Job search 103 - Is now a good time to look for jobs?

I was talking to a very senior executive from Silicon Valley a couple of days back who had many questions for me. My biggest takeaway was that everyone (whether early-in-career employees or senior leaders) are apprehensive about their careers. All job seekers need to be aware of some of the dynamics of the present day, which I am listing below:

1) The job market dynamics have dramatically changed: 

For the past decade, high-paying jobs in regions like the Bay Area and Bangalore have had a big boom. In this same period, big tech has been the biggest beneficiary, with high stock appreciations and trillion-dollar market caps. As a result, the bargaining power in these industries had shifted from the employer to the employee. 

A case in point is Silicon Valley which attracted the best brains worldwide. Employees, especially the software engineers, were mollycoddled with high compensation, work-from-home policies, and generous bonuses (sign-on and year-end). I once tried to recruit a person with five years of work experience in software for a compensation of 500,000 USD, and the person wouldn't join. He had multiple job offers, and each company paid a lot more than mine. A Vice President in a mid-west CPG company with a Ph.D. and 25 years of work experience would begin with a compensation of around 400,000 USD. This discrepancy could not go on forever. 

Using the current downturn as an excuse, VCs and industry leaders are cracking down on high compensation. As a result, it is not only low performers who are getting fired but also high performers who are getting paid well above the median. The bargaining power is now in the hands of the companies.

2) Changing jobs is no guarantee of success: 

Once you join a new company, you let go of your total support ecosystem and the friends who help you get your job done. In a new company, you have to rediscover these networks from scratch. It may be easier if you are junior in terms of hierarchy. However, as a manager, director, or VP, the company's expectations from you are much higher. As a result, you have lesser time to hit the ground running, probably 1-3 months to learn everything and begin to achieve your first set of wins. Every VP or above has a 100-day plan when they take up their job. Sometimes, you may not "make the cut" and get fired within six months to a year for non-performance. This headache is certainly absent in the company you are working for, as you know how to pull strings and get work done. 

There is scientific research saying that new hires from other companies are paid around 20% higher for roles compared to internal hires because there is a higher risk of them falling short of expectations and getting fired. The 20% premium, therefore, becomes a risk premium to lure talent who otherwise may play it safe and not move jobs.

3) No company wants to lose talent:

Before you think the grass is greener on the other side and want to switch jobs, remember that you can sometimes achieve your goals just by asking for it in your current company. I often saw engineers, directors, and VPs asking for promotions when all they wanted was a pay rise. So be intellectually honest and have the courage to ask for what you want. When you get a promotion, you are held accountable to a different level of performance. You will face success after promotions only if you have already done many of the expected tasks in your current role. If you plan to learn about the job after a promotion, the entire exercise will fail. From a company's perspective, it is easier to give a salary increase than a promotion. It is surprising how many people lie to their managers and HR about what they want.

Talk to your manager first about what you are looking for. If the discussion goes nowhere after a couple of conversations, you should be talking to your HR Business Partner or the HR leader for your business. At the same time, you should also be talking to a mentor within your company. This mentor should be someone senior, someone you can trust and who is willing to give you actionable feedback. Most employees need to remember that mentorship can provide a different perspective on work, influence your management chain and help you with internal transfers. Finally, of course, if nothing works, the employees can always talk to the business leader of their organization and, as a last resort, offer to resign to get what they want. 

4) Linkedin strategy:

You can be sure that someone among your friends and colleagues is checking your Linkedin profile frequently. In addition, company HR and management can quickly detect changes in your Linkedin profile, especially after long periods of inactivity. Word gets around fast. So if you have to do a discreet job search, don't change your Linkedin profile as the first step. 

A more sensible approach would be to post on Linkedin regularly, spreading your technical knowledge and expertise to a broader audience. The advantages of this approach would be that few would notice any changes in your Linkedin profile, and you can also expand your network. In addition, if you are an expert in your field and post regularly, the hiring managers and CEOs would sooner or later read your posts and may even want to contact you.

5) The paradox of overperformance:

Let us face it. When companies fire employees, it means that the amount of work for the company will be the same, but fewer employees have to do the job now. For example, assume that there is work for 100 employees in a company. There are approximately 20 below-average employees, 60 average employees, and 20 above-average employees. When the business manager fires the bottom 10-20% of the workforce, the workload for the business doesn't decrease; it is still the same. The manager will now have to redistribute the work for the bottom 20% with the others in the team. The average employee just about gets their job done and can't be trusted to complete any additional work. The only option for the manager is to give the work of the bottom 20 employees to the top 10 or 20 employees. From the perspective of the top employees, their work practically doubled or tripled overnight. This work increase creates the paradox of overperformance. When a company falls in bad times, the best employees are most likely to leave, and the average employees are most likely to stay. Even in the rare scenario that the manager gives 10 to 20% higher increments (salary increases and bonuses), the best employee is doing 100% additional work and gets paid around 20% more - a bad deal.

In times of recession, these things are common. So during a recession, be ready for a scenario where you are overloaded, paid a pittance for all the additional work, and struggling to stay afloat.

For more, follow also my Substack or Careerbolt channels.