What’s the best way to analyze market trends?

É preciso ajustar também a sensibilidade humana para capturar sinais que podem dar direção a tendências, vindas de padrões mutantes de comportamento, variáveis de decisões, e o impacto de interações humanas. Apesar de certo grau de subjetividade, e uma imaterialidade própria dos padrões comportamentais, eles também moldam novos futuros, e adicionam essa sensibilidade na equação, que muitas vezes pode redefinir (ou ajustar) a bússola de tendências vindas puramente dos dados e IA.

Utilizar ferramentas de big data e IA para análise de tendências é uma abordagem transformadora. Agregando diversos relatórios de tendências de grandes empresas de consultoria, algoritmos de IA podem agrupar imensas quantidades de dados para revelar insights mais profundos. Este método supera análises tradicionais ao identificar padrões e correlações que podem não ser evidentes por meio de escrutínio manual. Ferramentas de IA facilitam o acompanhamento de tendências em tempo real, garantindo que os insights sejam atuais e prospectivos. A integração da IA na análise de tendências não apenas aprimora a tomada de decisão, mas também proporciona uma vantagem competitiva ao prever movimentos futuros do mercado com maior precisão.

The first step is clearly defining the market or sector I'm focusing on. This involves delineating the boundaries of the market, including the types of products or services, the customer base, geographic regions, and the competitive landscape. A well-defined market scope provides a focused lens for trend analysis.

Utilizing big data and AI tools for trend analysis is a transformative approach. By aggregating diverse trend reports from large consulting firms, AI algorithms can collate immense amounts of data to reveal deeper insights. This method outperforms traditional analyses by identifying patterns and correlations that may not be evident through manual scrutiny. AI tools make it easy to track trends in real-time, ensuring that insights are current and forward-looking. Integrating AI into trend analysis not only enhances decision-making but also provides a competitive advantage by predicting future market movements with greater accuracy.

Defining your market is extremely important. Many startups overstate the true market they are addressing. It's the difference between TAM and SOM. (TAM, SAM, and SOM are acronyms for three metrics to describe the market your organization operates in — Total Addressable Market, Serviceable Addressable Market, and Serviceable Obtainable Market.) Just because someone "could" be a customer it is important to really hone in on what part of the market you are addressing, what percentage your competition currently holds and their thesis for growth. Many market incumbents are not just going to roll over so why is your product/service going to replace - what is the barrier/cost to switch. All this needs to be factored in the "obtainable" discussion.

Conducting your own research using various sources of information, such as industry reports, news articles, academic papers, podcasts, blogs, etc. This can help you gain insights from different perspectives, identify emerging opportunities and challenges, and stay updated on the latest developments and innovations. Applying quantitative and qualitative methods to analyse data and generate insights, such as statistical analysis, regression models, scenario planning, SWOT analysis, Porter’s five forces, etc. This can help you test hypotheses, measure performance, evaluate risks and returns, and formulate strategies.

The goal with analyzing market trends is to use the present to see the future, but it's just as important to look at the past. As a Deep Tech investor, there has been hype around AI. The early use cases are exciting, but what areas should I invest in to see future returns. Relearning the history of the transistor has helped me get a better grasp on this technological advancement. "[In 2021], the chip industry produced more transistors than the combined quantity of all good produced by all other companies, in all other industries, in all human history." TSMC should be far and away the most valuable company in the world, but it's not. (I will be posting a full article on why and how this relates to AI in the coming weeks, follow me for more).

Glean insights from skilled professionals who dedicate themselves to this activity. I’m thinking particularly of analyst reports produced by brokerage houses and investment firms. They advise institutional buyers on shifts and trends that drive significant investment. Studying their insights short cut the work that a business owner (or a retail investor) needs to do. Analysts who get it wrong don’t survive very long. Of course, as with all things, one must examine reports for bias or blind spots, but it can provide a powerful jump start in understanding how current dynamics will drive future behavior.

É preciso ter uma mescla entre volume e profundidade. Não tem como ficar acompanhando tudo a toda hora. Você precisa saber o momento de levantar o máximo de informações que conseguir e depois aprofundar para aquilo que faz mais sentido. Mesclar o zoom-in com zoom-out. Os dados quanti no começo são ótimos para priorizar as oportunidades. E os qualis para aprofundar nessas oportunidades mais revelantes, ainda mais hoje em dia com tantos vídeos e podcasts disponíveis, você consegue aprofundar pegar participação de CEOs ou founders de diversas empresas e setores interessantes.

With any ethical and correct method you can collect information because this data will cause your success and prevent your failure and at least your small failure. The main of every industry, survey and field research from informed people, collecting and analyzing and categorizing information with the help of artificial intelligence and..., social networks. After collecting information, it is time to analyze this information, the more accurate it is, the better the result will be.

You don't need sofisticated tools. You need simple tools, filled with reliable information. And than you need a simple way to visualize and share it with your team, to find insights and build the assumptions about the possible market scenarios! The market is a not-controled variable. You don't guess about it. You build posible scenarios and prepare to react to each one of them.

Frameworks sollen helfen einen umfassenden Überblick über das Marktumfeld zu bekommen und „blinde Flecken“ verhindern. Insofern ist es wichtig, die Frameworks so zu wählen, dass der Möglichkeitenraum vollständig beleuchtet wird.

Analyzing the obtained data and creating a scenario is a very positive way to continue the process and make quick and appropriate decisions in critical and difficult situations because you are already familiar with all the scenarios. The tool may help in the market, but in order to get the right result, it should always act like an electronic closed system that has feedback from the output to the input and adjusts other parameters by using it and achieves the best efficiency and structure because The market is always changing and an uncontrollable parameter and it will be very difficult to predict unless you have always prepared the best answer with different scenarios.

Ask people with more experience and expertise thank you how they think about their analyses and frameworks. Most people with more experience than you will have a perspective or mental model you can adopt in some form.

Several frameworks are commonly used for market analysis, including PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis, Porter's Five Forces, market segmentation, BCG Matrix, Ansoff Matrix, value chain analysis, and market opportunity analysis. While each framework has its strengths, Porter's Five Forces is often regarded as one of the best frameworks for market analysis because it provides a comprehensive assessment of competitive dynamics within an industry, including threats from new entrants, bargaining power of buyers and suppliers, threat of substitutes, and competitive rivalry.

Market trends come and go. Crypto today is not as trending as crypto last week. Constantly read the news and update your thoughts on a trend. If you still think something is trending because of a 1-week old article, you're up for a surprise.

Stress test assumptions used in valuation modeling and projections. Solicit feedback from startup founders and advisors on investment thesis and capabilities. Continuously track financing announcements and macro trends and develop indicators to monitor emerging technologies. Finally, build modeling scenarios mapping future state use cases

To validate and update market analysis, verify data accuracy, seek external validation, conduct additional research, monitor trends, establish feedback loops, schedule regular updates, benchmark against industry standards, and treat the process as iterative to ensure accuracy and relevance. Also seeking an advice from experts will help a lot.

One needs to go in with a hypothesis based on your best judgement of the data, news. Once supported with data, this is your current best case outcome expected in the coming years. However, you need to constantly monitor how things are moving. If I see new data, I will change my mind. Similarly, new trends will make me change my assumptions and outcomes.

Market trends are transitory and the important thing is that you are ready for any trend and try to get the best returns for yourself. In order to check the validity of some surveys and studies, previous successful samples should be checked and compared with your own analysis. Validation of most of our studies and decisions will be determined more during implementation, which is the best way, as mentioned in the previous sections, to create scenarios and check all conditions.

While it is important to keep focus on the market you are operating in and on direct competitors, most of the changes are happening cross-boarder. With a butterfly effect, a change in a different field might lead to larger changes in yours. Of course it is impossible to know everything but developing a habit of following macroeconomic news not necessarily related to your field directly, might give insights and ideas for the future change. Same goes to competitors: keeping an eye on the newest developments in the fields and geographies far from yours, can help a) getting fresh ideas for your own industry, so that b) your company has a chance to become a trendsetter, rather than trend follower.

It's important to also consider the macroeconomic environment and global trends that could impact the market. Additionally, keeping an eye on emerging technologies and startups can provide early indicators of potential shifts. Networking with industry experts and participating in relevant conferences and workshops are also valuable for gaining deeper insights.

Predict future trends and make informed decisions Based on your analysis, estimate how the market might evolve and what future trends might emerge. Weigh the implications of these trends on your business or investment decisions. Use your insights to revise your plans, launch new initiatives, or make strategic adjustments to stay ahead of the curve.

It is just like traders do. You don't guess about the market trends. No one has a crystal ball. The best approach is to identify possible scenarios and prepare strategies for each one of them. The faster you can react in each scenario, the greater your chances of success!

In the age of big data, leveraging AI tools for trend analysis offers a transformative approach. By aggregating various trend reports from leading consulting firms and entities, AI algorithms can cluster vast amounts of data to unveil deeper insights. This method surpasses traditional analysis by identifying patterns and correlations that might not be evident through manual scrutiny. AI tools facilitate real-time trend tracking, ensuring insights are both current and forward-looking. This integration of AI in market trend analysis not only enhances decision-making but also provides a competitive edge by predicting future market movements with greater accuracy.