What are some of the common pitfalls and mistakes to avoid when doing scenario planning?

- No trabajar en equipo para obtener una visibilidad 360. Evitando así el considerar que su departamento es el único que importa y que se tiene conocimiento total de la situación. - Comunicación Efectiva. No aplicarla para entender cada uno de los escenarios del equipo clave y las propuestas. Así como no ser directo y claro al momento de exponer la situación o problema. - No involucrar a todas las personas clave para el asunto específico. - No analizar los riesgos reales de la estrategia, pensando únicamente en los beneficios económicos posibles.

Scenarios are potential outcomes, not set in stone. A diverse group of participants thinking creatively can provide a wide set of potential pathways, which can then be narrowed down to a few that are most meaningful based on a combination of likelihood and impact to the organization. Helps to have a good facilitator!

Common pitfalls in scenario planning include: Narrow Focus: Limiting scenarios to overly optimistic or pessimistic outcomes instead of diverse possibilities. Overlooking Uncertainty: Ignoring uncertainties and assuming stability can lead to unrealistic scenarios. Lack of Stakeholder Involvement: Excluding key stakeholders reduces the depth and relevance of scenarios. Rigid Thinking: Treating scenarios as predictions rather than explorative exercises can stifle creativity. Failure to Act: Not integrating scenario insights into decision-making renders the exercise ineffective.

Start your scenario planning process by making it clear that this activity is not an attempt to predict the future but rather an effort to think through how the organization may respond should specific or analogous events arise. This process is frequently criticized for failing to predict an exact future. That was never the intent. Dissolve this criticism by clarifying the ways the scenario planning thought process will provide a head start in responding to or shaping alternative futures as well as a set of signals to monitor. Also clarify that you are not looking for a bad, moderate, and good set of scenarios – avoiding a three-scenario model will help accomplish this.

From my experience, while clarifying purpose and scope is vital, a common pitfall in scenario planning is relying too much on predictability and resisting imaginative or uncomfortable scenarios. After 30 years of personal and professional development, I've learned that significant threats and opportunities often arise unexpectedly. Encourage divergent thinking and consider a wide array of potential futures, challenging current assumptions and strategies. Think outside the box and beyond industry norms. This creative approach prepares for unpredictability, fostering resilience and innovation. Scenario planning isn't just about mitigating risks; it's about envisioning an expansive and nuanced future.

It can stimulate your imagination, creativity, and curiosity, and help you discover new possibilities and opportunities for the future. However, some organizations do not have fun with scenario planning, and treat it as a boring or tedious task, rather than an exciting and enjoyable adventure

Common pitfalls in scenario planning include: 1. Overcomplicating Scenarios: Creating too many scenarios can overwhelm and dilute focus. 2. Ignoring Key Variables: Failing to consider critical factors or trends can lead to incomplete plans. 3. Lack of Data: Relying on assumptions instead of data can skew results. 4. Neglecting Flexibility: Rigid plans that don’t adapt to changing conditions can become obsolete. 5. Poor Communication: Inadequate sharing of scenarios with stakeholders can lead to misalignment and ineffective strategies.

Acrescento que podemos atribuir pelo menos duas dimensões na definição da elaboração do cenário: - A primeira é o contexto da aplicação que podemos associar a urgência, metaforicamente servirá para quem já decolou o avião ou para quem está decidindo onde e se vai. Os tempos de analise e assertividade necessárias são muito distintos e implicam em dados, analises e margem de risco distintas. - O segundo está no contexto do impacto que podemos associar a gravidade, ou seja, o que vai ocorrer se o cenário estimado estiver errado ou certo, existe possibilidade de correção/arrependimento e qual o seu custo. A combinação dessas duas dimensões, cria quatro quadrantes que explicitam a forma de engajamento e o tipo analises necessárias.

Strategic planning often starts with some trigger be it a new opportunity or some problem that has arisen. Once that trigger has happened a goal needs to be created and a problem framed. This is in my opinion one of the most important aspects of strategy. I have on several occasions seen teams work to solve symptoms of a problem unaware that they are ignoring the root problem. This is garbage in garbage out. Take the time identify the actual problem and then formulate a clear goal. Don't make assumptions and don't have one person identify it. When possible have a team individually frame the problem and propose a goal before meeting as a team to avoid people being influenced by other team members or being reluctant to speak up.

The common challenges in scenario planning are: 1) Having sufficient knowledge of the subject matter to define at least three scenarios, criteria, and weights. 2) Remaining emotionally detached to avoid manipulating the tool to recommend a preconceived choice, even subconsciously. 3) Finding other knowledgeable and experienced individuals to participate in the process. 4) Allowing them to contribute their perspectives on alternatives, criteria, and weights. 5) Averaging the inputs from all participants and analyzing the results together with the participants. 6) Communicate what has been learn

1. Stay away for complex and tehnical language 2. Create scenarios in participatory settings 3. Be open for disrupting them by an external panel

One of the most common mistakes is assuming that the future will simply be a linear progression from the past and present. This approach fails to account for the possibility of disruptive changes and can lead to scenarios that are not sufficiently diverse or challenging.

In my experience, avoiding linear extrapolation is crucial. Another pitfall is not effectively integrating scenario planning insights into strategic decision-making. Over 30 years of guiding teams, I've seen that well-crafted scenarios fail if not understood or used. Involve stakeholders in scenario creation and present outcomes in a clear, actionable manner. Avoid jargon and complex models. Focus on how scenarios impact goals and suggest appropriate actions. Regularly revisit and revise scenarios as part of a strategic conversation. Make scenario planning a living process that aligns with objectives.

This is where systems thinking and considering ripple effects come into play. Taking a bird's eye's view and uncovering what otherwise may remain hidden. Daring to pair two seemingly unrelated trends and assumptions and see where it might lead to.

Often, scenario planning focuses too heavily on external factors and technological trends, neglecting the human element. Factors such as cultural shifts, consumer behavior changes, and workforce dynamics can have a profound impact on the future landscape.

Scenario planning in personal development and public speaking often involves a common mistake of excessive focus on predicting and controlling the future. While planning for different scenarios is crucial, it's important to strike a balance between preparedness and adaptability. Instead of fixating on detailed scenarios, prioritizing core skills like resilience, adaptability, and emotional intelligence fosters a mindset prepared for various scenarios without the anxiety of trying to control every aspect of the future.

Yes, scenarios have to be lived in order to develop a full understanding of the impact. Futurists who ran a future focused scenario a about a global pandemic caused by a respiratory virus 10 years before the COVID pandemic were prepared for the resistance to wearing face masks and the risks people would take to continue to observe social rituals important to them like weddings, funerals, attending religious services etc. Culture and personal values influence how you live, work and consume so it’s important to understand how the scenario integrates into all aspects of life. #HybridRemoteExcellence #HybridRemoteFuturist #ScenarioPlanning #NolaSimon

Humans evolved to survive, with that many biases became innate in our species. The example often heard is when our ancestors heard a rustling in the bushes and assumed it was a tiger, they ran and survived regardless of whether is was a tiger or not. Those who assumed it wasn't a tiger were less likely to contribute to the gene pool. That is why we are pattern seeking creatures largely out of satisficing behavior. We are not computers and our desire to find patterns often leads us astray. Bias reduction processes are required to overcome this. An understanding of logic, reason, fallacious thinking and common biases will help you create a team that can recognize and work to avoid these problems because everyone is susceptible to them.

Another frequent oversight is the failure to consider how scenarios will be implemented. Without a clear plan for action and adaptation, even the most well-crafted scenarios can become academic exercises rather than practical tools for strategic decision-making.

Implementation is key to execution, please don't let it completely constrain how you evaluate potential scenarios. It's amazing what people and organizations can achieve when they have the will and motivation.

The best plans clearly show the goal and ways for anyone to quickly see how close they are to that goal. Doesn't have to be complicated but should be clear and transparent. The best plan implementers are regularly monitoring their progress and adjusting their approach based on the realities on the ground.

Scenario planning should not be a one time action, but an approach to planning. Scenarios are not a prediction, but a set of possibilities. Once you choose a scenario and begin to make decisions based on it, you should define checking points and update it from time to time, adding new information that may not have been available in previous versions. New variables and scenarios may emerge, that's when you learn and improve not only the scenarios, but also the strategy itself.

Scenario planning is quite a sensitive one already. You can balance with the fun part when doing it. Creativity might meet strategies and planning in your scenario planning adventure. Having fun can help relax the brain and body, rejuvenate on different levels. Which is good for the work. All work deserve some fun time.

Scenario planning is a lot of hard work. However, if you aren't having fun, you're doing it wrong. Useful scenarios of the future inherently require imagination, a suspension of biases and disbeliefs, and a level of play. Whether you are working on a multitude of scenarios, a typical 2x2 matrix, or even a high, medium, and low forecast; you still need to ask: what if? Otherwise, there is no answer to: so what? Scenarios need to explain the implications of both present and future actions. Many clients think such implications are obvious until they are met with the reality of a financial crisis, a pandemic, a disruptive innovation, etc. So, imagining these implications requires participants to have fun and play with ideas.

Well-executed scenario planning can be exceptionally valuable, but it rarely is. Three important principles: - Know HOW you will use the scenarios and process before you start. Many do scenario projects because they think they should, and don't know how to convert their scenarios to better strategic decisions. - Do NOT choose good/ neutral/ bad scenarios. Inexperienced executives and consultants naturally do this, creating a description of expectations (neutral), and what they do and don't want to happen. This doesn't lead to exploring unanticipated developments. - The primary objective should be STRETCHING THINKING. Creating a document with a set of scenarios is next to useless. Design so executives think better and more broadly.

Many people find it hard to have fun when there are several senior levels taking part. So there can be value in presenting a first exercise as fun and non-linear: then presenting the "real" one as also fun and non-linear with the addition of being able to develop a real vision of the future.

Scenario planning is a muscle that every organization should exercise. Provoking people to think ahead and envision new possibilities and outcomes may be a great way to develop systemic vision, strategic thinking, teamwork, risk management and a lot of hard and soft skills. Beyond that: it may be used to foster adaptability and innovation.

In real life, scenarios/circumstances (including characteristics) changes often and are dynamic. Hence, scenario planning needs to be looked strategically and not considered as a one time exercise or confined with known or obvious conditions, which defies the purpose. In space exploration context, Chandrayaan objective is to soft land a rover in moon and conduct study to understand composition of moon. This requires multi-faceted considerations and simulations (not just conducive scenarios). Similar analogy need to be applied to uncover or prepare for the unforeseen scenarios. Hence, creativity is the genesis of scenario planning

Adoptar una mentalidad rígida y resistente al cambio puede hacer que los planes de escenarios sean obsoletos rápidamente en un entorno dinámico. Es esencial mantener la flexibilidad y estar dispuesto a ajustar los planes según sea necesario a medida que evolucionan las circunstancias.