How can you explore decision outcomes with scenario analysis?

I like to think of scenarios as unfinished paintings. When thinking about how to fill in the rest of a canvas, there are an infinite number of possibilities from a multitude of different perspectives. There is no "right way" to paint a painting, but depending on who it's for and what the desired outcome is, it might help you determine what brush to pick up and what color to choose (: 🎨🧑🎨

By evaluating the Why of each task will help you set the importance of each one. Asking you Why are you doing this task and how will contribute to your goals, mission and vision will define if is align or waste of time or priority.

Instead of impulsively making decisions, scenario analysis lets you visualize the outcome of each potential action you make. For example: having a kid. How could this change your life? Your job? The relationships with those around you? What would life look like if you waited 5 years? How about your finances? Your partner?... etc. For small or large decisions, it can still be helpful to see as far into the horizon as you can -- sometimes you may see something in a way you didn't before, allowing for further clarity.

It can be helpful to conduct scenario analysis on paper. By writing out the algorithmic-like set of factors in the equation, you can map out the entire situation, allowing you to visualize and see the connections in a way you may not have been able to before.

Think of this like running an experiment in a lab. How can you leave as little room for error and outside variables as possible? How can you bring others into the equation to help cover any blind spots, biases, and or potential mistakes? Humans make each other better - this is effective scenario analysis at its best.

@MaxReisinger is absolutely right. Our brains multitask, running conscious and subconscious processes in parallel. While we’re focused on one thing, part of our brain is still working on other issues. Directly thinking about a problem doesn’t always help; often, a distraction or sleep brings a fresh perspective. During certain sleep phases, our brain connects the dots from our day, leading to insights when we wake up. In essence, our brain keeps chipping away even when we’re not actively trying, resulting in surprise solutions during everyday moments or after rest. Decision tools such as scenarios and choice architecture are brilliant for structuring judgements and choices…but getting away from it all might unlock the flash of inspiration.

While certain decision-making frameworks are helpful from a rational standpoint. Try to also carve out time to be bored, to go outside, or to meditate. Our minds have unconscious cognition, which is a really powerful tool that we forget to have access to. Create space for the spontaneous epiphany moments to happen! Best of luck (: