John Burns Research and Consulting reposted this
Remodeling has now moved from a state of pull forward to deferral. How useful are historical comparisons and what will set this period apart? Let's take the early 1980s...also a period of remodeling deferral (preceded by high interest rates). This was followed by an outlier remodeling boom. Will history repeat itself? Let's temper this expectation. One BIG difference is the early 1980s recession created the conditions for high unemployment which fueled a remodeling boom, as labor on the sidelines reentered the labor force. (see below graphic) Very different conditions today: Our recent survey of ~500 remodelers indicated that, despite a very soft remodeling market, skilled labor availability ranks as the number 2 factor (after consumer uncertainty) holding back the remodeling market RIGHT NOW. Just how acute will skilled labor shortages at the install level become when the market rebounds?! This means we need to turn to labor productivity for remodeling to grow and avoid runaway remodeling labor cost inflation. Building product manufacturers recognize this and are innovating to design products with faster install times and using less labor. We discussed some great innovations in our recent webinar. Mark Twain said: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” History is not a copy and paste. We do expect the remodeling market to grow following this period of deferral--but with its own structural supply challenges. What do others think? How can we learn from the past to solve tomorrow? #remodeling #housing #jbrec