Institute for the Study of War

NEW: A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attacks targeting US forces. Read more in the July 26, 2024 Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/e3QaQuiy Additional Key Takeaways: Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. They discussed the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. An anonymous IRGC Quds Force official claimed that Iran gave electromagnetic munitions to Lebanese Hezbollah. This claim is part of a larger effort by Iran and its Axis of Resistance to deter a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian emphasized regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues while reiterating his subordination to Khamenei.

NEW: The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Read more in the July 26, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://lnkd.in/ed9xzfJQ Additional Key Takeaways: The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces' AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 – the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defense officials since April 2024. The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians' internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia. Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on July 25. Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that the Russian intelligence services appear to have further integrated Russian forces' cyber and conventional capabilities.

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NEW: The CCG continued to expand its “law enforcement activities” to assert the PRC’s claim over the Taiwan Strait. Four CCG ships entered restricted waters in four different locations around Taiwan’s Kinmen island group on July 19. Kinmen is a Taiwanese island chain located just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the PRC’s coast. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said this was the 32nd such incursion into Kinmen’s restricted waters in 2024 The PRC began regular CCG patrols around Kinmen and incursions into Kinmen’s restricted and prohibited since February 2024 to assert its sovereignty over those waters and to punish Taiwan for electing President Lai Ching-te, whom the PRC considers a dangerous separatist. It substantially increased the frequency of incursions in May, around the time of Lai’s inauguration, and shifted from fixed-line patrols into Kinmen waters to designating “patrol areas” within which individual CCG ships can patrol in a less predictable pattern. The expansion of CCG “law enforcement” activities into Taiwan-controlled waters around Kinmen and eastward into international waters near Taiwan shows an intensifying PRC campaign to assert control over the waters near and around Taiwan. Read More: https://lnkd.in/e8UvTcWW Other Key Takeaways: • Taiwan and the PRC agreed to resume negotiations about the February 14 capsizing incident that killed two PRC fishermen fleeing the Taiwanese Coast Guard near Kinmen. • PRC officials and media slammed Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises as a futile attempt to “resist reunification.” • The PRC held the Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress, which focused on promoting economic development in alignment with national strategic goals. • The PRC and Philippines reached a “provisional arrangement” for rotation and resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, though significant points of disagreement remain. • The PRC hosted a “reconciliation dialogue” for Palestinian factions in which Hamas and Fatah signed a joint declaration that stated their intention to form a temporary post-war unity government in Gaza and the West Bank.

NEW: Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/en2Z9C4F Key Takeaways: The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine. The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe. Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia. Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.

NEW: US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, who could be palatable to all parties, as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/e7WBpNkB Key Takeaways: Netanyahu Visits Washington, DC: US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25. Harris told Netanyahu that it is “time for this war to end” and that “it is time to get this [ceasefire] deal done. Iraq: Two unspecified security officials cited by Reuters reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched four rockets at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar, on July 25. Iran: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami claimed that Iran had exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries in an interview with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on July 22.

NEW | Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 24, 2024: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of the US Congress on July 24. Netanyahu described his vision for “a demilitarized and deradicalized” post-war Gaza Strip but did not offer details about how to achieve this vision. Netanyahu further said that Israel would need to ”retain overriding security control” over the Gaza Strip for the ”foreseeable future” to prevent the resurgence of Hamas. Netanyahu added that the Gaza Strip ”should have a civilian administration run by Palestinians.” Full report: https://lnkd.in/ess_EWbM Key Takeaways: Gaza Strip: Egypt may agree to a long-term Israeli presence along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border, according to an anonymous Israeli official. Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah published drone footage of an IDF airbase in northern Israel as part of an effort to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon. Iraq: The United States and Iraq continued discussing their bilateral security partnership, which is in conflict with Iranian-backed efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.

NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2024: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eEa5z7ru Key Takeaways: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with People's Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou on July 24 and discussed the war in Ukraine and the PRC's potential role in a future negotiated settlement of the war. The Russian State Duma adopted an amendment on July 24 that will allow Russian commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communication and navigation devices at the frontline, drawing continued backlash from Russian ultranationalists as well as other Duma deputies. The Georgian State Security Service (SUS or SSSG) reiterated standard Kremlin information operations targeting former Georgian opposition figures and former Ukrainian law enforcement officials. An assassination attempt injured a reported senior Russian military intelligence officer in Moscow City on July 24. Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Avdiivka and Donetsk City. Russian officials continue efforts to entice Russians into military service with monetary incentives.

NEW: The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with a separate Chinese-mediated proposal for a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. The US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip. The Beijing proposal would amount to an Israeli defeat, if implemented. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/eEBYumFk Key Takeaways: Iraq: Four unspecified Iraqi sources cited by Reuters on July 22 claimed that an Iraqi delegation in Washington, DC, has requested the United States begin withdrawing its forces from Iraq starting in September 2024. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partners in Iraq and Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that a US withdrawal from Syria would very likely cause a rapid ISIS resurgence there within 12 to 24 months that would then spill into Iraq. Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a speech to Parliament in which he implicitly called on Parliament not to obstruct potential efforts by President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian to resume nuclear negotiations with the West. Khamenei simultaneously encouraged Parliament to work to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. The pursuit of nuclear negotiations to lift sanctions caused by the nuclear program and an effort to mitigate the effects of sanctions in general are not mutually exclusive. Houthi Attacks on Israel: Unspecified military sources in Sanaa told Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar on July 23 that the Houthis will target new civilian sites in Israel, which is consistent with the Houthi leader’s statements on July 21. Houthi Threats Against Saudi Arabia: The Houthis appear to have successfully coerced Saudi Arabia into stopping a Yemeni government effort to cut Houthi access to the international finance system. Saudi Arabia likely pressured the Yemeni government to cancel its decisions to prevent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah may be expanding the locations it targets in northern Israel. This expansion follows threats by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to expand the group’s targets on July 17.

NEW: The Russian State Duma proposed an amendment that would allow commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communications and navigation devices at the frontline, prompting significant milblogger backlash and highlighting how Russian forces continue to struggle with command and control (C2) issues and overreliance on insecure technologies to conduct combat operations in Ukraine. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/gWgHU6gr Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against a ferry crossing in Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 22 to 23. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed a new Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Services on July 22, and there were several personnel changes within the Russian State Duma on July 23. Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Siversk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Russian regional officials are continuing to increase financial incentives to entice more men to fight in Ukraine. Russian occupation officials continue to rely on Russian security organs for law enforcement and filtration functions in occupied Ukraine aimed at degrading pro-Ukrainian sentiment.