Some of us should be bankrupt.
But we're not....
Made famous by Nassim Taleb, the term Black Swan explains the impact of an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
Covid was a Black Swan that should have wiped a lot of hotels out, but we made it.
Did we survive for the right reasons?
Around the world, governments handed out a record amount of subsidies to our industry. What would have happened if they didn't?
In our line of business, we are used to leverage. We stretch ourselves, we grow.
But one has to ask, will the government be our saviour the next time a Black Swan comes our way? Can the government continually print their way out of trouble?
Interest rates continue to rise and just like your house mortgage no longer makes sense, will your hotel mortgage feel the same upon renewal?
Perhaps with limited supply entering the market, high interest rates will just be absorbed, however, what is the worst-case scenario?
Rapid expansion is always a strategy, but when it comes to many hotelier portfolios, an argument can be made to focus on sustaining more than just growing.
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#hoteliers #hotels #hotelmanagement
Senior Vice President / Manager Commercial Real Estate Department at Liberty Bank - CT
2wGreat Job Joe as always!