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Sparkling Wine, Not Champagne: The iPhone 15 cycle is tracking up ~5% y/y, driven by base 15 model strength and the lack of a delayed iPhone 15 Plus. We believe base variant strength is a positive sign for the iPhone 15 cycle to finally get the older, more value-focused iPhone 11 base to upgrade. However, our biggest concern remains T-Mobile's relative weakness and the hesitancy of premium Magenta Max plan subscribers—launched in Feb 2021 and offering the best device offers—to upgrade yet again to the pricier Go5G Plus plans to get the best promotions. While slight growth in a down market is a clear positive, we lack conviction trends can improve materially.   Samsung Out for Blood: The S23 FE October launch underscores Samsung's strategic shift away from the low-end market to maintaining premium Android market share. With a portfolio starting at $600 for the S23 FE, $700 for the S22 n-1 flagship, $800 for the S23, $1,000 for the S23 , and $1,200 for the S23 Ultra, Samsung's move presents significant challenges to Android competitors, notably Google. The timing of the S23 FE launch and its price reduction is strategically aligned with the release of Google's Pixel 8 and their recent price increases, creating the perception of a deliberate effort to undercut Pixel 8 sales. Reminiscent of its strategies against competitors like HTC and LG, Samsung, unable to gain share from Apple, appears focused on not ceding share to any other Android OEM.

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