An overly pessimistic view of a stock's value can attract new investors and discourage sellers.
Investors like companies with consistent and well-supported revenue growth.
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Among the 280 companies trading on the Philippine Stock Exchange, this company reported revenues of greater than 50 billion pesos in the last 12 months through September 2023.
Consistent and well-supported revenue growth reflects the ability to generate future profits, maintain competitiveness, and adapt to changing market conditions.
The reported >50 billion pesos mark an all-time high, 1.8 times their pre-pandemic levels. The company's EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin is 1.9 percentage points wider than its pre-pandemic rate. Operating income is at an all-time high, 2.1 times its pre-pandemic level. Cash and marketable securities are 2.2 times their pre-pandemic levels, and debt is just a minimal share of common equity.
Consistent and well-supported revenue growth leads to increased 'free' cash flows and, ultimately, higher stock prices.
The company's free cash (or cash flow from operating activities after-tax interest expense – capital expenditure) falls within the top 6% in terms of percentile excluding banks, larger than Universal Robina Corp, Wilcon Depot, Century Pacific Food, etc. Its return on invested capital (ROIC) is 3.7 times higher than the average ROIC of 174 companies with positive ROICs.
The stock's price is now 50%, 204%, and 559% higher than its levels 1, 3, and 5 years ago, respectively.
Interestingly, despite the substantial rise in the stock's price, the current market price appears to mirror sellers' overly pessimistic view of the company. By taking the current market price and estimating the expected growth of revenue, etc., through the free cash flow that justifies the market price (commonly referred to as 'reverse-engineering' DCF), one can determine confidently if a stock is undervalued or not.
Given the current market price of the stock, sellers seem to be assuming declines in revenues of -1.2% a year in the next 3 years before falling to 46 billion pesos by Year 10 - this is overly pessimistic.
In the last 40 quarters, this company's annual revenues declined once, or 1 out of 40, by just 2.3%, and growth ranged between -2.3% to 19%, 80% of the time. 20% of the time, growth exceeded 19%.
The stock is undervalued and may attract new investors.
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Institutional investors should consider investing in this stock.
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