CDR and Net Zero

Is Carbon Dioxide Removal Part of the Climate Solution? 

 While I was CEO at CO2 Lock Corp., I spent a lot of time meeting with individual investors, VCs and companies looking deeply into climate action. Everyone in the room seemed to be in agreement about the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in meeting Net Zero. But when hanging out with family and friends, the inevitable questions would come up. These questions often center around three main themes: Is carbon storage possible? Is it necessary for mitigating climate change? And, perhaps most critically, will the costs be so prohibitive that large-scale deployment remains a pipe dream?  These questions are important.   

 A recent report on The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal provides insightful data and perspectives that address these pressing questions. Let's dig into this topic.

 Is Carbon Storage Possible?

 Carbon is being cycled naturally and continuously.  As shown below, there are numerous natural and human-made carbon reservoirs. 

Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal (2023)

The goal of CDR is to take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and move it into one of the other reservoirs, and keep it there as long as possible. CDR technologies are typically focused on leveraging natural processes to achieve three outcomes:

• accelerating the rate that carbon is moved into a reservoir;

• maximizing the volume that is moved into a reservoir; and

• optimizing the efficiency of the process. 

The report paints a positive picture of the technological advancements in CDR methods like Direct Air Capture (DAC), Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and others. While these are still at various stages of development and deployment, the evidence suggests that these technologies are not only possible but are progressively becoming more efficient and scalable. 

 Having been involved in accelerator programs and met individuals and teams around the world working on CDR technologies, I continue to marvel at their ingenuity and commitment. When this many smart, talented and driven people and teams get focused on solving a problem some great things will happen. 

Is It Necessary?

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), achieving the 1.5°C target would almost certainly require the use of CDR technologies. The report emphasizes this point, suggesting that traditional methods of emissions reductions, though crucial, may not be enough. This is particularly important for industries like aviation and agriculture, where emissions are challenging to eliminate entirely. 

 As shown below, each of the main pathways to achieving significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions involve some level of CDR.

Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal (2023)

I consider myself a realist when I acknowledge the transition to a Net Zero economy is going to take time, will be uneven and unequal, and will require making difficult trade-offs. It’s hard to imagine achieving Net Zero without CDR playing a significant role. 

Is it affordable?

Here's where the conversation gets more nuanced. It's easy to dismiss CDR technologies as prohibitively expensive, but the report suggests this perspective is outdated. Costs have been coming down significantly, especially for methods like DAC. While it’s true financing CDR technologies at the scale needed remains a challenge, the article’s authors argue their economic feasibility is improving, especially when considered as part of a broader portfolio of climate solutions.

Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal (2023)

 Having spent time with both carbon offset buyers and creators, I can assure you that conversations are laser focused around three main areas: price, volume, and certainty.  And the conversation ends quickly if a CDR innovator can’t present a pathway to a price at or under $100/tonne.

 Just as the price of wind, solar and other renewables has come down to be marginally competitive with traditional power generation, some forms of CDR will attain commercial scale application by being price competitive, achieve large scale volume, and offer a high degree of certainty. There are no guarantees right now which technologies will achieve this – although I’m betting that our work at CO2 Lock Corp. will be one of those technologies that will achieve commercialization.

Concluding Thoughts

 I have asked myself countless times over the past several years – does CDR make sense? I find myself agreeing with the article’s assertion that CDR technologies are a vital part of a multi-pronged strategy to combat climate change. It is not an "either-or" situation with emissions reductions; rather, it's a "both-and" scenario.

However, it's important to counterbalance this optimism with caution. While technological advancements are promising, regulatory frameworks and ethical considerations around land use, biodiversity, and social equity have yet to catch up.  There’s a lot of work to do in these areas. 

To those who've asked me about CDR: yes, it is possible; yes, it is necessary; and no, it is not an unattainable luxury we can’t afford. The real question is: can we afford to ignore it?

Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Let's drive this critical conversation forward.