Nikkei ScoutAsia’s Post

Taiwan held national parliamentary and presidential #elections this week, with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, current Vice President “William” Lai Ching-te, winning the presidency. #Lai will be inaugurated May 20. Taiwanese companies and their clients, including multinational #technology firms, will face increased operational and regulatory threats over the next four months as #China responds to Lai’s victory and the support he received from countries like the US and #Japan. To undermine Lai, #Beijing will try to amplify divisions between the #DPP and the opposition, increasing the risk of domestic policy gridlock in #Taiwan this year.

Presidential #elections are underway in #Russia and #VladimirPutin is set to secure fifth term as the President. Voting is also underway in the annexed regions of #Ukraine for the next three days. How will the new era of Putin affect Russia's geopolitical relations with the West and #India? Watch video for more details

CONGRATULATIONS TO TAIWAN Lai Ching-te, the ruling party's candidate secures a historic victory in Taiwan’s presidential election, signalling a commitment to self-determination, social justice and external pressures. As Taiwan navigates the post-election landscape, geopolitical implications are expected, with strengthened ties with the U.S. and we at Global Politics Affairs (GPA) wish them well. #globalpoliticsaffairs #globalpolitics #taiwanelection #taiwan #elections

Vladimir Putin swore the oath of allegiance to the Russian Constitution at his inauguration for a record 5th term as the Russian President. As he further tightened his grip on power, he said that the country would emerge victorious and stronger from the current “difficult” period. With about 87% of the voteswith about 60 percent of precincts counted. Putin will overtake Joseph Stalin and become Russia’s longest-serving leader in more than 200 years. #russia #putin #europe #elections #ussr #russiaukraine #moscow #internationalrelations #geopolitics #thegeostrata

Great insights from the AnotherDay team on how #geopolitics are increasingly impacting businesses the world over #insurance #riskmanagement #riskassessment

This week, we update our scenario analysis surrounding the tail risk of a Taiwan Strait Crisis between Mainland #China and #Taiwan, China ahead of the latter’s 13 January presidential election. A DPP victory in the presidential election is forecast to slightly increase scenario risk over Q124. However, we anticipate DPP losses in the Legislative Yuan, which would result in a divided government, and China’s ongoing military purge will constrain cross-Strait risks in the short-term. The Taiwanese Stock Exchange tracks well with our measure of Taiwan/China Contingent IR Risk (corr = 0.67) since 2019 and our forecast for a very moderate post-election rise in this risk suggests that markets are unlikely to react strongly. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo [email protected] to learn more. #elections #Geopolitics

China Strengthens Claims on Taiwan In a quote drawing criticism from pro-democracy and -sovereignty advocates everywhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping ushered in the new year by doubling down on his ambitions to reunify Mainland China and Taiwan, stating that the two would “surely be reunified.” The statement was part of the CCP’s New Year’s Eve address to the people, but more importantly, it comes just two weeks before Taiwan’s presidential election where voters will decide between the pro-sovereignty incumbent party and a much more China-friendly challenger. Clearly, the election is an important one for China which would benefit from a sign that Taiwan would be in favor of such a takeover, and in addition to increasingly aggressive statements (Xi reportedly told President Biden of his plans when the two met in SF in November) and increasing its military presence around the island, China is also being accused of election tampering. #China #Taiwan #xijinping #TaiwanStrate #elections