Mortgage Market Update 22.07.2024 Mixed Economic Signals Last week presented mixed economic indicators that could affect the Bank of England's interest rate decision on August 1st. 📉📈 A significant IT failure on Friday, dubbed the 'Biggest IT fail ever' by Elon Musk, followed issues with the CHAPS payment system on Thursday, which disrupted many home moves. 🏠💻 Inflation and Wage Growth Headline inflation remained at 2% on Wednesday, which might suggest a rate cut is possible next month. However, services inflation stayed high at 5.7%, which is a concern for the Bank of England. 💸 Wage growth dropped to 5.7% for the three months ending in May. This decline wasn't enough to convince the Bank of England that a rate cut is necessary, despite the demand from businesses and households. 💼 Retail Sales and Financial Strain Retail sales fell by 1.2% in June, much worse than expected. This decline is due to prolonged financial strain on households, not the weather. Over the past four years, the economy has faced a global pandemic, high inflation, and rising interest rates. 📉🌧️ Rising Insolvencies Insolvency data revealed that 10,395 people in England and Wales entered insolvency in June 2024, an 11% increase from May and 33% higher than June 2023. Company insolvencies also rose by 16% from May and 17% from the previous year. 📊💔 Bank of England's Focus on Inflation Despite the economic struggles, the Bank of England remains focused on its 2% inflation target, although it has only achieved this target 30% of the time since 1997. 🎯 Positive News on Mortgage Rates Major lenders like Halifax, TSB, and NatWest continued to reduce mortgage rates last week, which is good news for borrowers and the property market. Property prices rose by 2.2% in the year to the end of May, according to the Land Registry. 🏡📉 Lenders seem to anticipate a rate cut, possibly following the lead of the US Federal Reserve, which markets expect to cut rates in September. If this happens, the Bank of England may follow, providing much-needed support to businesses and households. However, as the rising insolvency figures suggest, this support might come too late for many. 🚀 Conclusion As the economy faces multiple challenges, the Bank of England's actions will be closely watched in the coming weeks. 👀 --- #MortgageUpdate #Economy #BankofEngland #Inflation #MortgageRates #FinancialNews #PropertyMarket #Insolvencies
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Managing Director | Global Buy to Let Specialist | 18 years' Experience | £2bn raised | Breaking Property News & Expert Advice
🏦 Breaking News: Bank of England Base Rate Held at 5% – What This Means for Mortgages As a Director of Fabrik Property Group, I'm closely monitoring the latest move by the Bank of England to hold the base rate at 5%. With 5-year fixed-rate deals dropping to their lowest levels in two years, here’s what you need to know about the impact on mortgages and what this could mean for buyers and investors. Key Takeaways: - Base Rate Holds at 5%: The Bank of England's decision to maintain the rate signals stability for borrowers. - Swap Rates Falling: Recent declines in swap rates (the rates banks pay to borrow money) indicate lenders' confidence in a stabilizing rate environment. - Lowest Fixed Rates in Two Years: Five-year fixed-rate deals have dropped to 4.3%, offering relief to homeowners and investors alike. What’s Happened? Despite previous hikes to tackle inflation, which peaked at 10% in early 2023, the decision to hold the base rate provides a welcome pause for households and businesses. Economists forecast a potential rate drop to 4% by the end of 2025. What Does This Mean for Mortgages? Mortgage rates are not directly set by the base rate but are influenced by money market conditions. Recent drops in 2-year and 5-year swap rates suggest further easing of fixed mortgage rates ahead. Predictions indicate that we could see average mortgage rates of 4-4.5% for 5-year fixes becoming the norm. Expert Insight: While current mortgage stress tests remain high at around 8%, there’s potential for these to adjust downwards, making borrowing more accessible. With base rate forecasts leveling at 3-3.25% by 2025, the market could stabilize with mortgage rates in the high 3% to low 4% range. Impact on the Housing Market: The housing market is adapting to the new rate environment, with 2024 showing positive signs of recovery as buyers regain confidence. Zoopla predicts a 10% increase in homeowner moves this year, with average house prices expected to rise by 2%. Looking Ahead: The mortgage market remains highly competitive, offering opportunities for those looking to secure a new deal. Now could be an excellent time to explore your options, lock in current rates, and plan for a potentially more favorable borrowing environment in the near future. Thinking of your next move? As always, I’m here to provide guidance and insight on navigating the market. Let’s connect! #FabrikPropertyGroup #MortgageRates #BankOfEngland #UKProperty
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Important update on base rate for mortgages
Managing Director | Global Buy to Let Specialist | 18 years' Experience | £2bn raised | Breaking Property News & Expert Advice
🏦 Breaking News: Bank of England Base Rate Held at 5% – What This Means for Mortgages As a Director of Fabrik Property Group, I'm closely monitoring the latest move by the Bank of England to hold the base rate at 5%. With 5-year fixed-rate deals dropping to their lowest levels in two years, here’s what you need to know about the impact on mortgages and what this could mean for buyers and investors. Key Takeaways: - Base Rate Holds at 5%: The Bank of England's decision to maintain the rate signals stability for borrowers. - Swap Rates Falling: Recent declines in swap rates (the rates banks pay to borrow money) indicate lenders' confidence in a stabilizing rate environment. - Lowest Fixed Rates in Two Years: Five-year fixed-rate deals have dropped to 4.3%, offering relief to homeowners and investors alike. What’s Happened? Despite previous hikes to tackle inflation, which peaked at 10% in early 2023, the decision to hold the base rate provides a welcome pause for households and businesses. Economists forecast a potential rate drop to 4% by the end of 2025. What Does This Mean for Mortgages? Mortgage rates are not directly set by the base rate but are influenced by money market conditions. Recent drops in 2-year and 5-year swap rates suggest further easing of fixed mortgage rates ahead. Predictions indicate that we could see average mortgage rates of 4-4.5% for 5-year fixes becoming the norm. Expert Insight: While current mortgage stress tests remain high at around 8%, there’s potential for these to adjust downwards, making borrowing more accessible. With base rate forecasts leveling at 3-3.25% by 2025, the market could stabilize with mortgage rates in the high 3% to low 4% range. Impact on the Housing Market: The housing market is adapting to the new rate environment, with 2024 showing positive signs of recovery as buyers regain confidence. Zoopla predicts a 10% increase in homeowner moves this year, with average house prices expected to rise by 2%. Looking Ahead: The mortgage market remains highly competitive, offering opportunities for those looking to secure a new deal. Now could be an excellent time to explore your options, lock in current rates, and plan for a potentially more favorable borrowing environment in the near future. Thinking of your next move? As always, I’m here to provide guidance and insight on navigating the market. Let’s connect! #FabrikPropertyGroup #MortgageRates #BankOfEngland #UKProperty
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📉 Bank of England Interest Rate Cut: What It Means for Buyers 🏠 The Bank of England has recently reduced the base rate from 5.25% to 5%. This marks the first interest rate cut since March 2020, signaling a potentially significant shift for the real estate market. 🔍 Impact on Mortgage Rates: This reduction may lead to more affordable mortgage rates, enhancing buying confidence. Buyers can expect to see mortgage rates gradually returning to more manageable levels, which could increase market activity as we approach autumn. Particularly, if the trend of rate cuts continues, this could greatly benefit those looking to enter the market or secure a new home. 📈 Economic Stability: With inflation now meeting the UK Government's 2% target, the economic outlook appears more stable. This stability is crucial for buyers and sellers alike, providing a more predictable environment for making important financial decisions. 🏦 Mortgage Offers: In response to the rate cut, we are beginning to see new mortgage offerings with very attractive terms. Notably, some lenders are now providing fixed-term mortgages at rates below 4%. This is an excellent opportunity for buyers to lock in low rates and enjoy significant savings over the term of their mortgage. 👉 What This Means for You: If you've been considering purchasing a property, now might be a perfect time. Lower interest rates mean lower monthly payments and more purchasing power, making this an ideal time to buy into the market. Need more information on how these changes could affect your property purchase? Contact Lawrie Estate Agents today - We're here to help guide you through the current market conditions with expert advice and insights. Visit our website or give us a call to discuss how we can assist you secure your dream home. Erin Campbell Joyce Lawrie #LawrieEstateAgents #InterestRateCut #HomeBuying #UKRealEstate #MortgageRates #EconomicStability #PropertyMarket #FifeHomes
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Breaking news - The Bank of England has decided to keep the bank rate at 5.25% 📢 Ben Thompson, Deputy CEO at Mortgage Advice Bureau, says: “Inflation has largely been dropping faster than expected, and despite the slight upward tick announced earlier this month, the Bank of England is still ahead of its own inflation projections. Regardless, a hold was always the most likely decision – and will continue to give markets confidence that the Bank of England is still on track to cut rates later this year. “2024 has started positively for the mortgage market, with rate cuts from lenders prompting a surge of activity. There are now many competitive rates available, especially when compared to this time last year. “All eyes will now be on the next inflation reading, and we’ll be hoping for more signs of slowing inflation paving the way for rate cuts later in the year.” Check out the Daily Mail News link below to read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/e-WczpB6 #Mortgages #MortgageAdviceBureau #BankofEngland #InterestRate #UKInflation
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📉📈 Bank of England's Rate Cut: A Game-Changer for the Housing Market 🏡🔑 In a surprising move last Thursday, the Bank of England, known for its often belated responses, made a significant decision to reduce the base interest rate from 5.25% to 5%! 🎉 This decision, passed by a narrow margin with five members in favor and four against, has had immediate and far-reaching effects on the UK's property and mortgage markets. 🌟🏦 Despite the Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, using complex jargon like 'modal' during the press conference, the implications of this rate cut are clear and substantial. The reduction is the first in over four years and has already injected a wave of optimism into the housing market. 🚀🌊 Boost for the Property Market 🏘️ Even before the rate cut, demand and activity levels in the property market were on the rise, fueled by lenders consistently reducing mortgage rates throughout June and July. Now, with the official rate cut, this momentum is expected to accelerate significantly, signaling a potential surge in property transactions. 📈💼 Impact on Swap Rates and Mortgage Costs 💷📉 Notably, the financial instruments known as 'swap rates,' which influence the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, continued to drop sharply following the Bank's decision. This trend suggests that further reductions in mortgage rates are on the horizon, providing additional relief to borrowers. 🏦💪 Market Reactions and Future Prospects 🔮🏠 The property market insiders are optimistic about the rest of 2024, anticipating a robust market performance. According to the latest Nationwide house price index, UK house prices saw a modest increase of 0.3% in July, with annual growth picking up to 2.1%—the fastest since December 2022! 📊🏡 However, affordability remains a concern. Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, highlighted that the average earner is now spending about 37% of their take-home pay on mortgage payments, compared to the pre-Covid average of 28%. Despite this, initial responses to the rate cut have been positive. For instance, Skipton Building Society adjusted their rates to favor first-time buyers with smaller deposits. 🏡💷 Looking Ahead 📅🔮 If more lenders follow suit and announce further rate cuts, particularly for higher loan-to-value mortgages, the housing market could see a bustling end to 2024, with house prices continuing their gradual ascent. 🏠📈 In summary, those who predicted significant declines in the property market have been proven wrong, as the Bank of England's timely rate cut has revitalized the sector and set the stage for a promisi#investinproperty 📚💼 Dariusz Karpowicz - Mortgage Adviser Albion Financial Advice 💼💡 #BankOfEngland #InterestRates #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #PropertyBoom #EconomicUpdate #RealEstate #FinancialNews #HomeBuyers #InvestInProperty
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Here to help you throughout your mortgage journey and to help you plan for a more secure financial future.
The Bank of England has decided to keep the bank rate at 5.25% 📢 Ben Thompson, Deputy CEO at Mortgage Advice Bureau, says: “Inflation has largely been dropping faster than expected, and despite the slight upward tick announced earlier this month, the Bank of England is still ahead of its own inflation projections. Regardless, a hold was always the most likely decision – and will continue to give markets confidence that the Bank of England is still on track to cut rates later this year. “2024 has started positively for the mortgage market, with rate cuts from lenders prompting a surge of activity. There are now many competitive rates available, especially when compared to this time last year. “All eyes will now be on the next inflation reading, and we’ll be hoping for more signs of slowing inflation paving the way for rate cuts later in the year.” Check out the Daily Mail News link below to read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/e-WczpB6 #Mortgages #MortgageAdviceBureau #BankofEngland #InterestRate #UKInflation
Base rate hold provides `further relief for home buyers and sellers´
dailymail.co.uk
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While nothing is guaranteed, outlook for 2024 certainly looks brighter. No doubt their will be a few hiccups along the way, but am positive that come the end of the year both residential and btl mortgage holders will be better off. Here are my comments and expectations in The Telegraph. #johncharcol #mortgagebroker #mortgagebrokers #fixedrates #fixedrate #fixedratemortgage #btl #landlords #landlord #firsttimehomebuyer #ftb #firstimehomebuyers #remortgage #remortgaging #homemovers #producttransfer https://lnkd.in/efxh9cPd
What will happen to interest rates, mortgages and savings in 2024?
telegraph.co.uk
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🏦 Bank of England Base Rate Cut to 5% – What It Means for You. Let’s dive into the recent change in the Bank of England base rate and its impact on mortgages: The Bank of England has just cut its base rate from 5.25% to 5%. This rate serves as a benchmark for other banks and lenders when they borrow money. Here’s how it affects you: First Cut in Over Four Years: This is the first base rate cut in over four years. The last time it happened was in March 2020, when the rate hit its all-time lowest level of 0.1%. Since then, it had been steadily rising, reaching a 16-year high of 5.25% in August 2023. Inflation Control: The base rate is a tool the Bank of England uses to manage inflation. With a target of 2% for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the bank had kept the rate high to control rising prices. However, as CPI inflation returned to the 2% target in May and June 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the rate. Impact on Mortgages: Fixed Mortgage Deals: If you’re on a fixed mortgage deal, there’s no immediate change. Your payments won’t fluctuate during the fixed period. But if your deal is ending soon, consider looking at new deals now. Tracker Mortgages: Tracker mortgages may become more popular. These rates move in line with the base rate, so as it comes down, tracker rates could follow suit. Consider Switching: If your deal is ending soon, explore new options. You can usually lock in a new mortgage deal six months ahead of time, ensuring rate certainty and flexibility. Remember, this rate cut is good news for borrowers, but keep an eye on lender announcements for specific changes. Stay informed and make the most of your mortgage. See how I can help: https://lnkd.in/eHprhFTw
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#PropertyNews 𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 … 𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬. 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒚 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒃𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒃𝒖𝒕 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒕 𝒂 𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒊𝒔 𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒃𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓. 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒚 & 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒖𝒆 𝒅𝒐𝒆𝒔 𝒏𝒆𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒃𝒆 𝒂𝒅𝒅𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒅. ➡ The latest index, from the Halifax, shows house prices rose 0.4 per cent in February – the fifth consecutive monthly increase. They’re up 1.7% in a year and this takes the typical home’s value close to the the peak reached back in June 2022. Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, says: “The power of momentum has helped keep house prices rising into February. It’s a slower rise than January, as mortgage rate cuts eased, and there’s every chance this could peter out in the face of higher rates. However, after five months of house price growth, optimism is building that this could be the new normal. “January’s pick up wasn’t just the enthusiasm of the new year, mortgage rates played a huge role too. The average 2-year rate dropped from 5.93% on the 2 January to 5.56% at the end of the month, according to Moneyfacts. However, February brought market concerns that the Bank of England wouldn’t cut rates as fast as it hoped, so banks factored in higher rates for longer, and by the end of the month, this meant the average 2-year mortgage rate rose to 5.75% “Mortgage changes have a lag effect on demand, because those approved in January will tend to fund the sales in February, and to a certain extent in March, but their impact will diminish over time. This may be what we’re seeing in the figures. “However, there is still plenty of optimism in the market. Prices are getting close to the peak in 2022, and we’ve racked up consecutive five months of rises now. With more buyer demand showing up in the RICS residential market report in January, sellers will be hoping that more residual demand is here to stay. “An awful lot will depend on the wider economy. There’s still a good chance there are more difficult economic times on the horizon, and the Bank of England is fairly gloomy about the outlook. However, we may well be out of a recession, and as the second National Insurance cut of the year filters through into people’s pockets, it could fuel a bit more spending, and consumer optimism. Sentiment plays such a vital role in this market that it could help keep us in positive territory in the coming months – even with higher mortgage rates." Via LandlordToday.
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Edging ever closer to a base interest rate cut Ever since it was increased from 5% to 5.25% in August of last year, the Bank of England base rate has not moved for the sixth consecutive month The Bank is likely to lower interest rates this year in order to meet its 2% inflation objective. It was always expected that the Bank would hold rates this month, and it is anticipated that June's meeting would produce a similar result. However, by then, there ought to have been two more sets of better inflation statistics, supporting the case for rate cuts by the end of the summer. The anticipation is that June's meeting will finally break the impasse over the base rate and start a rate drop, even though no change was anticipated by most. In recent months, the housing market has been rather steady. According to the most recent House Price Index data, there are more properties for sale and increased buyer confidence. As of right now, 12% more sales have been agreed upon than at this time last year. In March, 61,300 mortgages were approved, somewhat more than the 60,500 that were approved in February. The number of monthly mortgage approvals that was observed in the three years preceding the epidemic is currently approaching 65,000. Things are certainly looking brighter on the horizon. Despite the recent small increase in mortgage rates, two significant lenders—Barclays and Lloyds—offered some optimism lately by lowering some of their rates. Due to the intense competition in the mortgage industry, mortgage rates have already decreased this year and have been considerably less erratic. Now that the economic growth prognosis has brightened and buyer confidence has surged, we may anticipate a modest price rise for houses this year. #property #mortgages #bankofengland
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