sistemaFutura

Have you ever wondered why some ideas go viral while others stagnate? Why are some arguments able to cross group boundaries, while others stay in silos? Social Network research has examined these and similar questions for many years. Here are some of our notes at sistemaFutura from some of our favorite research: 🙋🏾♀️Who goes first? Behaviors that are costly, unfamiliar, or risky –e.g.new technologies, large financial decisions– require reinforcement from multiple people in one’s network. This type of influence across a network is known as a “complex contagion” (Centola & Macy, 2007) Most people don’t want to jump in first! 🌉 So how do we connect people to new ideas? To spread behavior across a large network, multiple connections between smaller social groups are necessary. This is like having a “wide bridge” between these siloed communities, so that multiple “vehicles” can cross at the same time. (Watts & Strogatz, 1998) For example, let’s say one social group in Pear county loves electric vehicles, yet those in Peach county would rather stick to their gas cars 🚙. Electric vehicles won’t easily spread across to Peach county unless multiple people with deep trust in both communities can cross over that wide, metaphorical bridge on their EVs and vouch for them. 🎇 Do we need to rethink the influencer approach? It may be counterintuitive, but central influencers – those with plentiful connections in one group – aren't necessarily the best “seed” for a new behavior. (Rossman & Fisher, 2021) Rather, people who are located where chains of “wide bridges” extend out into the social network are best placed to spread ideas. (Guilbeault & Centola, 2021) Later on, central influencers are likely to join in! And this is great for establishing a new norm. References: Centola, D., & Macy, M. W. (2007). Complex contagions and the weakness of long ties. American Journal of Sociology, 113(3), 702-734. doi: 10.1086/52184 Watts, D. J., & Strogatz, S. H. (1998). Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’networks. nature, 393(6684), 440-442. Guilbeault, D., & Centola, D. (2021). Topological measures for identifying and predicting the spread of complex contagions. Nature Communications, 12(1), 4704. https://lnkd.in/gmjgYaNN Rossman, G., & Fisher, J.C. (2021). Network hubs cease to be influential in the presence of low levels of advertising. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118. Hashtags:#behavioralscience #behavioraldesign #publicpolicy #systemsthinking #systemdynamics #behavioralsystems #policy #government #research #networkscience #computationalsocialscience #socialnorms #socialnetworks #collectivebehavior

Since we launched sF five months ago, we've been quite busy: developing new tools, working on projects, and bringing on new parners. We've reached the point where our initial team isn't enough for the interest we're getting, though. So, now we're hiring at sistemaFutura and have two roles currently! We're currently looking for a junior computational social scientist and a program manager. You can find out more about these, and any upcoming, roles on our job site: https://lnkd.in/eTV-ChBn We hope to talk with you soon!

What is “systemic brittleness”?   And how can policy makers and practitioners address it? Systemic brittleness occurs when interventions don’t work as planned because the designer failed to see and address system interactions. (Schmidt and Stenger 2021) The challenge can limit the effectiveness of an intervention, or cause it to backfire! What’s the primary cause? 🔬Forgetting to zoom out, and design for the system. 🔍For example, work requirements for anti-poverty programs can make it *harder* to find or maintain work. If we take away basic resources, such as healthcare and prescription medications, people may struggle even more to find or maintain employment. (Neuert et al., 2019).  ❗Over 18,000 people lost their healthcare when Arkansas added work requirements for medicaid in 2018. If adding to a healthy workforce was the goal, this policy certainly failed right out of the gate. ✍️How can we strategically design interventions to avoid brittleness?  Schmidt and Stenger provide three recommendations: 1. Widen sources of data. Use mixed-methods research to better understand the target audience, the whole problem, and its real-world context. 2. Design with a systems view.  Explore how interventions can be effected by other parts of a system. Seek to understand the “plumbing” or choice infrastructure that interventions are embedded in. 3. Monitor progress for larger, end goals. While a single unit of behavior change may satisfy an intervention goal, consider the broader outcomes desired from the intervention. For more insights on behavioral brittleness and choice infrastructures, these publications can be opened from the “Featured” section of Ruth Schmidt's page. References:  Schmidt R, Stenger K. Behavioral brittleness: the case for strategic behavioral public policy. Behavioural Public Policy. 2024;8(2):212-237. doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.16. https://lnkd.in/gnDzh-8W Neuert H, Fischer, E, Darling, M, Barrows, A., 2019. https://lnkd.in/g-KFGkug Hashtags:#behavioralscience #behavioraldesign #publicpolicy #systemsthinking #systemdynamics #behavioralsystems #policy #government #research

What happens after someone's #behavior changes, what happens around it? In behavioral science, we are often blind to the systemic impacts on our targeted interventions. When working on #complex issues, like gender-based violence, we need to understand the web of actors and dynamics among them if we are to avoid exacerbating bad outcomes, or sustaining unfair systems. A combined systemic & behavioral lens -- or #behavioralsystems -- helps us see where in the system a change in behavior would be most beneficial, and foresee possible unwanted effects: to act upsteam, to create combinations of interventions, to remain dynamic in the face of changing conditions, to estimate systemic effects.

What happens when we fail to explore and plan for systemic challenges?  It can be dangerous, or deadly. Many well-intentioned campaigns urge survivors of domestic violence to seek help: report the abuser, go to the clinic. In Guatemala, for example, survivors seeking medical care are encouraged by hospital staff to file a report that names the perpetrator(s), or even file an automatic report without the patient’s awareness, which can get back to the perpetrator. 🔄 If we fail to understand the dynamics in the system – the institutional factors and social norms affecting people’s choices and the chain of events these may trigger – we run the risk of causing more harm than good. We’ve seen this many times in our work. When the police won’t take their cases seriously, or are unable to enforce restraining orders in gang-controlled areas. ❗Or when families won’t take survivors back into their homes for breaking the unspoken rule of keeping problems in the family. When survivors do not find safety in shelters, even when they are available. ➡️ The result?  Women's safety decreases after a report in many places – due to retaliations and even femicide.  Without a system model to catch critical dynamics like this, policy blindspots can backfire tragically. ❓How could a behavioral and systems analysis approach start to address these dynamics? #behavioralscience #behavioraldesign #publicpolicy #systemsthinking #systemdynamics #healthcare #gbv #ipv #behavioralsystems #policy

What is a “behavioral systems” approach?  The combination of behavioral science and systems analysis. And we believe it’s the future of our field.    Behavioral science generally approaches problems with a cause → effect perspective, and for good reason. We love attribution, we love the ability to use rigorous methods that pin down the causal mechanisms of a specific variable. But what about delayed, long-term effects, or side effects? From a systems view, they are simply, other effects.  And they can make or break your intervention. Enter behavioral systems. We expand beyond a single cause → effect to model the larger system: qualitatively, statistically, and/or computationally.  Then we can explore how individuals are embedded in a web of causes, effects, and structural forces. In most systems, reactions and feedback flow in often unexpected ways, with ripple effects in the short, medium and long term. Finally, we analyze the model to test where, when, and how to beneficially intervene. The result? Interventions are ranked by their predicted outcomes. This allows us to see if we’re focused on the right leverage point(s) in a system. This is critical information for leaders as they face expensive program or product decisions.  #behavioralscience #behavioraldesign #publicpolicy #systems #systemsthinking #systemdynamics #leadership #future #management

We're working to launch sistemaFutura soon, but we wanted to take a moment, step back, and celebrate International Women's Day.

Today, we launch sistemaFutura: an organization focused on studying and shaping complex systems for social impact.   Many global challenges arise from complex interactions of people, organizations, and institutions. These systems behave in non-obvious ways that resist change, and generate outcomes that no-one wants. We work with development partners and private companies to tackle a range of these complex systems: from gender-based violence, to financial inequality, to environmental degradation. To make that happen, we are developing cutting edge methodologies that incorporate simulation modeling and formal systems thinking into behavioral interventions to amplify their impact. You can learn more about us at sistemaFutura.com. You can also reach out anytime at [email protected].   Until next time, Alexandra De Filippo, Head of Programs (Co-Founder) Stephen Wendel, Head of Methodology (Co-Founder) Our Affiliates: Paula Brito, Innovation Specialist and Behavioral Designer Laura de Reynal, Senior Researcher and Behavioral Designer Floriza Freire Gennari, DrPH, Behavioral Scientist and GBV Specialist  Abigail M. Hatcher, PhD, Social Scientist Khwezi Magwaza, Content Strategist, Digital Creative, and Impact Storyteller Mark Millrine, Expert in Experimental Design and Child-centered Programming Van Rais, Behavioral Branding Expert and High-end Designer Ruth Schmidt, Professor, Designer, and Systems Thinker

We're working to launch sistemaFutura soon, but we wanted to take a moment, step back, and celebrate International Women's Day.