Climate Analytics

NEW DATA shows how fast key countries need to scale wind and solar to limit warming to 1.5°C Across the 11 countries looked at, the technologies need to grow 5x by 2030 and 8x by 2035 to hit global climate goals. We find wind generates more power in the near term, but solar overtakes to supply half of electricity by 2050 - and wind a third. What’s clear, the technologies will be the backbone of the energy transition. Setting specific targets for both could be THE defining policy action for getting the world on track for 1.5°C. Key national results: 🇨🇳 China hit its 2030 goal of 1.2 TW wind and solar capacity 6 years early. At this rate of acceleration, it could reach the 4.5 TW needed by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. But with electricity demand set to soar and a lot of coal in the system, there's no room for complacency. 🇮🇳 India’s made great progress but needs international support to scale wind and solar 5x to 600 GW by 2030. Stronger global cooperation, including grants and cheaper loans to mobilise private finance, is needed for emerging economies to benefit equally from the renewables revolution. 🇺🇸 The US needs to grow wind and solar almost 5x by 2030, reaching 1400 GW to align with 1.5°C. The Inflation Reduction Act is making a difference, but the pace needs to pick up for the country to meet its own goal of carbon-free electricity by 2035. 🇩🇪 Germany’s wind and solar targets for 2030 are broadly in line with 1.5°C - delivering them must now be the focus. Setting phase out targets of 2030 for coal and 2035 for gas would help ensure the success of the energy transition in line with climate goals. Get the full analysis produced in partnership with NewClimate Institute:

"As the IPCC reports showed recently, every degree of warming will lead to an exponential rise of floods and the rainfall extreme across the country – and that's already happening in Nepal" – Manjeet Dhakal spoke to the Nepal Now: On the move podcast about recent flooding.

🗣️Mark your calendars!🗓️ 📣Join us for our upcoming virtual event, the Caribbean Loss & Damage Dialogue: Loss and Damage, Debt, and Climate Justice on 👉 Wednesday 23rd October 🕥 10 AM - 12:30 PM (AST) 💻Virtual Event 👋Led by Sasha Jattansingh, Loss & Damage Expert, Climate Analytics Caribbean, this interactive event will bring the audience and experts together to explore the critical linkages between loss and damage and fiscal debt in the Caribbean💡 👉Stay tuned for more information! #SavetheDate #LossandDamage #Debt #Caribbean

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #India is seeing a rapid rise in energy demand from both GDP growth (essential for a developing economy) & demand for cooling amid heatwaves. Despite substantial renewable energy capacity progress, energy demand isn’t decoupling from emissions. * #coal production & imports hit record high first half of 2024 in another year of record summer heat, despite renewables storage is becoming cost-effective compared to fossil fuels. * Coal power expansion not 1.5˚C aligned. * Non-fossil energy sources account for 46% of India's total installed capacity: this indicates the country is well on track to achieve its conditional NDC target of 50% non-fossil capacity ahead of schedule. * This progress suggests India could set a more ambitious NDC target with international support. Full report here ==> https://bit.ly/CAT_IND

Thank you #ClimateWeekNYC, it's been a wild ride! We've spoken on the dangers of deadly heat stress at the UN for the Lethal Humidity Global Council, shared new findings on the wind and solar rollout at the Global Renewables Alliance's #GRS24, talked about how to win the climate story at a UN verified roundtable, and last night, our North America office hosted a fantastic evening reception opened by Selwin Hart, special advisor to the UN Secretary General on climate change. It was a global effort, with colleagues from our offices in the Caribbean, South Asia and Europe joining our team in New York to push for stronger climate action in line with the 1.5°C warming limit. See you again next year!

As #ClimateWeekNYC wraps up, our tool the Climate risk dashboard shows that without stronger climate action, New York could face up to 34 days of high heat stress per year by 2050 and 56 days per year by 2100 - more than double the 24 days in 2020. If global emissions align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal, New Yorkers will see much more stable temperatures over the coming decades, with a slight peak around 2050 – benefiting those most impacted by heat stress, including outdoor workers, older people and children. Explore the Climate risk dashboard to understand urban heat stress risks in NYC and 130 cities worldwide under different climate action scenarios. 🌍🔥 https://lnkd.in/eRfuezux

China is leading the global renewables revolution, installing clean energy faster than any country in the world. But to drive significant emissions down after peaking, China will need to keep breaking records and accelerate wind and solar deployment. Combined, wind and solar generation needs to increase about six times by 2030 compared to 2022 levels (to around 7200 TWh) to outstrip demand growth and force out fossil power. This would see 1600 GW of wind and 2900 GW of solar capacity installed by 2030 (a total of 4500 GW). To align its updated NDC with the 1.5°C limit, China would need to install 2000 GW of wind and 4700 GW of solar capacity by 2035. While China has achieved world-beating growth in renewables, emissions will only come down if it also stops backing fossil power. Coal needs to be phased out by 2040. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eTX95PBv

To align with the goal of tripling renewables by 2030 and the 1.5°C limit, new analysis shows the US needs to increase wind capacity 3x and solar capacity 6x by 2030.   This can help deliver the US goal of a clean power sector by 2035. The Biden Administration’s carbon free electricity by 2035 target is aligned with 1.5ºC, but policies at federal and state levels are needed to drive the rollout at the scale and speed required. Wind and solar deployment will be key to achieving a clean power sector. The US needs around 1400 TWh of solar and 1600 TWh of wind by 2030, to meet the 1.5˚C benchmarks under this new analysis. The US wind and solar rollout is lagging behind – it will only reach 60% of the 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks under current policies. But the Inflation Reduction Act is beginning to bite and could help accelerate wind and solar deployment to align with 1.5ºC. Dig into the data 👉: https://lnkd.in/eau22pKN

We've done a special report on #COP29 host Azerbaijan's #climate action. The results are not good: after it weakened its #NDC by removing its 2030 #climate target altogether, & pledged to increase fossil fuel production (& with it, methane), we rate AZE's climate action as "Critically Insufficient" Full report here ==> bit.ly/CAT_AZE_special

"Our analysis from last year found that if wind and solar continue to accelerate at the pace that they have been, consistent with historical trends, then there's a 70 per cent chance that emissions would fall in 2024," Neil Grant told the ABC. "To really define a peak, we need to see emissions fall and continue to fall, driven by long-term structural change such as the rollout of renewables and the decline of fossil fuels."