47G’s Post

Peace is both a right and a responsibility for everyone to secure. Fighting for peace doesn't imply the absence of resistance against war. Fighting for peace doesn't imply the absence of resistance against war. Peace can be achieved through 'violent nonviolent' resistance. Whenever I hear or read statements about peace from State representatives in Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas, it triggers the thought that they might be gearing up for a new conflict. It has become a trend for countries involved in wars, both directly and indirectly, to establish various peace institutes and host peace or security forums. In reality, these efforts are often a cover for significant spending on war preparations. I find solace in my self-reflection, understanding that peace is often used as a guise for war. States preparing for conflict not only speak of peace but also allocate huge funds for war within their national budgets. Comparing the allocations for peace and defense reveals the truth. When a State representative talks about peacemaking or a peaceful world, it's crucial to scrutinize the budget for defense alongside the budget for promoting peace. Until the commitment to peace matches the aggression of war, true victory remains elusive. If even 1% of the war budget were redirected to promoting peace, it could make a tangible difference. We could avoid many wars happening and facing so many humanitarian disasters. People, generally against war, need to unite and mobilize for peace. We should only be 1% as forceful as war in our pursuit of peace. Instead of relying on nuclear weapons and sophisticated war aircraft, popular unity and "violent nonviolent" efforts can triumph over war.

from DR. HEATHER COX RICHARDSON: “…Last night, President Joe Biden spoke to the nation from the Oval Office to shore up U.S. support for Ukraine and Israel. “[H]istory has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They keep going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world keep rising,” he said. “[I]f we walk away and let Putin erase Ukraine’s independence, would-be aggressors around the world would be emboldened to try the same,” he said. “The risk of conflict and chaos could spread in other parts of the world—in the Indo-Pacific… [and] especially in the Middle East.” Biden noted that Russian president Vladimir Putin has suggested he might like to take part of Poland, while one of his top advisors has called three other NATO allies, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Russia’s “Baltic provinces.” Russian aggression there would draw the U.S. into war. Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, he noted, and “it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups” in the Middle East. “The United States and our partners across the region are working to build a better future for the Middle East, one where the Middle East is more stable, better connected to its neighbors, and—through innovative projects like the India–Middle East–Europe rail corridor that I announced this year at the summit of the world’s biggest economies—more predictable markets, more employment, less rage, less grievances, less war when connected. It…would benefit the people of the Middle East, and it would benefit us.” Biden explained that he was sending to Congress “an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs, to support our critical partners, including Israel and Ukraine. It’s a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful, and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren,” he said. That money, he said, would harden the Iron Dome that protects Israel’s skies after the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas that took more than 1,300 lives. But he also said that the U.S. “remains committed to the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and to self-determination. The actions of Hamas terrorists don’t take that right away” …”

Russia has employed the tactics of combined war or non-linear war against a variety of countries, capitalizing on its unique geographical features and a policy characterized by ambiguity. The strategy has proven effective in achieving Russia's objectives against its opponents. In the European Union, Russia's approach during the French elections, involved a blend of cyber tactics, disinformation campaigns, and political interference. The cognitive warfare methods influenced political outcomes and destabilized the region's political landscape. Similarly, in the United States, during the presidential elections, Russia used a combination of cyber-attacks, propaganda, and misinformation to sway public opinion and disrupt the democratic process. In Eastern Europe, especially in the Baltic region, Ukraine, and Estonia, Russia's tactics have been more direct and aggressive. Russia used military interventions, cyber warfare, and the use of local proxies to destabilize these regions. Russia's actions in these areas have been part of a broader strategy to exert influence and counter Western expansion. In the Middle East, particularly in Syria, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, Russia employed a mix of military involvement, diplomatic maneuvers, and economic deals. Their efforts strengthened alliances, expanded influence, and secured its interests in a geopolitically critical region. Russia's involvement in Africa, as seen in Libya, combines military support, economic investments, and diplomatic engagements. Their presence targeted multiple areas, including gaining access to natural resources, establishing military bases, and countering Western influence. Russia's application of non-linear warfare tactics across these regions demonstrates a flexible and adaptive approach. Their strategy uses a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, ranging from military interventions to cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns. The effectiveness of these tactics lies in their ability to exploit vulnerabilities, create confusion, and achieve strategic objectives without resorting to direct confrontation.

"Winning the narrative war on the 'Western Front' resulted in Western efforts centered on bringing Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community as opposed to managing relations to Moscow as in 2014." "The winning strategy included a mix of mutually reinforcing top-down and bottom-up initiatives. Ukrainian and Western governments leveraged existing civil society and grass-roots networks, which in turn played a crucial role combatting Russian disinformation and raising funds for humanitarian and military aid. Anyone with a computer could participate in the defence of Ukraine." My article, published by the "HROMADA Nordic-Baltic knowledge-based input network to the rebuilding of Ukraine", is a translated and abridged version of a chapter originally written for the Allmänna Försvarsföreningen (The Swedish Defence Association) book "A New Generation's Voice on the Defence of Democracy (Book available online here: https://lnkd.in/ds9ArwU9). https://lnkd.in/d5q_49zi

On August 7, 2008, Russia initiated a new phase of its occupation of Georgia. Despite the low dependence on technology in Georgia’s critical infrastructure at the time, this conflict marked the first use of cyber attacks in support of combat operations. The Kremlin, not yet isolated from the civilized world, effectively suppressed the flow of objective information through cyber operations, disseminating disinformation about events like the so-called Tskhinvali attack, the alleged death of 2,000 Ossetians, and other false narratives. With the support of our American, Estonian, and Polish friends, we managed to break through the information blockade. However, Russian propaganda still influenced many, including Georgian citizens. Western military, political, and humanitarian aid halted the occupier’s advance towards Tbilisi and supported the successful non-recognition policy of the occupied territories. The policy of appeasement practiced by the international community in the subsequent years emboldened Russia, leading to the unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, plunging the world into its most severe crisis since World War II. Today, Russia employs hybrid methods to undermine Georgia’s relations with Western partners, increase economic dependence on Russia, deepen internal polarization, and elevate pro-Russian forces to power. As a result, Georgia faces the threat of falling back into Russia’s orbit, isolated and vulnerable. Despite these challenges, the unwavering resilience of the Georgian people and continued support from our Western allies inspire hope for a future of sovereignty and prosperity. There my article about Russian cyber operations in 2008 Russo-Georgia war. https://lnkd.in/dX63uCnk

"There are two parties in this conflict. One is Russia; the other is Ukraine. We fundamentally want to see Ukraine win this war and have made that clear, including, I think, by providing them with billions of dollars in security assistance. [...] And we want to see Ukraine win, which, by its very nature, means Russia losing the war. [...] I think our position on who we want to see win this war and who we want to see lose it has been pretty clear for more than two years now." (Matthew Miller, spokesperson of the US Department of State). It is such a positive and apparently, straight forward, clear message. The US wants Ukraine to win and Russia to lose. Plain and simple. The only problem is his reference to the US actions during the last two years. Its actions since 24 February 2022 (or 20 February 2014) do not match a conventional understanding of what a victory looks like. Why? (1) The US and Europe decided to reduce NATO's level of ambitions in the face of Russian aggression. Instead of stopping a war that threatens the security of the Alliance in line with its strategic concept, they decided that NATO would provide non-lethal support only. (2) The inflow of defence aid from the West has been slow and incremental throughout. It has allowed Russia to adapt and dig in, reducing Ukraine's ability to liberate occupied territories. Western strategy has allowed Russia to regain the strategic initiative. (3) Neither the US nor Europe have set up Ukraine for victory (as defined by Ukraine and Eastern Europe). It is still being denied crucial capabilities. Some were provided far too late to impact Ukraine battlefield successes. Heavy weapons are not being delivered in the quantities needed to achieve a decisive breakthrough. (4) Some countries have imposed restrictions on the use of their weapons, creating a sanctuary along the Ukrainian borders from which Russian forces can launch their attacks with impunity. The restrictions have huge psychological impact on both the victim and the aggressor. (5) The US and Europe has yet to develop a war-winning strategy. They fail to support Ukraine's vision of what a victory looks like. More than 10 years into the war, they still discuss negotiations. Having failed to understand Russia's broader strategic aim and objectives, Ukraine's survival within the territory it is presently controlling is often presented as a victory. Luckily, as I argued in my latest article, from debates of troop deployment to speeches about the pre-war era, there is a growing sense in Europe that the time for appeasing Putin has passed. Europe is slowly realising that it needs to do so much more. Military intervention is in my opinion, inevitable. It is time the for the US and Europe to define what it means to win. They will never win it if the purpose of the war is not victory. More importantly, they run the risk of being defeated for failing to defend itself in Ukraine, alongside its brothers-in-arms. Cartoon: Steve Bright

9/11 and the protracted effects of war has taken a tremendous toll on our relationship with our regional Latin American partners. More importantly, our lack of long term commitment. I don’t recall having seen what a long term 20 year vision plan for Latin America is but it seems to change with the ebb and flows of what is the latest buzz for the latest regional commander - remember illuminating networks? I’ll save the details for private discussions so as not not embarrass a few. I can tell you and share what my 5 years in Guatemala looked like 2017 through 2022 as I can only describe as “using bubblegum” to make things happy. Incredibly, most US agencies wanted to take credit for successful operations. If Guatemala was a story worth looking into, my tour in Ecuador 2014 through 2016 is even crazier although the military was very influential to maintain U.S. relationships despite of Rafael Correa. 2005 was a significant downsward trend with the left wave affecting Latin America with Chavez’s socialism of the 21st century and the Foro de Sao Paolo roadmap. We are now at a post Afghanistan period where we could make long term difference. When I see the amount of aid and assistance going to Ukraine, we could not get a satphone or fuel from DoD To keep real operations going. We had to look at ways of finding solutions for the right now. If our core DoD goals and objectives are built within a stablished framework, it should not be subjected to the ebbs and flows of personality or political changes. Personality and political changes come and go with the changing winds; core goals do not. From my foxhole!

It breaks my heart and reduces my soul on the Eve of Holy Easter to say this - but Donald Tusk is right. Europe must absolutely prepare for war. It is not too late to avert war, but it is almost too late to commence preparing for war. Europe must arise and urgently consolidate a pan European security structure over and above its NATO membership for multiple reasons but predominantly because we still do not know what the position of the US will be after the next US presidential election. Should Donald Trump become the next American President, according to his statements in the media about NATO's future, it is almost certain he will enact previous plans to dissolve NATO and that it could happen instantly once declared and legislated. The administrative wake that would follow however, could take a decade to resolve on all sorts of levels leaving a deep and dangerous security vacuum with all sorts of unthinkable security implications, threats, and dilemmas that would totally, instantly destabilize Europe. It is an extremely perilous place for Europe to find itself in and it would constitute a perfect opportunity for Russia or any enemy to exploit. In effect Donald Trump would be handing over not just Ukraine but Europe to Russia on a silver platter. This is the most alarming and most threatening security dilemma in our world today, and it is real as it is surreal. Whether there is a threat to Europe or not - Europe should never be allowed to be exposed so easily like this, much less threatened to be exposed in this way by a US presidential candidate. It is not acceptable. Europe will always be America's ally but it must be militarily independent of America. It is time to do this and to do it as soon as possible. Global interventions have failed to curb the exponentially increasing rabid appetite for war on the part of Russia- instead seeing it become more violent, more threatening and more irresponsible. It has escalated its brutality at all levels on Ukraine. It has unreasonably, unjustifiably and irresponsibly threatened Europe with nuclear destruction if it doesn't agree to give up Ukraine to become integrated into Russia according to its leaders. This is a time Europe cannot afford the complacency to trust an ambivalent America ruled by Trump. Europe must take its own security measures to formulate a unified European security structure ideally with UK - whether NATO is dissolved or not. As a start project, Europe must build a physical new "iron curtain" European border wall from Finland, the Baltics and Poland in the north to Ukraine and Crimea in the South to keep the Russian invaders and their Axis militias out. Now that Putin has returned to power for another six years, this action is not only necessary but must become imminent. These matters should be understood by the time of the 75th NATO Anniversary celebrations in Washington later this year. David Cameron Ursula von der Leyen Mircea Geoana Rishi Sunak Emmanuel Macron

The war in Ukraine has now waged for over 600 days across a frontline that spans over 600 miles, bringing with it a scale of destruction not seen since World War II. There’s growing resistance to Ukraine support, largely from House Republicans, despite well-documented moral and national security arguments for continued aid made by bipartisan leaders and military experts. I wrote a piece for Harvard’s Belfer Center where I describe the needs of the frontline and the whole-of-society effort that has kept Ukraine’s fight alive thus far. I also offer recommendations for how public, private, and nonprofit leaders can better fill existing gaps on the frontline. The purpose of this piece is not to rehash the cases already made for continued aid, but to provide greater color to what the situation looks like on the ground in Ukraine and demonstrate why Ukraine’s military is desperate for continued support. With global chaos and instability approaching a breaking point, steadfast support to Ukraine not just from the federal government, but from the private and nonprofit sectors, is more critical than ever. Abandoning Ukraine would be a decision that puts at risk the lives of millions and the line between democracy and tyranny. Shoutout to Grace Jones for helping get this published.

Ukrainians should be paying close attention. Kateryna Koval fyi he is one of Congressman Wenstrup's best friends. He lives 40 kilometers from Tipp City. Remember how important Ohio is to Ukraine. Make sure people understand what you learned from your visit. Remember, you didn't ask anyone for money or material, and you didn't ask for anything other than fellowship to help Ukrainians learn "how-to" the American way. Push the fight to the enemy, seize the initiative but recognize Russia is all hands on deck to influence Congress, media, business, elected officials, thought leaders, military, teachers, entrepreneurs and grandmother's. Russia has the ability, including Wagner Group PMC Bot farms operating right now. Rally the Ukrainians to win hearts and minds, Person2Person, Community2Community, Warrior2Warrior, Cadet2Cadet. https://lnkd.in/g3GzMGdM