UK EV's: Tipping point or bubble?

Are we at the tipping point of the UK's transition to electric vehicles, or is it just a bubble that is going to burst?

It often feels like we're on a knife-edge when it comes to the UK market for electric vehicles. On the one hand, the government's decision to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030 as the UK economy shifts towards Net-Zero has created impetus from manufacturers to develop affordable electric cars for a wider range of consumers. Those consumers are also keen to make the transition to electric vehicles themselves.

On the other hand, whilst targets have galvanised policymakers, companies and other stakeholders to take practical steps to facilitate a shift towards EV's, an apparent slow rollout of infrastructure is making people hesitant.

Drivers who live in rural areas, cover large distances, or don't have their own designated parking space or driveway are more likely to hold back. While at times it may seem as if there isn't a plan to facilitate the transition, behind the scenes, the government and utility services are working together to provide workable solutions to the challenges ahead.

Enabling The Transition

The government aims to maximise the use of smart charging technologies, guided by four key objectives that look to increase consumer uptake, protect the grid and champion innovation while protecting consumers.

By 2030, Ofgem expects to see 14 million electric vehicles on UK roads. By 2050, electric cars and vans are expected to need 65–100TWh of electricity annually. Delivering a comprehensive and reliable charging infrastructure will require significant investment in the energy system. While this at first might look challenging, Ofgem believes that expanded capacity could lead to a reduction in energy costs for consumers.

Smart Charging will allow for more efficient use of renewable generation capacity. Currently, wind energy generated during the night is often lost.

The government now requires that all new private charge points must be smart, and that smart charge points will be required to meet device-level requirements.

With Vehicle To Grid (V2G), your EV can be used as a battery pack, letting you sell stored excess battery back to the grid when demand for energy is peaking (search for Octopus Energy's "Powerloop").

It's also important to remember that due to energy efficiencies and innovation, energy demand is currently lower than it has been for years. Demand peaked at 62GW in 2002, falling to just over 50GW today. Even with an overnight switch to EVs, the National Grid estimates that overall demand would only increase by 10%.

No Turning Back

The market for electric cars is growing rapidly. There were over 395,000 pure-electric cars on UK roads at the end of 2021, and this rises to 740,000 if plug-in hybrids are included. Sales of electric vehicles now make up a third of all new car vehicle registrations in the UK and the growth trend is clear.

As we get nearer the 2030 deadline, this is likely to gather pace with EV sales becoming the majority of new registrations within the next few years. The battery capacity of the cars themselves is also improving. Many of the latest EVs can easily travel 200 miles or more on a single charge and with rapid charging units, a standard electric car or van can reach 80% capacity in less than an hour.

Alongside the sale of vehicles, there has been a considerable expansion of charging capacity. New charge points are being added daily, with a dramatic increase in the number of EV charge points available for the public over the past five years. From the end of 2016 to the start of 2022, the number of public chargers increased by 220%.

The charging capacity is also diversifying, with the growth in the number of slow chargers. These are primarily on-street chargers installed by local authorities that make it possible for people without off-street parking to purchase an EV. This is seen as vital in addressing current inequalities when it comes to EV access.

There is so much innovation happening in this space it's extremely exciting to be a part of (I'll write another post on that soon) but to summarise for now, whilst we may be relatively early on our journey (compared with the likes of Norway) the UK's transition to electric vehicles is anything but a bubble...