Don’t say it too loudly, but private equity is rethinking its aversion to oil and gas - especially gas. Buyside interest is still dampened by fears of jumping into a super cycle without a clear way out again (not to mention how to square the ESG angle with an investment committee) but an attractive transaction window has emerged for those with an appetite for highly cash generative businesses.
Investing into a cyclical market that faces a backdrop of shifting policy and regulatory levers and is not for the faint hearted.
That said, several sponsors are now factoring into their thinking that the investible lifespan of the industry will far outlive their holding period. Importantly, in all but the most climate-conscious demand scenarios it would also outlive the holding period of the subsequent investor – so a business acquired now should, theoretically, find a ready buyer pool in five years’ time.
However, the fact that assumptions around demand can shift so dramatically demanding on geopolitical direction of travel will continue to deter many from re-entering the oil and gas market, which results in two outcomes for those who are willing to invest. Oil and gas-related acquisitions will remain good value for money from a transaction multiple standpoint, and those investing will need to have a clear view on the long-term market outlook and commercial positioning of new portfolio companies.
The best way to understand those market, commercial and technical dynamics is to talk to Calash.
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