroad, which has allowed successive administrations to punish adversaries without risking American troops. They can be effective. But even top Biden administration officials are now concerned about their overuse, their frequent failure and their unintended consequences. Among the notable takeaways:

• One-third of all countries and 60 percent of low-income countries are now under some form of sanctions from the U.S., which imposes them three times more than any other country or body.

• “In Washington, the swell of sanctions has spawned a multibillion-dollar industry. Foreign governments and multinational corporations spend exorbitant sums to influence the system.”

• Sanctions have often unleashed massive economic pain, including a depression in Venezuela three times the size of the Great Depression, even as authoritarian regimes have increasingly worked together to circumvent them and dig into the black market.

Striking case study: “Sanctions Crushed Syria’s Elite. So They Built a Zombie Economy Fueled By Drugs,” by WaPo’s Joby Warrick and Souad Mekhennet in Kom al-Raf, Jordan

2. DISINFORMATION DIGEST: ELON MUSK’s hands-off approach to content moderation on X mostly just relies on users to fact-check election misinformation via Community Notes, NYT’s Kate Conger reports. But that strategy already seems to be failing: Though some viral lies are noted, many others spread unchecked. “Even with a corrective label attached, misleading claims can spread across X … And because users from across the political spectrum have to agree on how to correct posts, some comments and fact checks about divisive topics never surface at all.”

3. ATTENTION DEFICIT: “Trump and His Allies Adapt to a New Role: Fighting for Attention,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan: “For the first time since Donald J. Trump was indicted in the spring of 2023, he has lost his grip on the news cycle and — temporarily at least — his message. … [T]hey were caught off guard by the speed and ruthless efficiency of the replacement. They figured that if [Biden] did quit, Democrats would have to stumble through at least a few weeks of turmoil.” Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook adds that the Trump campaign is “frantically revamping its strategy.”

4. GATEWAY DRUG: The Gateway Pundit’s bankruptcy filing was tossed out by a judge, who determined that it was a bad-faith effort to forestall defamation cases pending against the outlet, the Guardian’s Sam Levine reports. Accused of disseminating false claims related to the 2020 election, the Gateway Pundit said openly in April that it was filing for bankruptcy to consolidate the civil litigation against it. But Judge MINDY MORA said this week that the site’s “eye-catching” assets were 22 times the size of its liabilities.

5. PIER ZERO: “How Biden’s Gaza pier project unraveled,” by Reuters’ Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali: “The first time President Joe Biden's administration considered ordering the U.S. military to build a floating pier off Gaza to deliver aid in late 2023, it was put on the backburner. … [Ultimately, it] involved 1,000 U.S. troops, delivered only a fraction of the promised aid at a cost of nearly $230 million, and was from the start beset by bad luck and miscalculations, including fire, bad weather and dangers on shore from the fighting between Israel and Hamas.”

6. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: “Amid tensions with China, some US states are purging Chinese companies from their investments,” by AP’s David Lieb in Jefferson City, Missouri: In addition to Missouri, “Indiana and Florida also have restricted their public pension funds from investing in certain Chinese companies. Similar legislation targeting public investments in foreign adversaries was vetoed in Arizona and proposed in Illinois and Oklahoma. … But some investment officials and economists have raised concerns that the emerging patchwork of state divestment policies could weaken investment returns for retirees.”

PLAYBOOKERS

JD Vance’s unusually short venture capital career included some highs and lows.

Jennifer Wexton is speaking on the House floor today with her AI-recreated voice.

IN MEMORIAM — “Washington Institute Mourns Passing of Founding Executive Director Martin Indyk: He was 73. … [J]ust eight years after he launched the Institute, President Bill Clinton tapped Indyk to serve as his top Middle East policy advisor … and he served two separate tours as U.S. ambassador to Israel.”

BOOK CLUB — Melania Trump will publish a memoir, “Melania,” this fall from Skyhorse Publishing, AP’s Hillel Italie reports. The announcement said the book “includes personal stories and family photos she has never before shared with the public.” Donald Trump is also publishing a photo book, “Save America,” which comes out Sept. 3 and will feature his iconic post-assassination fist-pump photo on the cover, Axios’ Mike Allen and Noah Bressner report. Winning Team Publishing will put it out.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Dentons LLP federal team party last night, hosted by Joe Crowley and Jeff Denham at a townhouse just off the Hill: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Kevin McCarthy, Reps. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.), Andy Barr (R-Ky.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Ben Cline (R-Va.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), John Duarte (R-Calif.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Ron Estes (R-Kan.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.), Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) and Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Rodney Davis, Terry McAuliffe and Frank Luntz.

— SPOTTED at an AI Roundtable on Tuesday organized by the Aquia Group’s Stoney Burke, Ryan Dattilo and Austin Agrella: Reps. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), August Pfluger (R-Texas), Lou Correa (D-Calif.), Dale Strong (R-Ala.) and Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), Will Hurd, Jack Clark, Rachel Appleton, Shannon Kellogg, Dan Murray, Matt Haskins, Jason Grumet, Rich Powell and Joel Miller.

— Mike Pence addressed the 2024 summer law fellows of The Fund for American Studies last night at their closing ceremony, where Roger Ream interviewed him. SPOTTED: Rep. Greg Pence (R-Ind.), Don Devine, Judge Gregory Maggs and Donald Kochan.

MEDIA MOVE — Zoha Qamar is joining POLITICO as director of audience. She previously was strategy manager at the WSJ.

TRANSITIONS — Chris Moore is now executive director at the UN Foundation. He previously was VP of government affairs at Canoo, and is a PhRMA and NAM alum. … Matt Silhacek is joining Ascent Strategic as director of client fulfillment. He previously was campaign manager for House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). … Paul DeLaney is now VP and head of government relations at SK Americas. He previously was a partner at the Kyle House Group.

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