Friday Risk Watch: June 21, 2024
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Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.
Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.
What We’re Watching
Eastern and Central Europe Face Rising Temperatures and Worsening Fires: Eastern Mediterranean nations like Cyprus, Türkiye, and Greece have already faced record-high temperatures and increasing wildfires over the past two weeks. As a heat wave spreads across more of the continent, these conditions will likely intensify through the end of June.
In Greece, extreme heat is being cited as the cause for an uptick in missing or deceased tourists. High temperatures have led officials to periodically close schools and restrict access to the Acropolis. Wildfire activity has also increased, with 64 incidents reported in 24 hours on Thursday. On Wednesday, a fire in Western Türkiye forced the partial suspension of shipping traffic through the Dardanelles Strait.
Looking ahead, much of Southeast Europe, from the Balkan Peninsula to the Mediterranean region, will continue to experience high temperatures through Sunday. Daily highs will consistently be 5-10°C above normal, with some areas even hotter. Showers will be scarce, and the daily fire risk will remain high to extreme.
Extended-range forecasts are particularly concerning, showing little change in the continental weather pattern between Tuesday, June 25, and the first week of July. Central Europe will likely experience increasingly frequent and widespread periods of well above-normal temperatures.
Two Areas of Tropical Weather Trouble: Residents in Eastern Mexico are cleaning up after Storm Alberto caused widespread flooding and at least four fatalities. Looking ahead, there are signs of a second disturbance in the Gulf. Additionally, a developing tropical system in the Western Pacific could threaten Northern Vietnam and already-flooded areas of China.
The National Hurricane Center has given the Bay of Campeche and Southwest Gulf of Mexico medium odds for tropical storm formation this weekend. Like Alberto, a disturbance over Central America will move over warm sea surface temperatures and marginally favorable atmospheric conditions. Rapid development is not expected, but it may reach tropical storm status shortly before landfall in Northeast Mexico, expected Saturday evening into Sunday. Primary hazards will be more heavy rain and flooding.
Tuesday into Wednesday, conditions will likely support the formation of a tropical depression or named storm as a disturbance moves north towards Hainan (China) and the Gulf of Tonkin. The exact track and intensity are still uncertain. However, heavy rainfall is expected across Northern Vietnam, including Hanoi, and the southernmost provinces of China, including Hainan, Western Guangdong, and flood-ravaged areas of Guangxi. In the past two weeks, parts of Guangxi Province have seen their worst floods since 1998.
Students Demonstrate Across India Over Exam Irregularities: Student groups across India are protesting irregularities in the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (Undergraduate), or NEET. This year, the highly competitive exam, a key step for admittance to a medical college, saw thousands of test-takers receive unusually high marks, sparking cheating allegations.
Since the results were announced on June 4, student groups have staged demonstrations outside the Ministry of Education and in prominent public areas in Delhi, Hyderabad, and elsewhere.
The opposition Indian National Congress (INC) called for nationwide protests today. Student groups and opposition parties held marches in state capitals nationwide. Some actions resulted in police clashes.
The National Students’ Union of India (NSUI), the student wing of the INC, called for supporters to gather at Jantar Mantar (Connaught Place) on Monday at 10:00 am. They plan to march and attempt to "gherao," or surround, the Parliament building. Monday is also the first session of the 18th Lok Sabha. On the same day, the youth wing of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) plans to demonstrate near Valluvar Kottam in Chennai. Additional actions are likely.
Climate Demonstrations Expected to Disrupt Traffic Across Europe: Expect multiple demonstrations this Saturday across major cities in the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Germany. The largest event will occur in London, where approximately 50,000 people will participate in the Restore Nature Now march.
Expect heightened security and traffic restrictions in London as demonstrators march from Park Lane to Parliament Square at noon. More than 300 environmental and climate activist groups are organizing the event to promote strengthening environmental protections before the U.K.’s general election next month.
Travel disruptions at the Copenhagen Airport (CPH) are likely as Extinction Rebellion (XR) climate activists intend to block Ellehammersvej Road outside the airport starting at 1 pm. Previous demonstrations suggest this will be peaceful, though other XR chapters have used tactics like entering airport grounds to protest private aircraft.
In Berlin, Letzte Generation (LG) climate activists plan to gather at Potsdamer Platz at 2 pm on Saturday for a protest march coinciding with World Rainforest Day. LG protests regularly draw dozens of demonstrators and block traffic, often resulting in police intervention.
Protests in Kenya Expected to Continue Through Weekend: This week in Kenya, nationwide demonstrations erupted against the Kenyan government's Finance Bill 2024. Despite the government's retreat from some of the bill's most unpopular provisions, protesters insist on its complete cancellation. The bill is slated for a third reading on Tuesday, prompting demonstrators to pledge ongoing protests against its passage.
This week's demonstrations resulted in at least one death, multiple injuries, and hundreds of arrests as police deployed tear gas, water cannons, and other aggressive measures.
Demonstrators call for a series of actions today through Thursday, June 27, as part of a “7 Days of Rage” campaign. Today, demonstrators planned to gather at the City Mortuary in Nairobi and attend prayers at Jamia Mosque. Saturday and Sunday will see actions at bars, clubs, and churches. On Monday, protesters intend to demonstrate at MP offices. Tuesday will see calls for a national strike while on Wednesday, demonstrators plan to target the Independent Policing Oversight Authority. Expect major road blockades in Nairobi and a march to the State House on Thursday, the last day of protests.
Members of the Kenyan diaspora are also participating in the demonstrations. A rally is planned for Sunday at 1 pm outside the Kenyan Consulate in Los Angeles.