Amidst the various headlines and confusion over the state of the economy, successful business leaders are leaning on the leading indicators unique to their business to guide strategic decisions.

Except for February 2024 the LEI has fallen for two years. Money supply growth turned negative. Yield inversion. PMI. Many other "recession" predictors, none of which work when the economy benefits from massive monetary and fiscal intrusion. Most of the GDP growth is from government spending, which is now 44% of the total. Most of the consumer spending - 70% of GDP - was sourced from credit cards and savings, and now delinquencies, defaults and auto repossessions are way up. Government unilaterally decided policy should be to "recession proof" our economy. Just as ZIRP hid the real cost and damage of a massive mountain of debt, so too will cutting rates, buying U.S. Treasury bonds, running multi-trillion dollar federal deficits and other tricks of the trade keep the charade going...at least for awhile longer anyway. #thegreatreckoning

Is a soft landing on the horizon? This graphic shows three key factors that could impact whether the U.S. achieves a soft landing. #economy #market #srpretirementgeeks https://lnkd.in/dmPHYpxH

Is the U.S. economy headed for a soft landing? In our latest infographic, we’re breaking down the important indicators to watch. Take a look: https://bit.ly/48VJgSr #InvestmentInsights #USeconomy #Recession #TipsForInvestors

Time for the latest Model update on the NLCP Economic Growth Model. I've been making the rounds recently pushing back all on these narratives about stagflation and the economy weakening in general and I always bring the receipts. Today is no different. Our latest model shows growth rebounded sharply after dipping the previous month. We are now back at a cycle high increasing from 4.07 to 5.73. There really should be no recession talk, stagflation talk, or talks about cutting rates. On top of the sharp re-bound this month in the model below, is also a sharp move higher in the normalized model which I'll add in the comments. The normalized model converts all the input readings to Z-scores and gives a more balanced view of growth. It has been negative for awhile but incrementally moving higher along the way. For the first time in 2 years, the normalized data is back to zero, confirming the strength in the economy. I commented on a previous post about real demand being very robust as shown in the "final sales to domestic purchasers" data coming in at 3.1%. There really is nothing in this data that gives support to rates going meaningfully lower for now. I also commented about the volatility outlook being really muted. I've said this before and I'll say it again, all cycles eventually end. Sooner or later the doom and gloom crowd will have their "I told you so" moment. I just don't see that happening anytime soon. I think we are late cycle, maybe early late cycle. I don't mind disagreements with this view. In fact, I encourage it. Just keep in mind, In God we trust, everyone else bring data. #gdp #growth #risk #recession #rates

Will economic growth continue to accelerate? GDP estimates (slide 2) and Corp revenues appear strong (slide 3).... But the data doesn't paint a crystal clear picture, as indications from box manufactures and shipping companies show weakness (slide 6). Have your own look here in the latest Fireside Charts from Beaumont Capital:

The US economy shows impressive strength, but caution is warranted. High government and household spending raises concerns about deficits and debt. While those risks are present, the US economy has excellent news, such as job growth, strong energy markets, and tech prowess. What possibilities may investors have in such a scenario? Our analysts will help you to answer this question: https://lnkd.in/dB8Vb3Rz #economy #USA #finance #growth

💹 🤔 Insightful Economic Projections Unveiled by Federal Reserve Board and FOMC Following December 12-13 Meeting: At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 12–13, 2023, experts shared their predictions for the U.S. economy from 2023 to 2026 and beyond. They looked at key factors like GDP growth (which measures economic health), unemployment rates, and inflation (how prices rise). Each expert's prediction was based on the latest information and their view on the best way to manage the economy, including setting interest rates. They also considered what might happen to these factors in the long run if there were no major unexpected events and if monetary policy (how the government manages the economy through interest rates) was handled well. The goal of these policies is to achieve a balance between as many people as possible having jobs and keeping the cost of living stable. Note: There are error ranges to be considered while reviewing the projections. They are based on the average mistakes made in past predictions by private and government forecasters from 2003 to 2022. These predictions were typically released in winter. If we assume conditions remain similar to the past, there's about a 70% chance that the actual figures for GDP growth, unemployment, consumer prices, and the federal funds rate will fall within the error range calculated from these past forecasting errors.

A year ago, the Federal Reserve elevated its target interest rate beyond 5%, a move initially feared to disrupt the economy. However, the U.S. has remarkably adapted. Despite increased borrowing costs, many businesses had already secured low-rate long-term debt, cushioning immediate impacts. Economic optimism prevails, as seen at the Milken Institute Global Conference. While adjustments to higher rates continue, there's a consensus that this period signifies interest rate normalization. Yet, geopolitical dynamics and shifts like AI investments may sustain inflationary pressures, warranting sustained higher rates. #InterestRateHike #EconomicAdaptation #InflationControl