"Adapting to Growth"-Midwest Solar Expo

Last week I had the pleasure of attending the first ever virtual Midwest Solar Conference (June 15-17, 2020). Covid-19 is not halting the growth of the solar industry, just forcing it to adapt like everyone else. Initially, I was skeptical of the virtual setting, but it turned out to be a good way to access information. The conference was filled with keynotes, talks on specific issues, and a virtual expo hall to talk directly with companies supporting the industry. Walking around “The Sims” like virtual world, I felt engaged and was able to connect with others.

I would like to give a summary of the conference and the main topics of discussion. If I had to identify a theme of all the talks during the Midwest Solar Expo, it would be “Adapting to Growth”. There was no question to the viability and demand of solar in our future. Instead talks navigated policy, financial, and technical roadblocks spanning all scales of the industry from residential to utility.

On the policy side, it became apparent that policy can be a productive force, but also cause unforeseen issues. We can see that in Illinois where funds from the 2016 Future Energy Jobs Act were not enough to cover the interest in community solar projects. The demand was so high that funds ran out and projects were put in a lottery for acceptance. This left many projects by the wayside. In addition, it appears as though there are not enough resources to handle the influx of permitting and required workforce to efficiently develop. Large influxes of capital when resources aren’t available can exacerbate what some in the industry affectionately call the “Solar Coaster”. I am no expert in policy, but I do understand that policies can drive innovation or cause stagnation. For those who do have the power to affect policy I hope that they take a holistic approach to balance progress and feasibility. This should include balancing resources across the energy field in wind, natural gas, coal, and nuclear.

On the technical side, I was impressed by the midday keynote from Dan Shugar at NEXTracker. The technology he is promoting from NEXTracker is not exceptionally complicated. It boils down to two main patented technologies. The first is row to row tracking for optimizing hilly landscapes that may cause some panels to shade each other at different times of day and year. The second is managing weather through satellite data. In diffuse light scenarios it turns out flatting the panels is better than directing them towards the sun. In the right parts of the world these technologies produce a 1-2% increase in energy production. Now, 1‑2% does not sound like a lot, but it reminds me of my time in the oil industry where 1-2% increased production has massive implication on the viability and profitability of a project. If anything, talking about a 1-2% production increase excites me as it opens viability of larger scale projects in less sun intense locations. Additionally, the weather data has helped NEXTracker protect its assets in hail, snow, and high wind scenarios which can help solar farms become more insurable, also increasing viability of projects. These technical changes show me the maturing nature of solar and ongoing innovation.

On, the financial side there are distinct differences between scale of projects. Generally, price per kWh decreases with the size of the installation, with residential being the most expensive and utility being the least. The difficulty of the project tends to have the opposite trend increasing with increased scale. Small scale project viability comes down to personal choice and already available roof/land space. As the size increases more investors are involved and higher scrutiny for rate of return.

One of the last sessions of the conference touched on the difficulties of large scale solar, titled “Getting to Gigawatts with Utility-Scale Solar”. Utility scale solar is the space I personally expect needs to grow to rapidly add the amount of clean energy needed for our future. It also has two large roadblocks. First, is contract negotiation to properly distribute risks, costs, and profits. Second is interconnection to the grid. Contract negotiations is difficult because the space is relatively new for utilities and solar is not dispatchable like the traditional utility infrastructure. Until storage becomes more viable, dispatchability will always be a problem for wind and solar. It changes how investors and utilities view solar as an energy source. Even when there is a good case for a solar project based on land availability and local energy demand, access to a substation can be a problem. The infrastructure isn’t necessarily built for the distribution and a single project cannot typically afford the costs to build a new substation. If we are going to be serious about building out solar, we are going to need to be creative in how we negotiate who pays for, builds, and profits from the grid infrastructure needed.

Finally, I’d like to touch on one other panel discussion during the conference titled, “The Conflicting Interests of Residential V. Commercial V. Utility”. We currently live in a media world that thrives off clickbait titles and creating division between groups. The title of the discussion sounded like there was animosity in the different solar sectors; the panelists did not appear to have that same animosity. If anything, they supported each other to grow the solar industry. There is a place for each segment based on the investor groups that they target; each group can learn from challenges each other face. The real conflicting interests go back to the core policy, financial, and technical roadblocks, as well as how solar fits into the total energy landscape.

From this conference, I came away inspired by the trajectory of the industry. If I look to the future, I am not concerned about growth, but interested in how solar and wind will work together to displace fossil fuels on our energy grid. The first 10% of renewables on the grid is relatively easy, beyond that there is questions of the dispatchability, competition with existing fossil fuel assets, and building of infrastructure to tie together the new renewable assets. I look forward to seeing how this industry navigates its roadblocks and I look forward to being be a part of how this industry “Adapts to Growth”.