Augment

Our latest Q3’24 Power 20 rankings place Anthropic at #3 and OpenAI in the #4 spot. Anthropic has been ahead for two quarters in a row. So how did Anthropic overtake OpenAI and maintain its lead? Our blended scoring methodology — based on six broad factors — offers a lens for comparing the two companies side-by-side. 🚴♂️ Activity We look at investor activity on Augment, but also activity growth (some names, inc. OpenAI, trade infrequently due to company restrictions or other factors). Anthropic activity was higher than OpenAI’s in both Q2’24 and Q3’24, and also increased QoQ in those two periods. Meanwhile, OpenAI saw activity declines in the same quarters. In Q1’24, Anthropic activity increased 5x over the total in Q4’23. This robust growth over 2024 YTD, more than activity differentials in any quarter, helped drive Anthropic up in the rankings. 📈 Price movement Price changes were a factor but were not the determining factor. In fact, OpenAI had higher estimated share-price growth in two of the last three quarters. Q3’24: Anthropic’s estimated share price was up 8.6%. That run-up was the highest among the top 5 names in the Power 20. OpenAI’s Augment Price was up 6.7%. Q2’24: OpenAI estimated per-share price growth accelerated to 15.7% (from 3% in Q1’24), higher than Anthropic at 11.5%. Q1’24: Anthropic saw a 40% decline in its per-share Augment Price, when OpenAI was up 3%. Anthropic and several other AI names saw big price declines in Q1 coming off sky-high peaks set during the year-end 2023 AI frenzy. This delta in price growth helped OpenAI reach #3 in the first quarter vs. Anthropic at #6. 📊 Spreads We look at the bid-ask spread for each name as measured by volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs). Lower spreads indicate healthier two-sided activity and price discovery. In Q1’24: OpenAI had a 7% spread, vs. Anthropic at 4%. Anthropic also did better in Q2’24, while OpenAI had the narrower spreads in Q1’24. 💵 Revenue and revenue growth We weigh revenue growth estimates higher than revenue estimates, to avoid biasing the rankings toward pre-IPO names that have had more years to build revenue. Anthropic grew revenue an estimated 1,400% in 2023. OpenAI was no slouch, growing an estimated 900% that year. 📅 Past performance Our rankings weigh past quarters’ performance and are not a snapshot of what might have happened in a single three-month interval. Anthropic isn’t ranking higher than OpenAI across all relevant metrics. Anthropic ranks higher thanks to accelerating improvement in several heavily weighted score components over the course of the year, especially revenue growth history and activity increases.

🤖 The data in our Q3’24 Power 20 report hits you over the head with a single story: the rise of AI. 😇 First, let’s look at the number of “pure-play” AI companies in the Power 20 (strictly defined as companies that are AI-native and solely focused on developing AI-centric products) in recent quarters:   Q1’24: 3 names in the Power 20 rankings were AI companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Scale AI  Q2’24: 4 names, adding Cerebras  Q3’24: 5 names, adding Groq and Cerebras 📊 The rankings are decided by a blended scoring methodology that includes price changes, price spreads, as well as platform bid-ask and trade activity. But also: revenue and revenue-growth estimates, which are more closely tethered to company fundamentals. So we can’t just chalk it up to AI hype and revved up market sentiment. 📈 Further, we also see an acceleration in AI company price growth and a larger weight in activity. Here are the numbers. Average price growth of AI companies in Power 20: - Q2'24: 6.76% - Q3'24: 12.7% AI companies’ share of Power 20 activity: - Q2'24: 25.4% - Q3'24: 31.9% 💰 Dwelling on price for a minute, the AI companies in the Power 20 averaged $30.2B in estimated market cap in the quarter (and value growth on par with share-price growth). The growing weight of AI names also holds if we look at a much broader cohort: the most-active names on the Augment Platform. In this cohort we include only companies that saw activity above a certain threshold in each quarter, so as to capture the 75 to 100 most-active names (and exclude the long-tail of companies with negligible activity). 🦾 Among most-active companies in the last three report datasets, AI companies accounted for this percent of activity: - Q1'24: 12% - Q2'24: 22% - Q3'24: 24% What’s more, the proportion of AI names making it to the ranks of the most active also increased QoQ:  - Q1'24: 11% of the most-active names were in AI - Q2'24: 13.9% - Q3'24: 15.6% The AI names included in the most-active cohort in Q3’24 include: 🔥 The 5 Power 20 names in the quarter: (#3) Anthropic, (#4) OpenAI, (#15) Scale AI, (#17) Cerebras Systems, and (#20) Groq Up-and-coming names in Q3’24: SambaNova Systems, Glean, and Lambda   Several names with activity levels nearing those seen by Power 20 companies or “Up and Coming Companies”, but that still have not broken in: e.g. CoreWeave and Cohere These statistics are even more notable given our narrow definition of what counts as “AI” in these rankings, including only pure-play AI.

🤖 The data in our Q3’24 Power 20 report hits you over the head with a single story: the rise of AI. 📜 Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eyw2mRcE 📊 AI is Eating the Private Markets: https://lnkd.in/eJP6EgY2

What names should I be tracking in the private markets? It’s a question we hear a lot at Augment, and that’s no surprise. As secondary market activity grows, and companies stay private longer, knowing the top pre-IPO names is becoming essential for technology investors, regardless of where they sit. Our Power 20 report and rankings offer a unique, data-driven view. The Power 20 is different from other private market indices and rankings because it uses a wider lens. The methodology goes beyond price signals and activity to encompass revenue and revenue-growth estimates for the top companies. That means the rankings include a dimension more closely tethered to company fundamentals. The result is a blended ranking that delivers a comprehensive, balanced view of the private markets — and a more representative slice of the top pre-IPO names. This is our 3rd Power 20 report. Over that time the Power 20 companies have driven steady value creation. At the end of Q3’24, they accounted for an aggregate $797B in estimated market cap (up roughly 10% in the quarter). Given their outsized economic impact and influence in key industries including AI, defense, and financial services, the Power 20 should be as closely followed as some of the top companies in the public markets. Our rankings are a small step in that direction.  Stay tuned for more analysis on all the key trends, including the OpenAI vs. Anthropic rivalry, increasing diversification in pre-IPO activity, and the rise of AI as seen through the private markets.

🚀 Welcome Jane Da Silva to Augment! She is a private markets veteran with 12 years of experience at SharesPost (Acquired by Forge Global) continuing at Forge post-merger. Very excited to add an expert in transactional operations and compliance to the team to support our growth. 🤝 Dream team re-unite! Jane Adam Geno

Excited to bring on Robert Ruelas as Head of Finance! He has finance and fintech experience all over the board: Figure, EarnIn, LendingClub, Accenture and now wrapping up a law degree from Northwestern University. We're tightening the ship and Robert is keeping us on point.

Welcome Jacobo Sternberg to Augment! He's a repeat startup guy and the 3rd Berkeley EECS grad on the team. He knows what a fast pace looks like and has built/grown early products at CloudKitchens and Rubrik. Excited for him to make our user experience even better!

👨🏻 Excited to welcome Geno Zawrotny to Augment as Chief Revenue Officer! Geno was a pioneer of the private company secondary market at SharesPost (Acquired by Forge Global) in 2012. That’s where he met our very own Adam Crawley back in the day… 2 of the all-time top producers are back together, reigniting the Dream Team. 📈 Geno helped take SharesPost from a scrappy team of 10 people to an acquisition by Forge and a $2B IPO on the NYSE. He brings 2 decades of expertise in alternatives, public equities, crypto, portfolio management, and deal sourcing. Plus he used to race Supercross against Travis Pastrana so... kind of badass. ⏱️ In an industry that is painfully slow and manual, we’re lighting it up and innovating on technology. Just a matter of time… 🔥🛠️

Introducing the Power 20!

Augment and co-founder Noel Moldvai quoted in The New York Times, speaking to the democratization of investing into late-stage private companies.