As NATO leaders convene in Washington this week, expert Stephen Sestanovich outlines the three critical audiences who will be eyeing the summit closely: Ukraine, the U.S. Congress, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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How NATO’s Summit Sends Signal to Critics As NATO leaders convene in Washington next week, three critical audiences will be eyeing the summit closely. Expert Brief by Stephen Sestanovich July 1, 2024 No matter how carefully policymakers across the alliance prepare for the summit, each of these audiences—Ukraine, partisan critics, President Putin—will have opportunities to challenge the meeting’s success. Ukrainian leaders have their own domestic incentives to ask for more of what they want. The Republican National Convention, which convenes just days after the summit ends, will surely include critiques of Biden’s performance. And Putin himself could see the benefits of a military surprise that would highlight Russia’s ability to do damage on the ground. All the same, the Biden administration’s long pre-summit to-do list has had an ambitious goal—to demonstrate enough alliance unity and sense of purpose to limit the impact of whatever pushback follows the summit.
How NATO’s Summit Sends Signal to Critics
cfr.org
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Al Jazeera: A year of living less dangerously? Finland’s first 12 months in NATO On the occasion of NATO's 75th Anniversary, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, analyzed in an excellent way what has changed for Finland after it joined NATO and what added value Finland brings to the alliance. I've explained in an interview to Giorgio how Finland’s NATO membership has significantly improved NATO's geostrategic position, prompting Moscow to view any potential confrontation with the Western alliance as much riskier. Here is the link to this very interesting article: https://lnkd.in/dWzXPZpc #finland #nato #warinukraine
A year of living less dangerously? Finland’s first 12 months in NATO
aljazeera.com
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China: Once NATO begins expanding into Asia, not only could it exacerbate global geopolitical tensions, but it could also escalate arms races and regional conflicts. The danger of war will inevitably increase as NATO advances and expands globally, and those affected will not be limited to Asia.
NATO is pushing the Russia-Ukraine conflict toward a ‘world war’
globaltimes.cn
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Trustee, Anaha Trust; former Chairman, The Federal Bank Ltd.; Member PMG, MakerVillage; Director TIMed Incubator SCTIMST; Member, Governing Council, Center for Management Development;
>>Much of the discussion on the military conflict in Ukraine by 'experts' in the MSM in the collective West eddies around what Russia 'intends' to do, or what Putin is 'thinking'. How do these 'experts' know that? They provide little evidence to support such statements, but their views continue to be aired in the MSM front pages, and hence influence the perceptions of ordinary readers who wrongly assume these 'experts' must be knowing something they don't. >>John Mearsheimer, the R Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, and a leading American political scientist and international relations scholar, has stated that in such studies and analyses, we must go by the stated intentions, and past record of statesmen and military leaders to try and discern their likely moves. He belongs to the 'realist school of thought' and does not waste time in speculating about what Putin 'intends' or 'thinks', because there is no feasible way to do that. Instead, he relies on the record of what Putin (or another statesman) said or wrote, as well as past actions and deeds, as he considers those better and more reliable data on which to base analyses. It is instructive to listen to Mearsheimer's lectures, as we will get to understand how much we too rely on such assumptions about the intentions and thought processes of others, something that we can never get to know, until they actually say something or write about it. >>Based on the military performance of western military hardware in Ukraine, it can be said that even if the NATO armed forces were at full strength and fully equipped, they are unlikely to hold a determined Russian attack for more than a couple of weeks along a broad eastern front. The more important matter is that there is no indication that the Russians have any intention of doing so! What is happening in Ukraine has happened after the collective West and NATO ignored or disregarded repeated warnings by President Putin about pushing NATO further to the east to Russia's borders. The SMO has limited aims, and the tactics and force employed by Russia indicate the scope of that operation. A total war will be entirely another matter, and with far more devastating consequences. >>It is safe to say that the Ukraine war has exposed NATO as a paper tiger, used in the past for bullying small states that did not have the capacity to strike back like Serbia, Bosnia, and Libya. As the Ukraine Defense Minister Kuleba remarked, there is no army in NATO that has the toughness or capacity of the Ukraine army! Russia will accomplish the de-militarization of not only Ukraine, but also NATO unless Ukraine agrees to unconditional talks. #ukrainerussiawar #russia #nato #europeanunion #usa #brics #greatpowercompetition Souvik RoyShalini WarrierSanjesh KumarIndraneel Pandit, FRMC. PadmakumarB R B PuthranRajesh Nair
NATO is preparing for war with Russia – Bild
msn.com
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ISW has assessed that the collapse of Western aid would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military and that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate because the current instable balance could readily be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West.[5] Continued Western security assistance that empowers Ukrainian forces to repel ongoing and future Russian offensive efforts and to liberate more Ukrainian territory is the only course of action at this time that can make the Russian failure to achieve Putin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine permanent. https://lnkd.in/gAQ6ZpMW
Institute for the Study of War
understandingwar.org
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Regional cooperation within the #NATO framework is the worst scenario for the #Kremlin, so it can be expected to try anything that could impede closer NATO integration, especially in the #Baltic region. https://ow.ly/J5HT50PKF5B
The Vilnius NATO Summit Brings Opportunities for Closer Nordic-Baltic Integration - Foreign Policy Research Institute
https://www.fpri.org
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“In a word, NATO has effectively labeled Russia as its enemy. Which Russia is, both objectively, as NATO admits, and subjectively, as Russian policymakers repeatedly state. Stopping Putin Russia is thus not only desirable. It’s imperative, above all for the security and survival of NATO and the West. This conclusion immediately transforms Ukraine from a target of Russian imperialism and a victim of genocide to an essential—perhaps even the essential—component of any effective Western defense against Russia. This shift is huge. It means that supporting Ukraine isn’t just the right thing to do. It’s the only practical way of defending the West against Russia’s warmaking and land grabbing.” https://lnkd.in/eVqYWmYN
The NATO Summit Declares Russia an Enemy
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org
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Defence Policy & Strategy/National Security & Resilience; Hybrid Threats/Information Warfare/Cyber Defence; NATO/EU/Black Sea/Georgia/Ukraine/Russia
There are three clear lessons to be learned from NATO's latest enlargement in Nordics: Lesson 1 - NATO membership is the only effective security guarantee Lesson 2 - Russia reverses hostile rhetoric when NATO enlargement becomes irreversible Lesson 3 - NATO’s resolve and bold decisions not provoke but deter Russia Those lessons could apply to Georgia's dormant NATO integration process in many ways; however, some apparent differences need profound consideration and skillful handling. My analysis for Research Institute Gnomon Wise under the link:
Nordic Lessons for Georgia’s NATO Quest
politicsgeo.com
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