Grid Status

We're getting close to rolling out the biggest update we've ever made to Grid Status and we are seeking users to try it out. It's a complete redesign of the site, centering around a new live nodal price map. There's a lot more to say about this release, but I'll save it until it's officially launched. Please comment or DM if you're interested in playing with it.

Yesterday NYISO provided a nice primer into some of its major price-driving congestion patterns. West to East, Upstate to Downstate, North to rest of state, and Southeast NY to upstate. The only missing congestion was NYC into Long Island, which we'll see more of this summer. While people get excited about $4k or $5k prices in ERCOT, for a few intervals Long Island actually had some of the highest LMPs we saw this spring, approaching $7,000/MWh. We're gearing up to release the public price map so that everyone can stay on top of the grid in real-time this summer.

California and Texas are reaching new heights in utility-scale solar generation this year. While both grids are approaching 20 GW peaks in solar production, the backdrop of each grid is markedly different. CAISO’s solar build-out represents a larger proportion of the region’s much smaller peak demand and is nearly matched by behind-the-meter (BTM) solar capacity. Additionally, CAISO’s solar fleet benefits from a well-coordinated relationship with a larger, longer-duration battery fleet, facilitated by market rules. In contrast, ERCOT manages a higher load, a generating fleet with substantially more thermal assets, and surprisingly little BTM given the high homeownership and strong solar potential across the state. Batteries in ERCOT by comparison are more freewheeling in how they bid and operate while averaging substantially shorter durations. We put a little school spirit into the color scheme for this. Hopefully, the rivalry stays exciting through the rest of 2024! To track these records and more, check out our site.

ERCOT hit a new record for battery dispatch tonight at 3.2 GW. This smashed the previous record set less than a year ago by over 1 GW ( 47%). At the peak, batteries were serving 5.1% of load in ERCOT — an all-time record based on our tracking. Net load shattered the 30-day average today, with the peak clearly at the point of most duress on the grid. The operational impacts of net load continue to rise in importance relative to load alone. While PRC maintained a healthy margin, capacity with an offer in SCED declined all evening to very low levels resulting in prices just a couple dollars short of $5,000/MWh.

Battery storage has been a standout performer in California ISO this spring. With over 7 GW of discharge at the peak ( 100% since 2023), batteries are reshaping the grid dynamics. In our latest blog post, we explore how this intensification of previous trends has had a series of knock-on effects in CAISO, most notably manifesting in the operations of natural gas. This year's record-high solar generation means that batteries are charging on cheap solar during the day and displacing natural gas when solar generation is ramping up and down in California. Despite this substantial increase in midday demand due to battery charging, there was no corresponding increase in natural gas generation. In fact, the opposite occurred. From the mid-morning until the late evening, average hourly gas generation was at its lowest levels in the last 7 years. Is California finally moving away from natural gas? The key question going forward is whether this is indicative of a new reality in CAISO, or simply an outlier spring. While many elements point to this being a structural change largely driven by the increased presence of batteries, the grid is changing quickly and sometimes in unpredictable ways. For more visuals of the data and our in-depth analysis, check out our full blog below https://lnkd.in/ggPuXJQ7

Wholesale energy prices in Texas nearly hit the offer cap of $5,000/MWh last night. Simultaneously, battery discharge to the grid peaked over 2,000 MW, a level that has happened only once before. While that represents only 4% of the total load, it is the highest percentage ever recorded in ERCOT according to the data we track at Grid Status. Perhaps more noteworthy for what's to come: it's the fourth time that particular record has been broken this month alone. Looking ahead to the week, there is an active notice in ERCOT for a possible 'Emergency Condition of Reserve Capacity Deficiency' that starts tonight and continues through Wednesday evening.

Prices exceeded $4,000 across all of ERCOT tonight. While gross load is under 60 GW, net load is the highest its been in the past 30 days due to low/falling wind output and sunset. Battery discharge peaked well over 1.5 GW, which is the highest it's been since the Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 (EEA 2) in September 2023. With ERCOT-wide prices at $4,500/MWh, batteries may have been setting the price. With thermal outages over 20 GW , the system is quite tight.

While most eclipse observers will be staring at the sky, grid operators will be making sure the power stays on in the darkness. Here’s what to expect in each of the regions affected by the eclipse. In our latest blog post, we review the operational plans of ISOs in the path of the event and wrote about what we will be watching for come Monday. More importantly, while sudden ramp downs like this are rare today, they represent an operational paradigm that will become more common as the energy transition proceeds. When the next total solar eclipse passes over the United States in 2044, the dispatchable energy landscape may look markedly different. Batteries will be present in vastly greater quantities, but the contributions of as-yet-uncommercialized resources like hydrogen and new geothermal may be integral parts of the grid. Either way, the operational response, if not the long-lead planning, is likely to become ever more critical elements of grid management in the coming decades. Read the post here: https://lnkd.in/dtJaQa-N And, if you like energy data as much as us, be sure to check out our special dashboard to track live generation, load, and price data as the eclipse travels over the United States: https://lnkd.in/dHg8PgCm

Early this morning, a bridge collapsed outside of Baltimore. While search and rescue was the immediate goal, it appears that measures were also taken to secure the electrical grid. The first place we observed the response was electricity prices spiking in the region. Why did prices diverge on either side of the river? With a disabled ship under high voltage lines, the local transmission owner may have taken measures to limit flows over the affected area. We can see that forced outages were put in place around Brandon Shores this morning. This highlights the challenging task of maintaining the electrical grid. The interconnected nature of our system means that grid operators need to be able to respond quickly at any time of the day. 

Wholesale electricity prices are -$60/MWh right now in Northern California. How close are we to a world where retail users can take advantage of negative prices by getting paid to use electricity? Are we even headed in that direction? Graph from Grid Status