#Diary of a #CommodityTrader We have a Food Price crisis in Nigeria. Official food basket inflation figures are at 40%, and my estimate was that it will get to 45% before Q4, when it may tapper, FX rates held constant. The big question is why do we have a food problem? Almost 80% of food we eat is planted in the wet season, May, June, July in most parts of the agrarian states. And for a successful season, you need between 3 to 6 months of planning. Now, this administration came in May 29th and had a dozen urgent and important policy interventions that were almost existential to the country. Before they caught their breath, the planting season was over, with limited input. We are suffering from the food shortage caused from that lower than normal food production last year. In December, they did an amazing input subsidy program reaching almost 120,000 farmers. I wish the focus on this was on rice and other staples, but it went to wheat, and poor man no dey chop wheat. I have been in many conversations in the past month, and it is expected that some of the efforts on cultivation currently ongoing, amazing work done in Niger State by Gov Bago mohammed and Sammy Adigun will also contribute tremendously to National Food supply. Thanks to the Hon Minister of Agriculture Senator Abubakar Kyari for his leadership. Long term, we must fix our seed systems, make fertilizer available (#Urea 🫡) and start to think medium to large scale farming. AFEX #Agriculture #Nigeria
Agriculture is a peculiar sector. Unless we are strategic about our activities the output will always be poor. Take advantage of good season, good seeds, good soil, modern equipment and leverage on technology to have bountiful harvest. Start seeing agric as a business. Commercial agriculture is the way to food security in Nigeria.
Well said Sir Ayodeji Balogun can we also look into the irrigation system for commercial farmers?
Cassava is a long term business given that one crop cycle is 12-15 months. If the supporting policies last the time of an elected president, of course they will lose money. It is all the fault of the following governments who let farmers down.
All in agreement with you. I don't understand either why people keep on wanting to cultivate wheat in Africa instead of focusing on improving the cassava value chain. "Everything that wheat does, Cassava can do" (Chief Olusegun Obasanjo)
Good analysis. But don't forget about the persistent killing of whole farm settlements in Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa states and the whole food basket in Nigeria.
Correctly diagnosed “80% of food produced in the wet season” but did not mention irrigation as part of your long term fixes. Seeds and fertiliser will not work if there’s inadequate soil moisture
Profound egbon Ayodeji Balogun. The part and impact of scaling up medium to large scale farming cannot be over emphasised.This requires investment in infrastructure such as irrigation systems, storage facilities, and mechanized farming equipment to facilitate this transition. Also, the support of PPPs (Public-Private Partnerships) in addressing those challenges.
Hi Ayodeji Balogun Would like to meet you next time I’m in Abuja. Let’s connect. Best regards, Morten, 45 40601075 (whatsapp)
Hmm... "Poor man no dey chop wheat"... I hope price stability sets in soon in the food/commodities market.
PhD researcher in climate and smallholder agriculture| Expert in climate smart agriculture (CSA), climate resilient development (CRD), and SDGs.
3moI recently concluded my research fieldwork survey of farmers in Kano state (about 410 samples) and also followed up with a focus group discussions - to further understand their challenges. These are my findings: 1. Most interventions that the real farmers benefit from comes from NGOs and international donor organizations (e.g. Sassakawa, IITA, ICRISAT, etc.) Gov’t interventions are largely marred by sharp practices and corruption, as those saddled with reaching out to the farmers always shortchange them - highlighting the gov’ts poor M&E of its projects. 2. Gov’t didn’t planned properly after the subsidy removal that obviously affected prices of farm inputs and transportation of goods, the agric ministry had an ample time to come up with a policy that will protect the rural farmers from the economic reform but failed in that regard. 3. And like you rightfully said, the input subsidy target to farmers for wheat farming was not only wrong but clearly a failed intervention as many of the beneficiaries are either not farmers or have sold the subdized input received. The Agric ministry needs to sit down and properly plan on how they intend to develop the sector, specifically smallholder farmerd with proper data and engagement.