ABF Journal’s Post

Inferno Numbers The estimated global war costs for 2023 are 2.3 billion dollars (USD). In continental European usage, 2,3 billion means 2 300 000 000 000 milliards dollars [ORF Austria, March 9, 2024, 09:00 local time News]. The US International Peace Bureau call for "The Global Days of Action on Military Spending (GDAMS)". There are 391 USD billion  (391 000 000 000 000) in bank debts worldwide. In the year 2022, global public debt reached 92 USD trillion (92 000 000 000 000 000 000) [https://lnkd.in/dwChYbrE, on 22.04.2024, at 10:54]. 2 300 000 000 000 391 000 000 000 000 92 000 000 000 000 000 000 Any object/activity has an intrinsic value. The inherent value changes without objectivity under the action of demand and supply. Are these numbers reflecting accurate values? What can represent the correct value? Who makes these values? Gross domestic product elsewhere (you can google it): United States, 25.44 trillion USD ‎(2022) = 25 440 000 000 000 000 000 India, 3.417 trillion USD ‎(2022) =   3 417 000 000 000 000 000 Russia, 2.24 trillion USD ‎(2022) =   2 240 000 000 000 000 000 German, 4.082 trillion USD (2022) =    4 082 000 000 000 000 000

#USpolitics has a profound impact on #emergingmarkets. It remains the world’s most powerful economy and has the most powerful military. The next POTUS and whatever policy direction comes with him or her will therefore have considerable economic repercussions for the “ROW”. A few thoughts on what a potential win for former-President #Trump might mean:   1. A continuation or even hardening of the anti-China bipartisan consensus, 2. Pressure on NATO members to live up to their 2% of GDP defence spending commitments, 3. A refocus of US foreign policy away from Ukraine and back to the Middle East, particularly Israel, 4. Higher trade tariffs, 5. Probably lower interest rates (expect Trump clashes with Fed Chair Powell), 6. Lower taxes, 7. Less immigration, and more hawkish approach to Venezuela and others in LatAm in particular, 8. Less multilateralism. A reminder of how EM reacted in the last two US general elections:

Israel's financial markets hold despite Iranian missile strikes and threat of regional war #bne #bneEditorsPicks #Iran #IranAttacks #Israel #stocks #FX Israel's financial markets shrugged off the April 13 Iranian missile strikes and will have a minimal economic impact in the short term, say analysts. The key concern now hinges on what Israel decides to do next. Will it hit back and escalate a cycle of violence that has already gone up a notch with Iran’s first-ever direct military strike against Israeli territory? A more extensive regional conflict would significantly influence everyone’s economy. “An aggressive Israeli military response that leads to direct conflict with Iran is a major downside risk for the economy. But a more prolonged war effort in Gaza now looks possible, which could weigh on Israel’s recovery, add to fiscal strains, put the shekel under pressure and delay further interest rate cuts,” Liam Peach, the senior emerging market economist with Capital Economics, said in a note.

China's multi-pronged economic crisis threatens its growth targets and stability. This week’s digest will explore the potential outcome of a desperate government seeking to deflect public anger through military action by raising the risk of a conflict with Taiwan. We will also cover @SouthwestAirlines, @Envestnet, @ConsolidatedWater, and @AmericanWaterWorksCompany. https://lnkd.in/etEYaydS #FAAlpha #ValensResearch #UniformAccounting #UAFRS #China #Taiwan #Semiconductor #Airlines #Planes #FinTech #InvestmentManagement #WaterScarcity #WasteWater #WaterCrisis #UtilityCompany #Consumer #InterestRate #MacroInsights #strategy #finance #trading #price #investment #wealth #FinancialAdvisor #stocks #economy #FinanceStrategy #Financial #FinancialAdvice #Credit

#latest on The Red Sea Crisis 2023-2024: Regional Implications The Houthis and the Nature of Threat Impact on Global Trade and the Ripple Effect of Red Sea conflict India's Strategic Options and the Red Sea Crisis Military Reflections https://lnkd.in/eiJ-gGcb

Market Recap Equity markets delivered good performance for the week, following central bank meetings in the US and the UK, which revealed that they still expect to cut interest rates this year, most likely in June. US and UK stocks were up over 2% as a result. Japanese equities were the standout performer, up over 5%, with weakness in the currency driving the move. Geopolitics The US and Japan are planning the biggest upgrade to their security alliance since they signed a mutual defence treaty in 1960 in a move to counter China. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will announce plans to restructure the US military command in Japan to strengthen operational planning and exercises between the nations.

The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea threatens to spur a fresh round of inflation, just as Central Banks worldwide have begun to get it under control. The #Houthi rebels - despite U.S. & UK airstrikes - continue to attack merchant ships in the Red Sea. In a further escalation, the Houthis launched a missile at the USS Carney in the Gulf of Aden last week. Clearly, the Houthis are not deterred by the U.S. & UK airstrikes. The U.S. has engaged China, asking them to help mediate the crisis via diplomacy with Iran. If diplomacy fails, Western powers may seek to initiate serious military operations against the #Houthis to restore the shipping lanes in and around the Red Sea - risking a broader war in a region already reeling from the war in Gaza. Unsurprisingly, #energy prices are rising. The SPDR Energy sector ETF (XLE) led all sectors last week, rising about 5.1%. Additionally, Crude Oil futures gained over 6% last week. Elevated energy prices increase transport costs for all types of goods - having an inflationary effect. This creates a conundrum for the #Fed and other Central Banks around the world, who are exploring interest rate cuts now that inflation has returned to manageable levels. Asset allocators must be aware of this emerging geopolitical risk that has the potential to significantly impact global markets. https://loom.ly/CHitwws

The latest edition of The Economist, July 29th-August 11th. Below are just a few of the article headlines of interest: (in square brackets is the surtitle of each. After a colon is the main sub-heading). [Food supplies] Make Ukraine's grain Russia's loss [Foreign policy] The trouble with mergers : An effort to unite Britain's diplomatic and aid corps has not gone well at all [The Bank of England] How high should Britain's interest rates go? [Ukraine’s missile cemetery] Cold Cases : Kyiv - Dissecting Russian rockets for clues The Demonisation of Larry Fink : All he wanted to do was save the planet and make a fortune. Instead, he became the bête noire of the Republican right. But the head of BlackRock tells Henry Tricks he has no regrets. Plenty more to see in this edition, which covers multiple weeks. #theeconomist

Dramatic. This inflation adjusted chart shows us the magnitude of the US debt problem due to fiscal overspending. There is no way out except more inflation. Prepare for the second inflation shock. No more words needed. #inflation #thereturnofhighinflation #theworldoftomorrow

At least there is a person who is trying to consolidate the EU members so that they have a chance of going toe-to-toe with China and the US. This is more relevant from the facts considering Russia-Ukraine war, dependence on US for military support and many other factors. This is the best time for all EU members to begin a consolidation phase between themselves otherwise EU will not be of much relevance going forward.