The World Bank reposted this
I talked to Central Bank Central's Kathleen Hays about inflation, monetary policy, and growth prospects in light of recent developments… See a few headlines and full interview below. * Inflation: Central banks have made substantial progress in the fight against inflation... We think that global inflation will continue on its downward path... * Tightening cycle and activity: Economic growth, unemployment, and inflation have recently returned to historical norms on average (albeit with important differences across countries) during this tightening cycle… What has not changed during the 2020-24 interest rate cycle is the increased role of global factors in explaining movements in domestic interest rates over time… * Interest rates: Inflation is coming down (close to the targets), activity is slowing, and labor markets are weakening… All of these are providing grounds for interest rate cuts… Any recalibration of interest rates going forward should be gradual (barring any unexpected shocks), considering the interactions between global factors and domestic circumstances. Markets are now expecting about 4 cuts by the Fed in this year. That can happen... But it will not be a huge surprise if we just end up with 2 or 3 cuts (depending on inflation and unemployment prints)… * US economy: In our baseline, we do not see a recession in the United States. Our US growth forecast for this year is around 2.5 percent, and for next year, it is about 1.8 percent. * Debt: Many emerging and developing economies, especially vulnerable ones, will continue to face tight financial conditions for the foreseeable future. Given the significant amount of debt accumulation in frontier markets and lower-income countries, debt servicing will remain a serious challenge. #econdev #globaleconomy #worldbank #economics #worldbankgroup #FederalReserveBoard #interestrate #monetarypolicy #inflation #globalinflation #commodities #commodityprices #oil #volatility #developing #economies #debt #emergingmarkets #developingcountries Emerging Markets Intelligence & Research | EMIR The World Bank World Bank Development Economics The World Bank Group European Central Bank Bank for International Settlements – BIS The Brookings Institution Commodity Trading Club Commodity Trading News Commodity Insights LIVE Oil by S&P Global Commodity Insights Bank of England Bank of Canada Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Federal Reserve Board Deutsche Bundesbank IFC - International Finance Corporation International and Monetary Economics Network International Monetary Fund The World Bank Treasury (IBRD • IDA) Carlos Arteta Phil Kenworthy, CFA Joe Rebello Nikita Perevalov jongrim ha