The Hill’s Post

Transcript

Minutes after the hour and national political reporter for thehill.com, Julia Manchester, just released a new column on all this polling and joins us now. Good morning, Julia. Good morning, Anna, thanks for having me. So how much of A red flag is all this polling for Democrats? Will we start to see even more call for President Biden to step aside as candidate? Look, when we were talking about Virginia, I wouldn't say it's a red flag yet, but it's certainly concerning. Remember this latest poll from us at The Hill and Emerson College polling comes on the heels of a number of a number of different polls that have come out of Virginia this week. So this poll shows Trump leading Biden within the three-point margin of error in Virginia. Now, yesterday at Florida Atlantic University poll showed Biden leading, leading Trump by 5 points. And then of course, there was a Virginia. Commonwealth University poll released on Monday that showed Trump by two and then a New York Times poll that showed Biden up by two. So I think the point is that in a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the fact that we are at the he's within the margin of two to five points of President Trump. That's certainly a little concerning. But, and I will say that Democrats, I talked to point to polls in July of 20/20/2012, for example, that show Biden. Yeah, Excuse me. Former President Obama and then Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney tied at 44%. So Democrats saying it's a bit too early to be making these calls. Yeah. And we're just starting to get pulling out after the assassination attempt on Saturday and then Biden's COVID diagnosis yesterday and how that will impact things will have to wait and see. When we see polling out of Virginia, does that let us know, you know, can we read the tea leaves for any any swing states besides there? Look, I think what it shows is that if Biden is having this close of a race in a state that he won by two points in, the state that, you know, typically leans blue estate with very left-leaning population centers like Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs. If he's struggling here, then in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that there could be some struggles there as well. And we're seeing that polling out of those battleground states does show a very tight race. Between former President Trump and President Biden, so certainly concerning for Democrats right now. If you look at Virginia and try to then zoom out at the whole map, right, And seeing Democrat Tim Kaine still doing well there. Julia Manchester, thanks so much for your insight, analysis. Appreciate it. Thanks, Anna.