Natural gas

Natural gas exports
U.S. natural gas exports, particularly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are the primary driver of growth in U.S. natural gas demand in our forecast. Total natural gas demand is made up of domestic consumption from the residential, commercial, industrial, and electric power sectors as well as natural gas exports as LNG and by pipeline. We expect U.S. LNG exports to average 12.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 and 13.8 Bcf/d in 2025, with domestic consumption of natural gas falling by about 1 Bcf/d compared with this year.

Because there is ample demand for U.S. LNG in the international market, changes in our U.S. LNG export forecast depend more on the start-up timing of export facilities rather than global market conditions. The expected start-up of Golden Pass LNG has moved from 4Q25 to 2H26. We assume Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 will fully ramp up LNG production in 2H27 rather than by the middle of 2025. Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, along with Plaquemines LNG, are in the commissioning phase to start LNG export operations. We expect that each of these facilities will begin exporting LNG by the end of 2024.

Plaquemines LNG is a greenfield facility located in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. Plaquemines LNG is being developed in two phases. Each of the two phases consists of nine blocks, each containing two liquefaction units called trains. LNG production capacity of each phase is 1.3 Bcf/d nominal or almost 1.6 Bcf/d peak. We assume the start of LNG exports from Plaquemines LNG by December 2024 and the full ramp up of all blocks of Phase 1 by spring 2025. We assume the start of LNG exports from Phase 2 by the end of 2025.

Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 is an expansion of the existing Corpus Christi LNG export terminal located in San Patricio County, Texas. The expansion facility consists of seven trains with a combined nominal capacity of 1.3 Bcf/d and peak capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d. We expect the start of LNG exports from this facility by December 2024. We assume that Corpus Christi Stage 3 will place three of its mid-scale liquefaction trains in service by the end of 2025.

Natural gas prices
Natural gas prices rose in September as natural gas production fell slightly from August. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $2.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September, 15% higher than the August average of $1.98/MMBtu. The decline in production was partly due to an 11% drop in in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) natural gas production. About 53% of GOM production capacity was taken off-line because of Hurricane Francine, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast on September 11. GOM production capacity was unable to return to full capacity because Category 4 Hurricane Helene went through a nearby area two weeks later, extensively disrupting energy systems.

We expect the Henry Hub price will rise to average nearly $2.80/MMBtu in 4Q24 and around $3.10/MMBtu in 2025. We expect prices to rise in 2025 as LNG exports increase while domestic consumption and production remain relatively flat. We forecast U.S. consumption of natural gas to average 89 Bcf/d in 2025, which is about the same as our forecast for consumption in 2024. However, we expect that LNG exports will rise by nearly 2 Bcf/d next year with continued strong international demand as export capacity expands.