How do you use past projects to manage portfolio risks?

1 Analyze past project data

The first step to use past projects to manage portfolio risks is to collect and analyze the data from previous projects that are similar or relevant to your current portfolio. This can include information such as project objectives, scope, schedule, cost, quality, risks, issues, lessons learned, and stakeholder feedback. You can use various tools and techniques to analyze the data, such as historical analysis, trend analysis, benchmarking, and variance analysis. The goal is to identify the patterns, trends, gaps, and best practices that can help you assess the current and future risks of your portfolio.

2 Identify portfolio risk sources

The next step is to identify the sources of risk that may affect your portfolio. These can be internal or external, positive or negative, and related to different aspects of your portfolio, such as strategy, governance, resources, dependencies, integration, and alignment. You can use past project data to help you identify the risk sources that have occurred or may occur in your portfolio. For example, you can review the risk registers, issue logs, and change requests from past projects to see what types of risks have impacted the projects and how they were managed. You can also use techniques such as brainstorming, SWOT analysis, and PESTLE analysis to identify the potential risk sources that may arise from the environment, market, industry, or stakeholders.

3 Assess portfolio risk impact and probability

The third step is to assess the impact and probability of the risks that may affect your portfolio. The impact is the degree of positive or negative effect that a risk may have on your portfolio objectives, while the probability is the likelihood of a risk occurring. You can use past project data to help you assess the impact and probability of the risks by using quantitative or qualitative methods. For example, you can use historical data to calculate the expected value, standard deviation, or confidence level of the risks, or you can use expert judgment, rating scales, or scoring models to estimate the impact and probability of the risks. The result is a risk matrix that shows the severity and priority of the risks.

4 Plan portfolio risk responses

The fourth step is to plan the appropriate responses for the risks that may affect your portfolio. The responses can be proactive or reactive, and they can aim to avoid, reduce, transfer, share, exploit, enhance, or accept the risks. You can use past project data to help you plan the risk responses by using lessons learned, best practices, and feedback from previous projects. For example, you can use past project data to determine the cost-benefit analysis, feasibility, and effectiveness of the risk responses, or you can use past project data to identify the triggers, indicators, and contingency plans for the risks.

5 Monitor and control portfolio risks

The fifth step is to monitor and control the risks that may affect your portfolio. This involves tracking the status, performance, and changes of the risks and the risk responses, and taking corrective actions if needed. You can use past project data to help you monitor and control the risks by using metrics, reports, dashboards, and audits from previous projects. For example, you can use past project data to measure the variance, deviation, or gap between the planned and actual results of the risks and the risk responses, or you can use past project data to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of the risk management process.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?