June 2024 Edition

Stay informed and never miss a beat in the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape. We look forward to your exploration of Refined Insight and welcome your valuable feedback.

To read the full edition of the newsletter on our website, please click here.

Global Overview:

A note from Associate Director and Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood

As our Mid-Year Forecast events approach, our desks have had a chance to take a step back and reflect on the first half of 2024. The risk landscape continues to evolve, posing fresh challenges for individuals, assets and businesses. In an increasingly impactful year, May proved as busy as ever, and our regional teams have continued to provide actionable intelligence for a raft of global customers. 

Our Middle East and Africa desk has continued to produce regular reporting on the Israel-Hamas war, focusing on the expansion of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operations into Rafah. The unexpected death of the late Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, has left a substantial leadership vacuum; the country is now preparing for an election that will decide its next president. In addition, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority, securing 159 seats in the National Assembly in South Africa’s 29 May general election. 

Our Americas analysts continue to focus on Sino-US relations, as well as Labour laws in Canada. Tensions between Canada and India also remain elevated in the wake of the recent murder of a Sikh separatist leader. Elsewhere, the desk is keeping abreast of extreme weather in Brazil and security risks in Haiti. 

Our Europe-Eurasia desk maintained its coverage of the Ukraine war, especially Russia’s operational drive into Kharkiv oblast. They also assess that Russian grey zone operations will persist across Europe. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to pose grave challenges for the region, while the attempted assassination of Slovakia’s prime minister proved a major flashpoint in Europe. 

In the Asia-Pacific, the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president is highly likely to have provoked Chinese military drills, which came amid a difficult month for businesses operating in China. The desk has also continued to track key votes, including the election of the first new Singaporean prime minister in nearly 20 years. India’s election has also entered its final stages; the coming weeks will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue in office for a third term. 

As ever, we are ready to help your organisation navigate an increasingly complex world; to that end, please feel free to reach out with any questions you have regarding the above, or any other topic. Thank you, and we hope you enjoy this month’s edition. 

Middle East, North Africa and Turkey

On 6 May, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began expanding ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) after negotiations with Hamas stalled. Throughout the month, the IDF conducted small-scale ground incursions, slowly advancing towards Rafah city centre while gradually building up the number of brigades operating in the area. The IDF also secured full control of the Rafah border crossing on 7 May, along with parts of the Philadelphi corridor, escalating security and diplomatic tensions with Egypt. This culminated in a misfire that killed an Egyptian security guard on 27 May. Furthermore, on 24 May, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued provisional measures calling for Israel to halt Rafah operations, driving further international condemnation against Israel. In Iran, President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister died in a helicopter crash on 19 May, leaving substantial leadership vacuum within Iran’s conservative movement, with elections scheduled for 28 June.

Sub-Saharan Africa 

In Mali, the National Dialogue recommended that the military junta extend the transition to civilian rule by three years. This would allow Mali’s junta to rule until 2027. Similarly, on 25 May Burkina Faso’s military leader, Ibrahim Traore, signed a new charter extending the country’s transition period by 60 months, granting him the positions of president and ‘supreme leader of the armed forces’ and allowing him to contest elections as and when they are organised. On 20 May, South Africa's Constitutional Court ruled that the former president and leader of the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, Jacob Zuma, is ineligible to run for the 29 May general election due to his 15-month prison sentence for contempt of court. Despite the ruling, the MK party has been permitted to contest the election; representatives have already said that Zuma will remain head of the party regardless of the ruling, sustaining its capacity to undercut the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in key regions.

Eurasia 

On 28 May, the Georgian parliament voted to override the veto of President Salome Zurabishvili on foreign agent legislation, paving the way for its implementation. We previously assessed that this law, combined with the ruling Georgian Dream party’s increasingly anti-Western stance, will highly likely sustain high Domestic Unrest risks in Georgia. Large-scale demonstrations in opposition to the law are likely to continue in the coming days and weeks. Protest activity has also remained heightened in neighbouring Armenia this month over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. On 24 May, Baku took control of the four border villages Yerevan had agreed to cede in April. While such transfers will likely modestly aid in reducing Regional Tensions and Border Disputes between both countries in the near term, territorial concessions will drive Government Stability risks in Armenia. Elsewhere in Eurasia, Russia launched a new offensive on 10 May in Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast, which we assessed is likely an attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces and take advantage of months-long delays in Western military aid.

Europe 

In May, Sibylline assessed that Russia has likely intensified grey zone and destabilisation operations in Europe, particularly across the Baltic region, as part of a wider deterrence campaign to pressure the West and erode support for Ukraine. On 15 May, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot while attending a government meeting in the town of Handlová (Trenčín region). Fico’s condition has now stabilised. Additionally, in a Special Report on the European Parliament elections, we assessed that centrist parties will retain a slightly diminished majority; right-wing and hard-right parties are likely to increase their seat share. Finally, an Events Risk Assessment assessed the key risks during the UEFA European Championships 2024 in Germany.

East Asia and Pacific 

On 20 May, Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. However, just days after China announced two days of military drills around the island, illustrating their disapproval of the new president who they consider a ‘separatist’. Lai also must deal with a split legislature, which his party does not control, and with the opposition pushing through controversial legislation that has prompted significant protests. Additionally, the prospect of a trade war between China and Western economies grew, as tit-for-tat trade measures were announced in May, highlighting the difficult operating environment for firms in China. Elsewhere, Singapore swore in a new prime minister for the first time in nearly 20 years, although a significant change in policy is highly unlikely.

South Asia  

South Asia continued to experience elevated temperatures (consistently surpassing 40 C) that increased health risks and heightened disruption due to suspended operations of services and schools, as well as power shortages due to increased energy demand. The heat is also believed to have had an impact on the turnout for the ongoing Indian election, which enters its final stages following a charged campaign period. The results due in early June will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue in office for a third term, which is the most likely scenario. Elsewhere, significant protests were monitored across Pakistan as the high cost of living has put increasing pressure on different parts of society.

North America 

In the US, another attempt to pass a border security bill failed in Congress over continued partisan-fuelled Policy Stagnation. On 14 May, President Joe Biden announced new tariffs on USD 18 billion in goods made in China, escalating tensions with the Chinese government and increasing the risk of tit-for-tat trade measures. Notably, Biden also withheld shipments of high payload weapons to Israel to warn against launching a major operation into Rafah (Palestinian territories). In Canada, Labour Flexibility risks decreased after the House of Commons voted to ban replacement workers during a strike in federal workplaces. However, labour activity is expected to increase over the coming months, particularly as workers from the Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City voted for a strike on 1 May. Additionally, Regional Tensions with India remained high due to the arrest of three Indian men over the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in June 2023 and the ongoing investigation over the Indian government’s alleged involvement. Across North America, frequent periods of extreme weather (including wildfires and tornadoes) raised Energy Security and disruption risks.

Latin America  

Heavy rains caused severe flooding in the Rio Grande do Sul state of Brazil, elevating bystander, operational and supply chain risks. Furthermore, the flooding has also increased risks for public health and the agricultural sector, particularly soybean production. Meanwhile, the beginning of the deployment of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti has elevated risks of reprisal attacks and sustained organised crime risks in the capital Port-au-Prince. The stagnation of Argentine President Javier Milei’s controversial Omnibus Bill has sustained policy and government stability risks. However, the bill has progressed to the Senate floor after garnering sufficient support among the various Senate committees engaged in deliberation.

If you would like any of the reports referenced above or have any follow-up questions please contact us.

Thought Leadership:

The Role of Intelligence in Legal Practice

Written by Jack Nott-Bower MSyI, Associate Director, Head of Training, Consulting & Knowledge

In our May newsletter, Sibylline CEO Justin Crump raised the concept of “professional intelligence (PROSINT)” to explain the value of our services to functions outside the traditional security world, such as supply chain, communications and legal teams. The last example got me thinking: When we say, “lawyers can benefit from intelligence services,” what does that mean in practice?

You’d be forgiven for doubting how a profession that operates strictly within codified rules, regulations and boundaries can possibly benefit from a service more associated with grey areas and constructing inferences from incomplete information. There is inherent tension between the disciplined, fact-based approach required of lawyers and the intelligence practitioner’s mindset of connecting disparate data to assess the probability of an outcome. No matter how reasoned or “defensible” intelligence assessments are, they almost always lack the absolute stiffness and provability required in legal practice.

This compatibility issue isn’t the only concern. How does a lawyer protect attorney-client privilege when integrating intelligence third parties into legal strategy? What if intelligence gathering tactics run afoul of the rules of professional conduct governing attorneys’ behaviour? From a resourcing perspective, why spend on intelligence when you could allocate those funds towards more paralegals or research tools?

To address these concerns, we should start by reminding ourselves of the main purpose of intelligence, which is to offer clear insights that aid decision-making. We aren’t talking about finding the scrap of evidence or nugget of expertise that draws the line between litigators losing or winning a case. Rather, it’s the ability of intelligence services to add breadth to the context surrounding regulations, relationships, competitors’ actions, and more.

While the legal realm may seem niche, professional intelligence teams are adept at rapidly building subject-matter expertise on any topic. There are many practice areas whereby analysts can gain a deep appreciation for the precise requirements and “so what” factors that matter to lawyers. Among them:

Litigation and Disputes

This could be systematically mapping out an opposing party’s ties, interests and pressure points to identify new lines of inquiry, assessing favorable venues for trial, or checking narratives to see if they will strike the right chord. Even an arbitrator’s preparation can benefit from insights on framing, biases and likely responses to any enforcement mechanisms before proceedings begin.

Regulatory and Compliance

By continuously monitoring the political and business ecosystems surrounding a particular rule or agency, intelligence teams provide foresight. This can involve examining the ideological leanings of key government stakeholders, mapping the operations of competitors and non-profit advocacy groups, or assessing the influence of dissenting voices. This allows regulatory and compliance lawyers to advise from a position of strength without being caught flat-footed when new mandates emerge.

M&A and Transactions

For dealmakers, intelligence offers a dispassionate lens for identifying risks, misconduct, unethical business practices, and other “skeletons in the closet” during due diligence. At the same time, analysts can generate insights into any upside opportunities and synergies that could further support the rationale for a deal.

Investigations and Fraud

As career cousins of intelligence analysts, corporate investigators benefit from information analytics to identify potential leads and diagnose the entire scope of illicit activities. Whether investigating antitrust, embezzlement or insider threats, lawyers who integrate the multi-disciplinary skills that intelligence teams offer can gain an edge when building a strategy for responding to allegations.

Intellectual Property

We’re increasingly living in a knowledge-based economy where the aggressive pursuit of corporate IP by adversaries – traditionally competing businesses, increasingly nation-states – means lawyers need to know the risks early before drawing up strategies for IP litigation and protecting revenue streams. While intelligence analysts in the cyber world play a central role in alerting legal teams to suspicious activity before losses occur, non-technical analysts can also contribute by mapping the broader competitive landscape and analysing the potential for blowback after an intervention.

There are undoubtedly more examples where, with a little creativity, an analyst’s open-ended approach to uncovering, contextualising and strategically applying insights complements a lawyer’s traditionally rigid method of working. Legal departments need not reinvent themselves to embrace this opportunity; privilege and confidentiality risks do need to be managed, and lawyers should always look carefully into an intelligence provider’s ethics, compliance and tradecraft policies before engaging. But for those who find a way to integrate it responsibly, the rewards of informed decision-making are there for the taking.

Discover Sibylline Podcasts: Your Guide to Global Risks and Geopolitical Developments

We are excited to announce that we have split our podcast offerings into two separate channels! Both of our shows can be found under the Sibylline Podcast Channel on Apple Podcasts. These shows seeks to offer expert analysis and insightful perspectives on global risks and geopolitical events in both short-form, timely discussions, and longer, deep-dive interviews! Subscribe today on your favourite podcast provider to stay informed and prepared with our shows:

What Just Happened? Podcast: Stay ahead of the curve with "What Just Happened," a short-format, informal podcast hosted by Ignacio Ayala, Lead Data and Insights Analyst at Sibylline. Join Ignacio and his colleagues as they provide timely updates on major geopolitical events through brief, dynamic conversations. Perfect for professionals and global affairs enthusiasts alike, this series ensures you're always in the know the details on all the latest global flashpoints.

Insights Podcast: Dive deeper into the complex world of global risks with "Insights," our long-format podcast hosted by Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence at Sibylline. Each episode features in-depth discussions with regional experts from Sibylline's diverse range of desks, offering comprehensive analyses on pressing topics. Gain a thorough understanding of the challenges and opportunities shaping our world through these expert perspectives.

Join us on the Sibylline Podcast Channel and gain access to unparalleled expertise on the critical issues impacting our global landscape. Subscribe today!

Sibylline Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/channel/sibylline-podcasts/id6503146982

What Just happened?:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/sibylline-what-just-happened/id1748113148

Insights:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sibylline-insights-podcast/id1409741776

Spotify - What Just Happened?:

https://open.spotify.com/show/0EPKmIHZu0JBPWYidhHgR8?si=f5361ebc96a741bb

Spotify Insights:

https://open.spotify.com/show/3nnteYmAixoVURo25lu3iZ?si=bf5c655749994a60

To read the full edition of the newsletter on our website, please click here.