Nationwide Building Society’s Post

Re house prices and supply/demand, Bank of England economists say :- 'Real house prices in the UK have almost quadrupled over the past 40 years, substantially outpacing real income growth. Meanwhile, rental yields have been trending downwards — particularly since the mid‑90s. This paper reconciles these observations by analysing the contributions of the drivers of house prices. It shows that the rise in house prices relative to incomes between 1985 and 2018 can be more than accounted for by the substantial decline in the real risk‑free interest rate observed over the period. This is slightly offset by net increases in home‑ownership costs from higher rates of tax. Changes in the risk‑free real rate are a crucial driver of changes in house prices — the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‑linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.' Such factors are just bigger than the performance of the Hunter's Hill planning team, and more global. Look: several international reserve banks have done similar papers and I have quoted them in my posts. This is not an eccentric position: this is a mainstream position for economists. Money matters.

In November, UK house prices experienced a notable 0.2% increase, marking the most significant annual improvement since February 2023. Despite this upturn, house prices remain 2% lower than the previous year, with the average house price now standing at £258,557, slightly down from October's £259,423. Robert Gardner, the chief economist at Nationwide, remarked, "UK house prices rose by 0.2% in November, following seasonal adjustments. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, leading to an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth from -3.3% in October to -2.0%. Although still modest, this represents the strongest performance in nine months." However, Gardner tempered expectations of a rapid market rebound, citing ongoing cost-of-living pressures, subdued consumer confidence, and a lack of vigor in new buyer enquiries. While acknowledging the potential for lower borrowing costs, he emphasized that policymakers remain cautious about discussing interest rate cuts, considering both declining inflation and persistent domestic price pressures. Gardner concluded that, despite these challenges, modestly lower borrowing costs, coupled with steady income growth, could support a gradual rise in market activity in the coming quarters. Get in touch with us today and see how we can help you take the next step in your property journey. Call us now 0116 235 5232. #ukpropertymarket #tranquilityhomes #ukpropertynews

UK house prices rose 0.2% last month, but remain 2% lower than a year ago. Robert Gardner, our Chief Economist, commented “UK house prices rose by 0.2% in November, after taking account of seasonal effects. This was the third successive monthly increase and resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth from -3.3% in October, to -2.0%. While this remains weak, it is the strongest outturn for nine months.” Read the full report: http://spr.ly/6049REDx1

UK House Prices rise 1.7% year on year 📈 The average UK house price increased by 1.7% in the 12 months to June 2023, reaching £288,000. This is £5,000 more than the same period last year but £5,000 below the peak in November 2022. By country for June 2023: - England: £306,000, up by 1.9%. - Wales: £213,000, up by 0.6%. - Northern Ireland: £174,000, up by 2.7%. - Scotland: £189,000, no significant change (0.0%). Regional differences in England: - The North East recorded the highest annual increase (4.7%) with an average house price of £161,000. - London had the highest average price (£528,000) but experienced a decrease of 0.6% over the year. This is the first negative annual inflation for London since November 2019. #houseprices #housingmarket

The contradictory headlines continue to amuse us. #PropertyNews 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 - 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚. New data appears to show that the average UK house price would need to increase by over £13,400 just to keep pace with inflation. An estate agency has analysed current inflation levels and house price growth across 62 major UK towns and cities to reveal how the current value of bricks and mortar is actually performing when pitted against the wider health of the economy. Inflation has continued to fall in recent months and the latest figures show that it is now at its lowest point in tow years at 4.6 per cent. However the latest figures from the Land Registry show that house prices have fallen by 0.1 per cent year on year. This means house price performance is currently trailing inflation to the tune of 4.7 per cent and the average UK house price would have to climb by £13,404 in order to keep up with inflation. At a local level, every city analysed by the agency, Yopa, is currently underperforming when it comes to the balance between estimated local inflation levels and house price growth. An agency spokesperson says: “The property market has proved resilient so far this year and while house price growth has slowed, we simply haven’t seen the drastic market correction that was so widely predicted at the start of the year. Inflation is also falling and this means we’ve likely seen the end of increasing interest rates.” Via PropertyInvestorToday.

Latest ONS House Price Index Data, key points: In the 12 months to November 2023, UK average house prices fell by 2.1% to £285,000, a £6,000 decrease from the previous year. During this period, prices in England dropped to £302,000 (down 2.9%), and in Wales to £213,000 (down 2.4%), while Scotland saw a 2.2% increase to £194,000. In contrast, Northern Ireland experienced a 2.1% rise to £180,000 in the year to Quarter 3 2023. The smallest decrease in England was in the North East (0.4%), and the largest in London (6.0%). #propertymarketinsights #propertydata #versed #versedconsultancy

🏡 UK house prices: What will happen in the next 12 months? When should buyers buy? Today, The Nationwide Building Society announced surprising trends in prices: ⬆️ Up 0.9% month-on-month in October 2023 ⬇️ Down 3.3% year-on-year since October 2022 As a buyer (a few obvious point): 🟢 1. You want to buy at a time when prices are low (in the same way that you want to invest in shares when the stock market is at a low value) 🟢 2. You want to buy when interest rates are low (as your cost of borrowing is lower) 🟢 3. You want to buy when you have sufficient capital (to pay for the deposit, legal fees and other costs on purchase) Therefore, as a buyer you're trying to make an assessment of the above points, among other factors. So what will happen to '1. prices?' Nationwide, have said that house prices have fallen by an average of £35,000 in the past year. So it might have been a good idea to have waited in the past 12 months. Point 1 is intrinsically linked to points 2 and 3. Interest rates impact greatly on borrowings and savings, i.e. the availability of capital. Therefore, having a view on what will happen to interest rates may affect your view on property prices. UK interest rates had been expected to rise to above 6.0%, but predictions have been lowered in recent months with the improvement of inflation. Many analysts are predicting rates to be in a similar position to the Bank of England rate today at 5.25%. There are other factors of course that impact on UK house prices, including wages, inflation, levels of employment and so on. What do you think will happen to UK property prices in the next 12 months? ❔❔❔ #ukproperty #ukpropertymarket #interestrates #propertyinvestment

The average house price in the UK fell by 2.1% to £285,000 in the 12 months to December according to the Office for National Statistics House Price Index. This is down from a drop of 1.3% in the 12 months to October.

Key Points from the UK's House Price Index released today: https://lnkd.in/ez_mXsyy - Average UK house prices increased by 0.6% in the 12 months to July 2023 (provisional estimate), down from a revised 1.9% in June 2023. -The average UK house price was £290,000 in July 2023, which is £2,000 higher than 12 months ago, but £2,000 below the recent peak in November 2022. -Average house prices increased over the 12 months to July 2023, to £309,000 in England (0.6%), £192,000 in Scotland (0.1%), while average house prices in Wales decreased to £216,000 (negative 0.1%). -Average house prices increased by 2.7% to £174,000 in the year to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 in Northern Ireland. -The North East saw the highest annual percentage change of all English regions in the 12 months to July 2023 (2.7%), while the South West saw the lowest (negative 1.0%). #RedCardinal #Property #PropertyInvestment #RealEstate #PropertyNews #City #Realestateinvestment #PropertyAgency #Propertyconsultancy #UKPropertyMarket #Homebuyer Lewis Banks John Tovell