2024 US Presidential Election's Impact on Nonprofit Programs
What impact does the 2024 US Presidential Election have on charitable giving? The answer might surprise you. While the data shows that political and nonprofit donors are largely distinct pools, this does not mean that the 2024 Presidential Election cycle will not impact nonprofit organizations.
In the 2024 MooreCast report, Greg Fox, Chief Strategy Officer at Moore, shares three studies. One that found in the last decade of presidential campaign fundraising there was no effect on charitable giving. A second study found that people who gave to political campaigns increased their giving in election years (non-political givers didn’t). And a third study showed a decrease in charitable giving when political increases… by a mere .7%.
This is likely because, in the past, charitable giving dwarfed political giving. In 2020, the Center for Responsive Politics estimated the election that year cost about $14 billion. 2024 will be higher than that, but charitable giving will likely top $500 billion. That is less than four percent of overall charitable giving. Political donors and traditional charitable donors are often different cohorts. Political donors tend to be younger, are more likely to be evenly split between men and women, and typically reside in more diverse and urban communities than the typical charitable donor.
All this to say, while the election won’t significantly impact charitable giving, there will be significant impacts on media spending and patterns.
Impact of Political Media Spend
Political media spending in traditional and digital media channels continues to balloon cycle over cycle. AdImpact projects that the 2023-2024 cycle will be the most expensive of all time, with ad spending topping $10.2B, a 13% increase from 2019-2020.
With the increased demand, we will likely see increased media costs across all channels. We predict an impact to revenue and giving as charitable organizations will likely have to spend more to stay flat. This means, the organizations that aren’t planning to increase their budget will see an impact with increases in impression costs, as nonprofits will be up against the major political spending.
The bulk of political media spend will likely fall in the 6-8 weeks before Election Day. There will be other moments throughout the year where we should anticipate increased costs, eyeball competition, and increased noise. We recommend that any major tentpole campaigns that fall in September and October and include a significant media component be shifted earlier in the year to mitigate the impact of increased costs. This year, there will be more competition than ever.
Regional organizations focused on “purple” or swing districts are likely to see a heavier and more sustained impact in media than national organizations, as both Democratic and Republican-affiliated groups seek to increase their impression share among persuadable voters.
The week or two before each Federal Election Commission quarterly reporting deadline (this year on March 30, June 30, and September 30) will see drastic rises in fundraising-focused paid media as parties, candidates, and committees seek to report the highest revenues possible. You should expect increased competition, particularly on paid social and email.
The SOP for the last two election cycles, media platforms will roll out policies to reduce the impact of election interference and disinformation. On paid search and social, increased scrutiny will be paid (both manually and algorithmically) to social issues and election-related advertising. Organizations that frequently run social issue ads and use "paid for by" disclaimers on Meta will likely see an increase in automated ad rejections. Moore recommends building out multiple variants of ads with differing degrees of severity of language to ensure that ads can continue to run while automated rejections are appealed.
Meta will institute a blackout on all new social issue (disclaimer) ads for the final week before the election. Any ads with at least one impression before that period will be allowed to continue to deliver. In the 2020 Presidential Election, the blackout was kept in place through December. However, Meta has stated this year will be a shorter timeframe. Meta has not yet released a formal start and end date for the blackout.
Historically, organizations more aligned with the unsuccessful party have seen an increase in post-election revenue. However, several factors that make this election cycle unique underscore that it is too soon to fully project the impact on post-election fundraising.
Like every election cycle, we will continue to see high media spend. Moore will continue to monitor the environment closely and provide updates as relevant.
For any questions about the impact of the US Presidential Election on charitable organizations, connect with Mike Crump, Vice President, Digital Media: [email protected]