DoubleLine’s Post

DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman distills his mid-2024 macro-market analysis into three dominant factors: the slowing pace of growth, signs of progress on inflation and credit-cycle cross currents. https://lnkd.in/gFg7fDU9

On June 18th, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan analytical arm of U.S. Congress, released its latest outlook on the federal budget and U.S. economy. By 2034, they project federal debt held by the public to climb to 122% as a share of GDP, surpassing the previous high last seen during the Second World War. The CBO has been regularly making projections on federal deficits and debt levels since the organization’s inception in 1974. This week’s chart shows the evolution of the CBO’s projections of federal debt-to-GDP going back to the early 1980s along with the actual debt-to-GDP. #debt #economy #forecasts

The S&P 500 continues to close at record highs with Apple Inc. ranking as the largest company in the index based on market capitalization. This week, we look at historical data going back to 1990 and track the largest company by market capitalization at the end of each month. In the chart, we plot the number of consecutive months each company ranked as the largest.

DoubleLine is an independent, employee-owned money management firm committed to helping you achieve your investment goals. We offer an array of investment strategies and vehicles backed up by a consistent and tested portfolio management team. Led by CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine was founded in 2009 when Mr. Gundlach came to believe his goal of asset management excellence was not shared by owners of the firm that his team had built to prominence over the preceding 24 years. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gkamjJeK

While gains in unemployment and moderation in labor demand have sparked fears of a fragile consumer, we are not seeing a pullback in travel. Even though other factors might be supporting demand for airline seats, the true health of the consumer appears to be up in the air.

At the beginning of the year, we wrote, “Front and center, shelter inflation (a 35% weight in the CPI), should continue to moderate based on many metrics we look at, including alternative rent price data.” After a few months of waiting, shelter inflation has indeed begun to slow.

Life at the Top

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda, CFA surveys markets through June, including the outperformance of a handful of tech stocks, possible near-term $ strength on higher Treasury rates and attractive relative values in Agency MBS. https://lnkd.in/gzABPyvt