The holidays aren’t canceled in Chicago | 2020 Deloitte holiday retail survey

As we finish up the Thanksgiving holiday, I find it hard to believe that we are entering the last month of the year. While my family’s holiday traditions are looking a little different this year, I’m hopeful that this holiday season will be as special as ever.

Each November and December, I look forward to seeing Deloitte’s annual holiday retail survey to learn more about this year’s holiday shopping trends (and to figure out when I need to start my own holiday shopping). This year marks Deloitte’s 35th year of reporting on holiday consumer spending trends.*

As I’m sure you can imagine, the findings from this year’s report showed new consumer behavior and traditions altered as the world navigates a global pandemic. However, I found some of the results to be hopeful. For example, here in Chicago, 77% of shoppers plan to donate during the holiday season – up from 35% in 2019. Despite many people cutting back on gifts this year, it’s heartening to know that Chicagoans are still giving back to our community.

To get a better understanding of the implications of this year’s holiday survey results, I sat down with Matt Adams, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP. Matt is also based in Chicago and specializes in the retail sector; I always enjoy his perspective on how shoppers are approaching the holiday season nationally and locally.

Scherer: Thanks for taking time to speak with me, Matt. What are the top findings in this year’s holiday study from a Chicago perspective?

Adams: Happy to speak with you, Kathy. There are some interesting findings in this year’s national and local reports.

I’ll start with the projected household spending: this year, Chicago shoppers expect to spend $1,053 per household, which is down 32% from last year. COVID-related anxiety and worsening financial situations are translating to a much more cautious spend. Compared to the national average of 35%, nearly half of surveyed Chicago shoppers said they planned to spend less this year due to a worsening personal and/or household financial situation.

Also unsurprisingly, many Chicago consumers say they are shifting their holiday shopping to online and contactless options. This shift toward digital shopping is a trend that’s increased over the last few years and the pandemic is accelerating it. We’ve also been seeing an increasing consumer focus on flexibility and convenience. Customers appreciate choice in how they receive products (for example, in-store pickup, curbside pickup, faster delivery) as well as how they buy.

Finally, we found that the holiday shopping window is going to be shorter this year. In Chicago, the average window is expected to be 1.4 weeks shorter, and early Chicago shoppers plan to spend the most with an average spend of $1,284 (i.e., those who plan to begin shopping before Thanksgiving Day are expected to spend over $540 more than those who start late).

Scherer: How is anxiety about COVID-19 affecting the holiday shopping season – or is it not a big factor?

Adams: Our survey found that shoppers in Chicago are feeling anxious about in-store shopping during the pandemic, with 51% of respondents noting their anxiety. Many Chicagoans are waiting for a vaccine – 53% of surveyed Chicago shoppers indicated they will return to pre-COVID shopping behaviors based on the availability of vaccines/proven medicines for COVID-19. Shoppers are also taking into consideration how retailers have implemented COVID-19 safety precautions and treated their employees in the past six months in Chicago, with 37% of respondents indicating an increased preference for a specific retailer due to its conduct.

We also found that Chicagoans are travelling less this year and spending more on home celebrations. It’s not surprising that our survey projected local spending on typical holiday experiences is down 41% from last year.

Scherer: That makes sense. What are the top gifts on Chicagoans’ lists this year?

Adams: Luckily, our survey found there’s alignment between what people say they’ll give as gifts and what they want to receive.

Our survey showed that Chicagoans will spend about $389 on 12 gifts and gift cards this year. The top items Chicago consumers plan on buying for others are gift cards/gift certificates, clothing and books.

As for the top gifts Chicagoans want to receive: it’s money (36%), followed by gift cards/gift certificates (34%) and books (32%).

And, Chicagoans also plan to buy for themselves...beverages, clothing and food are the top items that shoppers said they plan to put in their carts this year. Perhaps people are stocking up on beverages to toast the end of 2020.

Scherer: That could be! Finally, Matt, what about the big shopping holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Do they still matter?

Adams: We’ve seen year-over-year declines in Black Friday purchasing and the pandemic may accelerate that. In Chicago, our study showed that only half of respondents say they’ll take advantage of shopping event days, with Cyber Monday being most popular.

*The Chicago study was conducted online - polling a sample of 417 local consumers - between Sept. 9-15, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Click here to learn more about the 2020 Deloitte holiday retail survey and explore this year’s findings. Connect with Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution leader, and Stephen Rogers, executive director, Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center, Deloitte LLP, here on LinkedIn.

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