Friday Risk Watch: June 28, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Two Tropical Systems Pose Threats in the Atlantic and Caribbean: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring at least two disturbances for potential tropical development. Of the two, a tropical wave positioned midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is primed to become the next named Atlantic storm system in the coming days.   

• A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to gradually develop into a tropical storm by the end of the weekend. It will likely move near and over the region around July 1st, affecting areas near St. Lucia and the surrounding Windward Islands.

• The severity of the impacts will largely depend on the exact intensity and track trends, which won't be fully known for a few more days. Regardless of how organized the development becomes, above-average precipitation, coastal beach hazards, and an increased risk of flooding are likely.

• While tropical development in early July is typical across the Atlantic Basin, hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea during early July are relatively uncommon. Development into a hurricane isn't currently forecast. Still, outlying data displays a low chance of the potential scenario amid historically warm sea surface temperatures comparable to mid-August levels.  

• A second tropical wave, positioned across the Western Caribbean Sea on Friday afternoon, is running out of time to develop over water. Regardless, it will bring another round of beneficial yet disruptive rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula and Eastern Mexico this weekend.  

U.S. Fire Season Ramping Up Heading into Summer: After an abrupt start to the fire season across California in June, elevated fire conditions are expected this weekend. Since the beginning of 2024, over 106,000 acres have already burned across the state, compared to less than 10,000 acres during the same period in 2023.

• The National Interagency Fire Center forecasts below-normal to normal fire activity in California through July, normal conditions in August, and normal to above-normal fire activity in September. 

• Nationwide, nearly 50 large fires are burning across the United States, consuming over 200,000 acres across 13 states. Alaska has been particularly affected recently, with 26 active large fires and over 125 total fires reported by local agencies. 

• Communities in and around Fairbanks, Alaska, have experienced significant smoke impacts from the Clear and McDonald fires, which have reduced visibility to below one mile at times. 

• Areas near Elliott Highway in Alaska were evacuated Thursday as the Globe Fire rapidly spread toward the roadway. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Friday due to hot, dry, and windy conditions. Isolated thunderstorms may potentially spark additional lightning-driven fires, including in Fairbanks. 

Unrest in Kenya Persists After Protests Over Controversial Finance Bill Turn Deadly: Demonstrations against the Kenyan government continue despite President William Ruto’s decision not to sign a controversial finance bill. Protest leaders have outlined a new list of demands, with Ruto’s resignation topping the list.  

• Security forces killed several demonstrators on Tuesday when they stormed the Parliament building and lit part of it on fire. Ruto attempted to mollify the demonstrators by walking back the legislation on Wednesday. Still, protesters turned out again Thursday and were met with tear gas, water cannons, and other aggressive measures from police.  

• Expect further protest activity as demonstrators call for nationwide shutdowns and road blockades this coming Tuesday and Thursday. Additional actions outside of those dates are likely.  

• Demonstrations will likely center on government buildings and those associated with the United Democratic Alliance and its members. The most violent actions have centered on Nairobi’s Central Business District.  

France Elections to Feature Heightened Security, Demonstrations: A heightened security presence and demonstrations are expected in France over the weekend as the nation prepares to head to the polls Sunday to vote in the first round of snap legislative elections.  

• In recent weeks, hundreds of thousands of people have protested nationwide against the far-right National Rally (RN) party, which is leading in the polls. More demonstrations against the party are planned for the coming days, and spontaneous actions are likely on Sunday if the party does well. 

• Tens of thousands of police officers have been deployed to bolster security during voting, and authorities say they are preparing for potential election-related unrest. Previous actions against the RN have resulted in clashes between demonstrators and authorities. 

• On Saturday, protest activity will be compounded by activism connected to the conflict in the Middle East—with rallies planned in Paris (Place de la Bataille-de-Stalingrad), Lyon (Place des Terreaux), Nice (Mairie de Nice), and Toulouse (Metro Jean Jaurès)—and Pride month, as Paris’ primary march will run from Porte de la Villette to Place de la République that day. 

Political Conference in Germany to Draw Major Protests, Security Presence: Tens of thousands of demonstrators are expected to descend on Essen, Germany, this weekend to oppose a conference hosted by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party. (Note: The following links are in German.) 

• Protest activity will likely kick off Friday evening, ramp up with major actions on Saturday, and continue into Sunday. Groups leading the rallies call for "mass" actions and civil disobedience to disrupt the AfD gathering, set to take place at Grugahalle, an arena in the Rüttenscheid district.  

• Several thousand police officers are being deployed to maintain security over the weekend in an operation local officials dubbed one of the, if not the, largest that Essen has ever seen. Authorities began introducing restrictions and road closures on Thursday and are providing operational updates. 

• In addition to road closures and heavy security presence, there is a heightened risk of clashes during the weekend. Schools are reportedly offering remote classes on Friday, and some retailers in the Rüttenscheid district intend to close during the conference. 

Pride Month Culminates This Weekend With Worldwide Celebrations, Some Protests: The LGBTQ community and its allies are planning celebrations worldwide this weekend as Pride Month nears its end. Expect large marches in New York City, San Francisco, Toronto, London, and elsewhere. Demonstration activity and efforts by authorities to block marches may also occur in certain areas.  

• Activists in Istanbul plan to hold their annual Pride march on Sunday but have yet to publicly state a location. Past Pride marches in the Turkish capital have seen arrests and dispersal by security forces. Last weekend, police deployed a significant presence throughout Istanbul. Some metro stations closed to prevent gatherings by trans rights activists.  

• In May, U.S. officials issued a Public Service Announcement and rare Worldwide Caution advising of potential threats to LGBTQ-related events and venues. Many Pride events will likely see a heightened security presence.

• Some activists have organized demonstrations targeting Pride events, criticizing them for accepting certain corporate sponsorships. In St. Louis on Saturday, demonstrators plan to gather at the intersection of S Grand Blvd and Arsenal St at 6 pm to protest, while in Minneapolis on Sunday, the group "Taking Back Pride" is calling for demonstrators to gather near Hennepin Ave and S 6th St. at 10 am to call attention to various social issues, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 

Stay in the Know

Don’t miss crucial information that can make a difference. Follow us on Instagram and TikTok for upcoming editions of Friday Risk Watch, and subscribe for weekly reports that can ensure the safety and security of your organization.