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Weekly jobless claims have dropped to 233,000, beating expectations and signaling a positive trend in the labor market. The latest data shows a decline of 17,000 from the previous week, coming in below the estimated 240,000. Stay updated on this positive development here: [Link to article] #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #Economy

Jobless claims grew last week even above expectations, raising concerns about a cooling of the labor market for those who were anticipating a "soft landing." 📉 🔎 Recent data covered in Reuters reveals a rise in initial unemployment claims in the U.S., signaling a cooling labor market as we close out the year. Last week saw an increase of 12,000 claims, bringing the total to 218,000, slightly above economists' predictions. 📊 Context: This uptick contrasts with November's job creation boost, where 199,000 new jobs were added, marking an improvement from October's 150,000. However, the unemployment rate did see a slight decrease to 3.7%. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Stance: In response to the evolving job market and inflation trends, the Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing its hike campaign. Since March 2022, the Fed has increased the rate by a total of 525 basis points, reaching a current range of 5.25%-5.50%. Let's see whether they lower it further in Q1 of 2024! 🤔 The increase in continuous unemployment claims suggests challenges in job market re-entry and affirms concerns about the structural soundness of our labor market. With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, the focus is on balancing employment growth with inflation control. #Unemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Economy #JobGrowth

💼 Jobless Claims Data Show 'Warning Sign' for the US Labor Market 📉 Imagine waking up to find your steady job is no longer there. For nearly 1.84 million Americans last week, this was their reality. The Department of Labor's latest figures reveal a significant shift in our labor market, marking the highest number of continuing applications for unemployment benefits since November 2021. Meet Sarah, a dedicated marketing professional who found herself among these statistics. Despite her skills and experience, Sarah has been struggling to find a new position for weeks. She's part of a growing trend, as the 4-week moving average of weekly jobless claims has increased to 236,000—the highest rate since September 2023. This isn't just a number; it's a warning sign. The rising jobless claims signal a cooling labor market where finding new employment is becoming increasingly challenging for many. What does this mean for investors? 📊 Economic Slowdown: Higher unemployment can lead to decreased consumer spending, affecting company revenues and stock prices. Market Volatility: Uncertainty in the labor market often translates to fluctuations in the stock market. Investment Opportunities: Certain sectors, like consumer staples and utilities, may offer more stability in uncertain times. 🔎 What should you do? Diversify your portfolio to manage risk. Monitor economic indicators closely. Consult with a financial advisor to adjust your investment strategy. Stay informed and proactive. The labor market is a crucial indicator of economic health, and its current state could impact your investments. 👉 Ready to navigate these turbulent times? Start by reviewing your portfolio and discussing your strategy with a trusted advisor. #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Unemployment #FinancialPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #MarketTrends

Higher rates are (finally) catching up with the US economy…whether enough for the Federal Reserve Board to cut rates or not…time will tell Unemployment rate higher Prior months negatively revised Wage growth cooling ISM index @ multi-year lows $5 McDonald's value meal What else? #ISM #jobs #unemployment #wages #negativerevisions #useconomy #fed #inflation “There were other indications as well that the job market is continuing to cool. Average hourly earnings were up 3.9% in June from a year earlier, marking their smallest gain since 2021. The counts for both April and May were revised lower by a combined 111,000 jobs. The labor force participation rate, the share of working-age people who were employed or seeking work, ticked up to 62.6%—an indication that more people entered the labor market.”

#Economy | U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and the increase in annual #wages fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years, but it is probably too early to expect that the Federal Reserve Board will start cutting interest rates before September as the #labormarket remains fairly tight.

Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since September 2022 as Labor Market Defies Fed https://lnkd.in/endyMc8m #JoblessClaims #UnemploymentData #Economy #USEconomy #Unemployment #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Cooling #JobMarket #Channelchek

The numbers suggest that the labor market cooled off much faster than was previously thought and is not in as strong a position as believed. The Federal Reserve now also has a case to make a bigger cut in interest rates than initially anticipated come September.

Markets are hoping to get more clues on the state of the US job market today from the non farm payroll report. Traders place so much attention on this data point, but don't forget that the jobs number are subject to potential large swings in revisions (as we saw last annual revision was -800K). Looking at a range of data (surveys, jobless claims, job openings, ADP, Challenger job cuts, company commentaries etc), recent data has been mixed but point to a loosening job market. The question is how much weaker and is the Fed behind the curve. US job openings data out this week was lower than expected, and the job vacancy per unemployed ratio is back to where it was pre-pandemic. If the labour market has normalised to where it was, real policy rates are probably too high now and that is why rate cuts are justifiable. Since the Fed's tightening cycle began, a decline in job vacancy rate has not resulted in a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate (what the Beveridge curve captures). But that has started to change recently as the unemployment rate has now risen 0.9% from its trough. Trends in labour market has momentum so this is a concern. If today's results are weak, that will boost the chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates by 0.5%. I spoke with BBC News this morning to discuss the market perspectives of this. RBC Brewin Dolphin #USjobs #USNFP #markets #USunemploymentrate #USlabourmarket

You can always count on me to give you bad news on top of bad news in the job market. The latest job report shows the economy added far fewer jobs than expected. What's not mentioned is the revisions from the previous two months. The figure for June was revised down by 61,000 and the figure for July was revised down by 25,000. It means the job market didn't just "soften considerably" as the Fed put it. It was crashing before the summer. There is no way that the job market can recover before the end of the year regardless of what the Fed does in the next three meetings in terms of rate cuts. This could have been avoided had the Fed started cutting rates in March or April when the real-time data for inflation already showed it is close to 2%. The Fed has so many smart economists working for them. Why they missed the mark so much is beyond me. #fedpolicy #fed #ratecuts #economy #jobmarket #augustjobreport #economicanalysis https://lnkd.in/dc78eak5

HAPPY LABOR DAY: The slow job growth in July has caught the Federal Reserve's eye, especially with the news that 810,000 fewer jobs were added between April 2023 and March 2024 than first reported. This downward revision has rattled the Fed. While jobs are still being added, the growth rate is slowing. Over the past decade, job growth has come chiefly from just three or four sectors, and this trend has become even more pronounced in the last year. In the past 12 months, Education and healthcare, Government, and Leisure and hospitality made up 75% of all job growth. However, these sectors aren't leading when it comes to wages. They only contributed 33% to wage growth. Tracking job growth in the top wage-earning sectors is essential to gauge changes in consumer spending. Next Friday's jobs report will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September. With inflation stuck around 2.6%, a weak jobs report could justify a rate cut.