Grid Status’ Post

This morning, a nuclear unit in Texas unexpectedly tripped. What happens when a large generator suddenly goes offline? Using data on Grid Status, we take a look at how pooled resources and advanced operational strategies prevent significant disruptions when shocks occur. Immediately, grid frequency declined. An excursion below critical levels required a fast response by ERCOT to ensure stability of the grid. In this case, ERCOT swiftly deployed ancillary services, including a significant amount of batteries providing ECRS, to boost the frequency back to normal. Electricity prices responded shortly after the trip. There is out of the ordinary negative price action at the STP nuclear plant pointing to it as the likely source of the outage. To compensate for the outage, some generation must be increased and some decreased. Price signals then reconfigure the generation output in West Texas at 7:40am CT, causing some units to increase output and some to curtail. Is data like this important to you? See this data and more on Grid Status.

Tonight's peak load in the PJM Interconnection is forecasted to be at its highest level in over a decade. In the animation here, we can see how the forecast evolved from nothing special to record-setting levels over the past week. Currently forecasted at 154 GW, peak load from 5-6pm EDT is likely to break the system operator’s 2024 summer forecast by several GWs. Getting forecasts correct is tricky but is especially important during a lengthy heat wave. A week ago, PJM didn’t predict that today would break their summer forecast, but by yesterday it looked like a sure thing. And while the forecast has dropped a bit today, it still looks like an easy beat of the 2024 summer forecast. This is the opposite of 2023 where the actual peak came in substantially below the forecast. Over the past decade, east coast markets have often had summer peaks under their seasonal forecasts, although recent load growth forecasts in PJM suggest that trend is likely to change. With an increasing rate of growth, heat doesn’t have to be record-breaking for demand peaks to beat expectations. At the currently forecasted level, it’s possible that today's peak will be the first new addition to the top ten all-time peak load list in over a decade (pending final adjustment by PJM). When we ingest data at Grid Status, we take special care to track all “vintages” of any forecast we publish, so our users can decide which one is most relevant to their use case.

Yesterday NYISO provided a nice primer into some of its major price-driving congestion patterns. West to East, Upstate to Downstate, North to rest of state, and Southeast NY to upstate. The only missing congestion was NYC into Long Island, which we'll see more of this summer. While people get excited about $4k or $5k prices in ERCOT, for a few intervals Long Island actually had some of the highest LMPs we saw this spring, approaching $7,000/MWh. We're gearing up to release the public price map so that everyone can stay on top of the grid in real-time this summer.

California and Texas are reaching new heights in utility-scale solar generation this year. While both grids are approaching 20 GW peaks in solar production, the backdrop of each grid is markedly different. CAISO’s solar build-out represents a larger proportion of the region’s much smaller peak demand and is nearly matched by behind-the-meter (BTM) solar capacity. Additionally, CAISO’s solar fleet benefits from a well-coordinated relationship with a larger, longer-duration battery fleet, facilitated by market rules. In contrast, ERCOT manages a higher load, a generating fleet with substantially more thermal assets, and surprisingly little BTM given the high homeownership and strong solar potential across the state. Batteries in ERCOT by comparison are more freewheeling in how they bid and operate while averaging substantially shorter durations. We put a little school spirit into the color scheme for this. Hopefully, the rivalry stays exciting through the rest of 2024! To track these records and more, check out our site.

ERCOT hit a new record for battery dispatch tonight at 3.2 GW. This smashed the previous record set less than a year ago by over 1 GW ( 47%). At the peak, batteries were serving 5.1% of load in ERCOT — an all-time record based on our tracking. Net load shattered the 30-day average today, with the peak clearly at the point of most duress on the grid. The operational impacts of net load continue to rise in importance relative to load alone. While PRC maintained a healthy margin, capacity with an offer in SCED declined all evening to very low levels resulting in prices just a couple dollars short of $5,000/MWh.

Battery storage has been a standout performer in California ISO this spring. With over 7 GW of discharge at the peak ( 100% since 2023), batteries are reshaping the grid dynamics. In our latest blog post, we explore how this intensification of previous trends has had a series of knock-on effects in CAISO, most notably manifesting in the operations of natural gas. This year's record-high solar generation means that batteries are charging on cheap solar during the day and displacing natural gas when solar generation is ramping up and down in California. Despite this substantial increase in midday demand due to battery charging, there was no corresponding increase in natural gas generation. In fact, the opposite occurred. From the mid-morning until the late evening, average hourly gas generation was at its lowest levels in the last 7 years. Is California finally moving away from natural gas? The key question going forward is whether this is indicative of a new reality in CAISO, or simply an outlier spring. While many elements point to this being a structural change largely driven by the increased presence of batteries, the grid is changing quickly and sometimes in unpredictable ways. For more visuals of the data and our in-depth analysis, check out our full blog below https://lnkd.in/ggPuXJQ7

Wholesale energy prices in Texas nearly hit the offer cap of $5,000/MWh last night. Simultaneously, battery discharge to the grid peaked over 2,000 MW, a level that has happened only once before. While that represents only 4% of the total load, it is the highest percentage ever recorded in ERCOT according to the data we track at Grid Status. Perhaps more noteworthy for what's to come: it's the fourth time that particular record has been broken this month alone. Looking ahead to the week, there is an active notice in ERCOT for a possible 'Emergency Condition of Reserve Capacity Deficiency' that starts tonight and continues through Wednesday evening.

Prices exceeded $4,000 across all of ERCOT tonight. While gross load is under 60 GW, net load is the highest its been in the past 30 days due to low/falling wind output and sunset. Battery discharge peaked well over 1.5 GW, which is the highest it's been since the Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 (EEA 2) in September 2023. With ERCOT-wide prices at $4,500/MWh, batteries may have been setting the price. With thermal outages over 20 GW , the system is quite tight.