Melissa Best’s Post

#DryBulk Market: #FreightRates and #Ships’ Prices on the Rise #shipping https://lnkd.in/dGdg35Ev

One of the issues that has not been discussed but I believe is also adding to the difficulty in the market right now is the lack of adequate forecasts. Note that I said, "adequate." Not perfect. Not even accurate. Adequate would be a step up for many importers. It has been astonishing to me recently the challenge it seems to be for importers to estimate their volume needs for a reasonable stretch of time. Some clearly are not sure how to figure this out. Some stubbornly refuse to produce. Either way, it is making the situation we are all living in now more difficult. These ships are not planes who have limited cargo space that are planned, packed and staged within hours of their departure. They are not greyhound buses that stop at their ports and just "pick up whatever containers are laying around." They are massively huge vessels moving in some cases over 10-12,000 40' containers. And their load plans are often organized weeks in advance. It is the goal of any vessel operator to maximize their load factors, and this does not happen haphazardly. The largest shippers in the world are better, though not perfect, at forecasting. But they understand the need to tell their carrier partners what to plan for, so they typically know within some reasonable wiggle-room how many containers they are going to move during the contract year. They then give the carriers and/or forwarders a monthly or quarterly rolling forecast. This isn't rocket science, folks. If you really are not sure or cannot fathom how your orders or products will compute in terms of how many containers, ask your supplier to give you those numbers. Trust me, they know exactly how much of their product will fit in a container. Or work with your forwarders. They, too, can help here. Either looking at your historical data or packaging specs, they can work with you to estimate your needs and future outlook. Either way, this needs to become a mandatory requirement especially in times of limited space and capacity. The customers begging for space with little or no time available to wait for a booking are doing, most importantly, themselves a disservice. In times like this, forecasting is king. Otherwise, you are truly at the mercy of the market; you will pay the most and wait the longest. #importers #forecasting #forecasts #carriers #forwarders #freightforwarding #nvocc #capacity #spacecrunch #spotrates #spotmarket #congestion

One of the issues that has not been discussed but I believe is also adding to the difficulty in the market right now is the lack of adequate forecasts. Note that I said, "adequate." Not perfect. Not even accurate. Adequate would be a step up for many importers. It has been astonishing to me recently the challenge it seems to be for importers to estimate their volume needs for a reasonable stretch of time. Some clearly are not sure how to figure this out. Some stubbornly refuse to produce. Either way, it is making the situation we are all living in now more difficult. These ships are not planes who have limited cargo space that are planned, packed and staged within hours of their departure. They are not greyhound buses that stop at their ports and just "pick up whatever containers are laying around." They are massively huge vessels moving in some cases over 10-12,000 40' containers. And their load plans are often organized weeks in advance. It is the goal of any vessel operator to maximize their load factors, and this does not happen haphazardly. The largest shippers in the world are better, though not perfect, at forecasting. But they understand the need to tell their carrier partners what to plan for, so they typically know within some reasonable wiggle-room how many containers they are going to move during the contract year. They then give the carriers and/or forwarders a monthly or quarterly rolling forecast. This isn't rocket science, folks. If you really are not sure or cannot fathom how your orders or products will compute in terms of how many containers, ask your supplier to give you those numbers. Trust me, they know exactly how much of their product will fit in a container. Or work with your forwarders. They, too, can help here. Either looking at your historical data or packaging specs, they can work with you to estimate your needs and future outlook. Either way, this needs to become a mandatory requirement especially in times of limited space and capacity. The customers begging for space with little or no time available to wait for a booking are doing, most importantly, themselves a disservice. In times like this, forecasting is king. Otherwise, you are truly at the mercy of the market; you will pay the most and wait the longest. #importers #forecasting #forecasts #carriers #forwarders #freightforwarding #nvocc #capacity #spacecrunch #spotrates #spotmarket #congestion

One of the issues that has not been discussed but I believe is also adding to the difficulty in the market right now is the lack of adequate forecasts. Note that I said, "adequate." Not perfect. Not even accurate. Adequate would be a step up for many importers. It has been astonishing to me recently the challenge it seems to be for importers to estimate their volume needs for a reasonable stretch of time. Some clearly are not sure how to figure this out. Some stubbornly refuse to produce. Either way, it is making the situation we are all living in now more difficult. These ships are not planes who have limited cargo space that are planned, packed and staged within hours of their departure. They are not greyhound buses that stop at their ports and just "pick up whatever containers are laying around." They are massively huge vessels moving in some cases over 10-12,000 40' containers. And their load plans are often organized weeks in advance. It is the goal of any vessel operator to maximize their load factors, and this does not happen haphazardly. The largest shippers in the world are better, though not perfect, at forecasting. But they understand the need to tell their carrier partners what to plan for, so they typically know within some reasonable wiggle-room how many containers they are going to move during the contract year. They then give the carriers and/or forwarders a monthly or quarterly rolling forecast. This isn't rocket science, folks. If you really are not sure or cannot fathom how your orders or products will compute in terms of how many containers, ask your supplier to give you those numbers. Trust me, they know exactly how much of their product will fit in a container. Or work with your forwarders. They, too, can help here. Either looking at your historical data or packaging specs, they can work with you to estimate your needs and future outlook. Either way, this needs to become a mandatory requirement especially in times of limited space and capacity. The customers begging for space with little or no time available to wait for a booking are doing, most importantly, themselves a disservice. In times like this, forecasting is king. Otherwise, you are truly at the mercy of the market; you will pay the most and wait the longest. #importers #forecasting #forecasts #carriers #forwarders #freightforwarding #nvocc #capacity #spacecrunch #spotrates #spotmarket #congestion