The latest look at the Core PCE Index shows a continued downward trend in inflation. How close is it to the Fed’s 2% goal? Will it be enough for a Q3 rate cut? Find out in this week’s Market Update. https://lnkd.in/eHG-hMAG #movementmortgage #marketupdate #housingmarket #interestrates
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The latest look at the Core PCE Index shows a continued downward trend in inflation. How close is it to the Fed’s 2% goal? Will it be enough for a Q3 rate cut? Find out in this week’s Market Update. https://lnkd.in/eHG-hMAG #movementmortgage #marketupdate #housingmarket #interestrates
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IS THE FED GIVING IN? Even though February's CPI and PPI inflation numbers were hotter than expected, the Fed still hinted at 2-3 rate cuts for this year at their monetary policy meeting Wednesday. Does this mean that the FOMC is loosening their stance on their 2% inflation target? They didn't say that, and I'm not sure they ever will. How else do you explain the committee reiterating their estimate of 2-3 rate cuts when inflation has been higher than anticipated for two consecutive months now? I personally believe the first cut will not happen until July. And I think Chairman Powell and the rest of the committee know they still have to cut rates this year, regardless of the inflation numbers, to get the US's interest payments lower on our own national debt. They may never admit it, but the Fed's new inflation target my have gone from 2% to a range of 2%-3%. #questions #mortgage #rates
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The Fed’s favored inflation measure, annual Core PCE, declined to 2.9% for the 12 months ending in December. This was the first reading below 3% in nearly three years and an important step towards the Fed’s 2% target. With the Fed’s next meeting on January 30-31, the markets will be closely listening for hints regarding a pivot to rate cuts later this year. #inflation #mortgage #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageexpert
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Branch Manager | NMLS #5953 | 208-724-0963 | Licensed ID, OR, WA, MT, AZ | AZ BK 0906702 | Equal Housing Opportunity | American Pacific Mortgage NMLS 1850
Inflation was hotter than expected in March, continuing a trend we’ve seen in recent months, as rising energy and shelter costs added to pricing pressure. While annual inflation still remains well below the peaks seen in 2022, these stubbornly high inflation readings could delay the Fed’s timing for rate cuts this year. #americanpacificmortgage #cpi #inflation #mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow
Consumer Price Index (March 2024)
mbshighway.com
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The Fed has hiked hiked rates 11 times since March 2022 to slow the economy and curb inflation. And "core" CPI has already eased significantly since peaking at 6.6% last year. Will this progress be enough for the Fed to pause further hikes? #cpi #inflation #mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow #TEGfcu #TEGMortgage
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I empower the pros with macro insights to build resilience for a challenging and uncertain economic landscape. LinkedIn Top Voice | Zillow Sr Economist | Quantitative Research Group Executive Advisor
🚨PCE index up, CPI, PPI all up... Good News Or Bad News? It's all about energy prices ... and there isn't much the #Fed can do about that. But core inflation is still moderating and closing in on the Fed's target. Real spending barely increased. ➡️ Headline PCE index: 0.4% up from 0.2% last month. Core PCE index: 0.1% down from 0.2% last month. This is good news if you were betting on an end to the Fed rate hiking campaign. Deeper dive later today... Stay tuned! #inflation #pce #economicoutlook #yields #mortgage
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Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat after a second round of inflation data this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.521%, just below the open at 4.548%. Yesterday’s CPI data sent treasury yields higher as data fueled concerns that rate cuts may not begin when the Fed meets in June. PPI released this morning with economists forecasting a rise of 0.3% in March vs an actual rise of 0.2% and core PPI increasing by 0.2% , which came in as expected. Overall PPI appears to have provided some temporary market relief after Yesterday’s CPI print. Initial jobless claims released this morning as well, falling to 211,000 claims against forecast of 217,000. The afternoon will be filled with Fed speaking engagements which could provide additional insight into the Fed’s outlook going forward. Mortgage rates will likely print flat to slightly better all else constant this morning.
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The CPI numbers came out today, and the numbers went the way we expected (sort of). The headline reading came in UP .6% - bringing the year over year reading from 3.3% to 3.7%. On the core side, (stripping out food and energy prices), year over year the number changed from 4.7% to 4.3%. So inflation IS in fact slowing. Which in turn means, the Fed hikes have been working. Stay tuned for what the Fed discussed at their next meeting in 10 days - it will be interesting to see their comments on this. . . #cpinumber #cpireport #fedreport #inflationdata #inflationexplained #homeloans #mortgagebroker #crosscountrymortgage #mortgagemamba #wescottthis
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2/29/24 Today was a big day on the economic calendar as we received Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation data. The data came in as expected, as inflation lowered year-over-year to a 2.4% increase. The PCE Core, which strips out volatile food and energy data, showed a 2.8% year-over-year increase. The Core reading is considered to be a more accurate depiction of inflation. The Fed's often mentioned goal for inflation is 2%, and we are inching closer to that with a year-over-year drop. Jobless Claims data came in a little higher than expected with initial claims at 215k and continuous claims at 1.905 million. #Mortgage #RealEstate
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