Citizens Alliance Bank’s Post

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Commercial real estate loan distress can feel like a time bomb weighing on many financial services organizations, with plenty of property debt maturing soon. If your organization is feeling stressed, it's not alone. Crowe consultants can help you take steps toward improving CRE loan risk management and keeping pace with regulatory compliance. Story by International Banker #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Lending https://bit.ly/3wZCn44

With the commercial real-estate market now in meltdown, those trillions of dollars in loans and investments are a looming threat for the banking industry—and potentially the broader economy. Banks’ exposure is even bigger than commonly reported. The banks are in danger of setting off a doom-loop scenario where losses on the loans trigger banks to cut lending, which leads to further drops in property prices and yet more losses. Today’s troubled market, fueled by rising interest rates and high vacancies, follows years of boom times. Banks roughly doubled their lending to landlords from 2015 to 2022, to $2.2 trillion. Small and medium-size banks originated many of those loans, and all that lending helped push up property prices. Over the past decade, banks also increased their exposure to commercial real estate in ways that aren’t usually counted in their tallies. They lent to financial companies that make loans to some of those same landlords, and they bought bonds backed by the same types of properties. That indirect lending—along with foreclosed properties, trading portfolios and other assets linked to commercial properties—brings banks’ total exposure to commercial real estate to $3.6 trillion, according to a WSJ analysis. That’s equivalent to about 20% of their deposits. The volume of commercial property sales in July was down 74% from a year earlier, and sales of downtown office buildings hit the lowest level in at least two decades, according to data provider MSCI Real Assets. When deals begin again, they will be at far lower prices, which will shock banks, said Michael Comparato, head of commercial real estate at Benefit Street Partners, a debt-focused asset manager. “It’s going to be really nasty,” he said. Lending is the lifeblood of all real estate, and regional and community banks have long dominated commercial real-estate lending. Their importance grew after the 2008 financial crisis, when the country’s biggest banks reduced their exposure to the sector under scrutiny from regulators. Low interest rates made higher-yielding real-estate loans lucrative to hold.   That strategy now appears risky after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Banks are under pressure to pay depositors more to keep customers from fleeing to higher-yielding investment alternatives. Without cheap deposits, banks have less money to lend and to absorb losses from loans that go bad. Depositors withdrew funds from many small and regional lenders earlier this year after the collapse of three midsize banks stoked fears of a systemwide crisis. The doom-loop scenario is starting to play out in big cities where office vacancies have soared. Real-estate investors that are unable to refinance their debt, or can only do it at high rates, are defaulting. The lenders, no longer getting the debt payments, often have to write down the value of those mortgages. Sometimes the bank ends up owning the property.

“Roughly $900 billion worth of real-estate loans and securities, most with rates far lower than today’s, need to be paid off or refinanced by the end of 2024.” “With the commercial real-estate market now in meltdown, those trillions of dollars in loans and investments are a looming threat for the banking industry—and potentially the broader economy. Banks’ exposure is even bigger than commonly reported. The banks are in danger of setting off a doom-loop scenario where losses on the loans trigger banks to cut lending, which leads to further drops in property prices and yet more losses.” “…fueled by rising interest rates and high vacancies, follows years of boom times. Banks roughly doubled their lending to landlords from 2015 to 2022, to $2.2 trillion. Small and medium-size banks originated many of those loans, and all that lending helped push up property prices.”

Bids are due Thursday on the most closely watched commercial-property sale of the year. Loans are expected to sell on average 15% to 40% below their original face amount, according to prospective bidders.  Those discounts will likely affect the values of New York commercial property for several years. The market will get an initial data point from the coming loan sale and again when the loans are resolved, either through a payoff, a loan sale, or a foreclosure, said D. Michael Van Konynenburg, president of real estate investment banking firm Eastdil Secured.  Signature’s loan sale will provide the ailing commercial real estate market with one of the most precise benchmarks for how badly values have been eroded by the jump in interest rates and the weak return-to-office rate.

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Quick recap of the recent FDIC guidance on commercial real estate concentration management, which had a particular focus on construction & development. 1. Maintain Strong Capital Levels - "Institutions with significant C&D and CRE exposures may require more capital because of uncertainty about market conditions causing an elevated risk of unexpected losses." 2. Ensure that Credit Loss Allowances are Appropriate - "Prudent credit management includes periodic, at least quarterly, analysis of the collectability of CRE and all other exposures and maintenance of ACLs at a level that is appropriate to cover expected credit losses on individually evaluated loans, as well as expected credit losses in the remainder of the loan portfolio." 3. Manage C&D and CRE Loan Portfolios Closely - "Portfolio and loan level stress tests or sensitivity analysis can be an invaluable tool in identifying and quantifying the impact of changing economic conditions and changing loan level fundamentals on asset quality, earnings, and capital." 4. Maintain Updated Financial and Analytical Information - "Institutions with CRE and/or C&D concentrations maintain recent borrower financial statements, including property cash flow statements, rent rolls, guarantor personal statements, tax return data, and other income property performance information to better understand their borrowers’ ability to repay and overall financial condition and enable timely identification of adverse trends. 5. Bolster the Loan Workout Infrastructure - "Sufficient staff and appropriate skill sets are needed to properly manage an increase in problem loans and workouts." 6. Maintain Adequate Liquidity and Diverse Funding Sources - "Recent industry events have underscored risks related to relying on funding concentrations, such as high levels of uninsured deposits, and the importance of robust liquidity risk management and contingency funding planning." Looking to bolster credit underwriting, loan review, interest rate/liquidity risk management, or CRE stress testing? Reach out to me and we can draft up a plan. https://lnkd.in/gedTr9Ds

During the last real estate downturn, I represented a large private equity group that entered into a series of Structured Transactions with the FDIC. We successfully resolved and disposed of significant numbers of diverse assets in many markets, and have relevant insights and experience in managing the entire due diligence and disposition process in partnership with the FDIC. If you're looking to participate in these transactions, we are happy to share insights and opportunities. #duncanbergmanmandell #fdic #CMBS #nonperformingloans #pinkacre #privateequity #npl #distressedassets

Banks with less than $250 billion in assets held about three-quarters of all commercial real-estate loans as of the second quarter of 2023. They accounted for nearly $758 billion of commercial real-estate lending since 2015.  The doom-loop scenario is starting to play out in big cities where office vacancies have soared. Real-estate investors that are unable to refinance their debt, or can only do it at high rates, are defaulting. The lenders, no longer getting the debt payments, often have to write down the value of those mortgages, often by 30-50%. Now bank are owning the property. #cre #commercialbanking #commercialrealestate