Sarita Jackson, PhD, CGBP

The Future of Central Asian Integration in the Shadow of U.S.-China Confrontation Together with Abakhon Sultonazarov, we decided to consider issues of integration in Central Asia against the background of the emergence of such formats as the B5 1 and the China-Central Asia Secretariat. Here are our five key conclusions: 1. Central Asian countries increasingly delegate the process of institutionalizing regional cooperation to external actors like the U.S. and China, as evident from initiatives such as the B5 1 Business Forums and the China-Central Asia Secretariat. This delegation is partly due to the slow intraregional integration among the Central Asian states themselves, which often unite only in response to immediate threats or crises. 2. Both the U.S. and China have shaped their engagement in Central Asia around economic integration and security cooperation. These external powers contribute to institutional frameworks that promote strategic economic cooperation, as well as address regional security challenges. This includes fostering regular high-level summits and business forums aimed at enhancing regional economic ties. 3. While external involvement has brought structured dialogue and cooperation to the region, it also poses challenges to regional autonomy. Central Asian nations must balance the interests of influential external actors, which complicates finding common regional solutions and can influence domestic and foreign policies in favor of these more powerful partners. 4. Unlike regions with strong supranational coordinating bodies like the EU, Central Asia lacks a central coordinating mechanism, making it more reliant on external frameworks for institutional cooperation. The text suggests that adopting an approach similar to other intergovernmental organizations could help Central Asia increase its autonomy and internal cooperation by using effective coordination structures and a unified regional stance. 5. The U.S. and China have distinct approaches to their engagement in Central Asia. The U.S. tends to support business community involvement to promote economic integration and lower trade barriers, while China focuses on state-level cooperation, emphasizing infrastructure and long-term economic integration through initiatives like the One Belt, One Road project. This divergence reflects the broader strategic goals of each power in the region, with the U.S. emphasizing regional trade cooperation and democratic values and China focusing on creating economic dependencies and regional connectivity. https://lnkd.in/dJXwvxAC

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Venezuelans will vote July 28 in the country's most highly anticipated election in more than a decade, with polls consistently indicating strong support for the Democratic Unity Platform's Edmundo Gonzalez against declining ratings for incumbent Nicolas Maduro. There is a significant risk that the Maduro regime will crackdown, claim fraud, or interfere with communication channels if the election outcome is unfavorable to the current government. But the Maduro regime should also know that the international community is watching these elections closely: https://lnkd.in/eynWEHQM

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