Manhattan Institute

This week, as the Republican National Committee's convention ushers the GOP and their ticket of former President Donald Trump and Senator JD Vance into the final stretch of the 2024 election, the Manhattan Institute released its latest national poll. We find Trump with something unseen for Republicans in decades: a healthy polling lead in July. Although there is still time for things to shift and Trump still polls below 50% in this survey, his lead is strong and includes a sizable advantage among independent voters. Notably, we fielded this survey prior to the former president’s near-assassination, and historically, assassination attempts have sometimes boosted the political standing of presidents. Regarding the sitting president, voters have deep concerns with Joe Biden’s cognitive capacity and a majority believe it is unclear who is really running the country day-to-day. On the issues, Trump leads in the core policy debates that define the election, immigration and the economy, leaving little room for Biden to maneuver. The Biden campaign’s efforts to center the election on abortion and democracy—issues on which we find that the president does hold an advantage over his opponent—do not appear to meaningfully erode Trump’s edge. A new American policy consensus is emerging. It is one that remains inclined toward supply-side solutions on economic issues, but hostile toward changes to the country’s largest entitlement programs. The new consensus is vigorously opposed to any continued tolerance of illegal immigration, but open to a merit-based immigration system that rewards the highly skilled. And on social issues, well, it depends. While most voters signal support for left-leaning policy prescriptions on abortion and gun control, a clear majority of likely voters indicates conservative preferences on other social issues. These include an intense skepticism regarding gender transition treatments for minors, support for ending racial favoritism to move toward colorblind equality, and a wholesale embrace of tough-on-crime policing and prosecution. Read my full analysis of our latest survey below: https://lnkd.in/eAnSk9Tv

“The median financial assets of under 25s in 2022 was $4,000, according to the Fed. But when the market turns, and odds are it will eventually because we are headed into a more volatile era, Gen Zers, under-diversified and heavy into crypto, are especially vulnerable to big losses.” Allison Schrager for Bloomberg Opinion.

Is housing now health care? Some policymakers think so, claiming it can reduce health spending. The White House suggests it will reduce anxiety and heart disease. Health-care companies are investing billions, but Chris Pope argues the evidence is weak.

Hannah E. Meyers for Tablet Magazine: "What has changed in New York City in the past decade is that, by changing our public safety policies, we stopped our criminal justice system from doing the same amount of official judging that it used to."

"The 2017 tax law doubled the child tax credit, making it now worth up to $2,000. Without congressional action, it will be halved again, though the old exemptions for dependents will also return," writes Robert VerBruggen for Washington Examiner.

"Affordable quality housing is important, but it isn’t healthcare," argues Chris Pope. "The problem of how to increase the supply of housing in dense urban areas is unlikely to be solved by making it health insurers’ responsibility."

"We should rethink the idea that semaglutide — and its name brands such as Ozempic and Wegovy —should be available only to the rich who can afford them," writes Tim Rosenberger.

Charles Fain Lehman for The Dispatch: "The challenges of marijuana legalization are becoming more and more obvious."

"Even if you think it’s a good idea to try giving migrants cash cards instead of direct aid for meals and other basics, the way Mayor Eric Adams has gone about it is not the way to do it," argues Nicole Gelinas.

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