Standard Deviations
Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
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Narrado por:
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Tim Andres Pabon
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De:
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Gary Smith
Acerca de esta escucha
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter "D" are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these "facts" have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics.
As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.
With the breakout success of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.
©2015 Gary Smith (P)2016 Gildan Media LLCLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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It used to be that to diagnose an illness, interpret legal documents, analyze foreign policy, or write a newspaper article you needed a human being with specific skills - and maybe an advanced degree or two. These days, high-level tasks are increasingly being handled by algorithms that can do precise work not only with speed but also with nuance. These "bots" started with human programming and logic, but now their reach extends beyond what their creators ever expected.
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good start, book runs out of sustenace
- De RealTruth en 02-15-13
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- De: Justin Fox
- Narrado por: Alan Sklar
- Duración: 13 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- De D. Martin en 06-29-12
De: Justin Fox
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Pricing the Future
- Finance, Physics, and the 300-Year Journey to the Black-Scholes Equation
- De: George Szpiro
- Narrado por: Brian Troxell
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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Financial economist George G. Szpiro here tells the fascinating stories of the pioneers of mathematical finance who conducted the search for the elusive options pricing formula. From the broker's assistant who published the first mathematical explanation of financial markets to Albert Einstein and other scientists, Pricing the Future retraces the historical and intellectual developments that ultimately led to the widespread use of mathematical models to drive investment strategies on Wall Street.
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Petty details detract from the topic
- De Philo en 04-08-12
De: George Szpiro
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- De: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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Historia
Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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The Science of Fear
- Why We Fear the Things We Should Not - and Put Ourselves in Great Danger
- De: Daniel Gardner
- Narrado por: Scott Peterson
- Duración: 12 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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From terror attacks to the War on Terror, bursting real-estate bubbles to crystal meth epidemics, sexual predators to poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. And yet, we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Irrational fear is running amok, and often with tragic results. In the months after 9/11, when people decided to drive instead of fly - believing they were avoiding risk - road deaths rose by 1,595. Those lives were lost to fear.
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A rational assessment of the world we live in
- De K Head en 08-29-09
De: Daniel Gardner
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- De: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrado por: Matthew Dudley
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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Completely misleading title
- De Motorjaw en 01-28-15
De: Barry J. Nalebuff, y otros
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The Rational Animal
- How Evolution Made Us Smarter Than We Think
- De: Douglas T. Kenrick, Vladas Griskevicius
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 8 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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Why do three out of four professional football players go bankrupt? How can illiterate jungle dwellers pass a test that tricks Harvard philosophers? And why do billionaires work so hard - only to give their hard-earned money away? When it comes to making decisions, the classic view is that humans are eminently rational. But growing evidence suggests instead that our choices are often irrational, biased, and occasionally even moronic. Which view is right - or is there another possibility?
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Good book
- De Justin en 02-17-17
De: Douglas T. Kenrick, y otros
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 7 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- De Ian en 11-24-18
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- De: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrado por: Laural Merlington
- Duración: 11 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- De: Gary Klein
- Narrado por: Christopher Lane
- Duración: 9 h
- Versión completa
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Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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Not enough actionable ideas
- De Blair en 02-24-15
De: Gary Klein
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The Mind of the Market
- Compassionate Apes, Competitive Humans and Other Tales from Evolutionary Economics
- De: Michael Shermer
- Narrado por: Michael Shermer
- Duración: 5 h y 26 m
- Versión resumida
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The Mind of the Market will change the way we think about the economics of everyday life. Drawing on research from neuroeconomics, Michael Shermer explores what brain scans reveal about bargaining, snap purchases, and how trust is established in business. Utilizing experiments in behavioral economics, Shermer shows why people hang on to losing stocks and failing companies, why business negotiations often disintegrate into emotional tit-for-tat disputes, and why money does not make us happy.
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Good ideas overshadowed by obnoxious polemics
- De Philo en 09-15-13
De: Michael Shermer
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Charlie Munger
- The Complete Investor
- De: Tren Griffin
- Narrado por: Fred Stella
- Duración: 6 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of "elementary, worldly wisdom" - a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management - allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment.
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Good, but... one major annoyance
- De Joseph R. Compton en 02-26-16
De: Tren Griffin
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What the Luck?
- The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
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Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow helped listeners identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives.
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The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
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We live in an incredible period in history. The computer revolution may be even more life-changing than the Industrial Revolution. We can do things with computers that could never be done before, and computers can do things for us that could never be done before. But our love of computers should not cloud our thinking about their limitations. The AI Delusion explains why we should not be intimidated into thinking that computers are infallible, that data-mining is knowledge discovery, and that black boxes should be trusted.
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The non-obvious obvious
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Effective Research Methods for Any Project
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We rely on effective research in many areas of life, and at times our lives even depend on it. But what is it that makes research effective? Any good research rests upon, above all else, method. In these 24 dynamic lectures, you’ll discover the remarkable procedures and techniques that make research such a powerful tool. This brilliantly conceived course gives you a deep, detailed, and practical guide to proper research methods - methods that are broadly applicable to all kinds of research.
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T his is the best a nd easy t follow book!
- De Arelis Rodriguez en 02-08-19
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- De Michael en 09-07-13
De: Charles Wheelan
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The Prime Number Conspiracy
- The Biggest Ideas in Math from Quanta
- De: Thomas Lin - editor, James Gleick - foreword
- Narrado por: Bob Souer
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These stories from Quanta Magazine map the routes of mathematical exploration, showing listeners how cutting-edge research is done, while illuminating the productive tension between conjecture and proof, theory and intuition. Listeners of The Prime Number Conspiracy are headed on "breathtaking intellectual journeys to the bleeding edge of discovery strapped to the narrative rocket of humanity's never-ending pursuit of knowledge," says Quanta editor-in-chief Thomas Lin.
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Better [more relevant] than you might expect.
- De James S. en 09-30-19
De: Thomas Lin - editor, y otros
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The Half-life of Facts
- Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date
- De: Samuel Arbesman
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
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New insights from the science of science Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that Pluto was a planet. For decades, we were convinced that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing. But it turns out there’s an order to the state of knowledge, an explanation for how we know what we know.
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Author misrepresents what an actual 'fact' is.
- De Davin V. Jones en 12-03-12
De: Samuel Arbesman
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What the Luck?
- The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
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Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow helped listeners identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives.
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The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
- De Richa Joshi en 10-22-24
De: Gary Smith
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The AI Delusion
- De: Gary Smith
- Narrado por: Eric Michael Summerer
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We live in an incredible period in history. The computer revolution may be even more life-changing than the Industrial Revolution. We can do things with computers that could never be done before, and computers can do things for us that could never be done before. But our love of computers should not cloud our thinking about their limitations. The AI Delusion explains why we should not be intimidated into thinking that computers are infallible, that data-mining is knowledge discovery, and that black boxes should be trusted.
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The non-obvious obvious
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Effective Research Methods for Any Project
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We rely on effective research in many areas of life, and at times our lives even depend on it. But what is it that makes research effective? Any good research rests upon, above all else, method. In these 24 dynamic lectures, you’ll discover the remarkable procedures and techniques that make research such a powerful tool. This brilliantly conceived course gives you a deep, detailed, and practical guide to proper research methods - methods that are broadly applicable to all kinds of research.
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T his is the best a nd easy t follow book!
- De Arelis Rodriguez en 02-08-19
De: Amanda M. Rosen, y otros
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
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- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 10 h y 48 m
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- De Michael en 09-07-13
De: Charles Wheelan
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The Prime Number Conspiracy
- The Biggest Ideas in Math from Quanta
- De: Thomas Lin - editor, James Gleick - foreword
- Narrado por: Bob Souer
- Duración: 10 h
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These stories from Quanta Magazine map the routes of mathematical exploration, showing listeners how cutting-edge research is done, while illuminating the productive tension between conjecture and proof, theory and intuition. Listeners of The Prime Number Conspiracy are headed on "breathtaking intellectual journeys to the bleeding edge of discovery strapped to the narrative rocket of humanity's never-ending pursuit of knowledge," says Quanta editor-in-chief Thomas Lin.
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Better [more relevant] than you might expect.
- De James S. en 09-30-19
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New insights from the science of science Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that Pluto was a planet. For decades, we were convinced that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing. But it turns out there’s an order to the state of knowledge, an explanation for how we know what we know.
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Author misrepresents what an actual 'fact' is.
- De Davin V. Jones en 12-03-12
De: Samuel Arbesman
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- De: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- De: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
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"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- De: Nate Silver
- Narrado por: Mike Chamberlain
- Duración: 16 h y 21 m
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Narración:
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Historia
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- De Scott Fabel en 03-09-13
De: Nate Silver
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Data Science for Business
- What You Need to Know About Data Mining and Data-Analytic Thinking
- De: Foster Provost, Tom Fawcett
- Narrado por: Benjamin Lange
- Duración: 12 h y 46 m
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Data science experts Foster Provost and Tom Fawcett, Data Science for Business introduces the fundamental principles of data science, and walks you through the "data-analytic thinking" necessary for extracting useful knowledge and business value from the data you collect. This guide also helps you understand the many data-mining techniques in use today.
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What I Was Looking For
- De Sean en 05-20-22
De: Foster Provost, y otros
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Everybody Lies
- Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are
- De: Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, Steven Pinker - foreword
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By the end of on average day in the early 21st century, human beings searching the Internet will amass eight trillion gigabytes of data. This staggering amount of information - unprecedented in history - can tell us a great deal about who we are - the fears, desires, and behaviors that drive us, and the conscious and unconscious decisions we make. From the profound to the mundane, we can gain astonishing knowledge about the human psyche that less than 20 years ago seemed unfathomable.
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Leave out the politics please
- De Shane Hampson en 02-20-20
De: Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, y otros
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Law School for Everyone: Constitutional Law
- De: Eric Berger, The Great Courses
- Narrado por: Eric Berger
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Americans wage many of today’s fiercest policy debates and culture wars over constitutional meaning. It’s because constitutional law is so fundamental to our democracy that law schools across the country teach the subject. It's the area of law that determines what federal and state governments are permitted to do, and what rights you have as an individual citizen of the US. Here, you'll get the same accessible, well-rounded introduction to constitutional law as a typical law student - but with the added benefit of noted constitutional scholar Eric Berger's brilliant insights.
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Read with this Neil Gorsuch!
- De Amazon Customer en 02-03-20
De: Eric Berger, y otros
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Standard Deviations
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Ejecución
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- Pedro DC C
- 03-05-23
Excellent
This book should be a must read for every student who wants to have a sound career in behavioral sciences.
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- Tom
- 03-08-17
Great examples of failing to understand methodology and lying with stats.
This book will help you become a skeptical consumer of stats and the conclusions drawn from them.
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esto le resultó útil a 5 personas
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- R. Williams
- 09-14-22
Rehash with a few highlights
These books all have the same paradoxes and mistakes. That said there were a few new nuggets here.
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- martaelisity
- 02-27-24
Adorable!
I love love love this book! I have recently started a Data Analytics course and this book is perfect to listen to in my free time and still be about my course. I did not like, though, that the audiobook makes refferences to diagrams that are nowhere. This book does not have an accompanying PDF, so it was a little annoying. Also, the pause between subchapters is way too long, in my opinion. Otherwise it would have been 10 out of 10.
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- A. Yoshida
- 02-10-20
Good Introduction on Misinterpretation of Data
The book provides an excellent introduction on the misinterpretation/misuse of data and statistics. For example, it is often cited that college graduates earn more money than high school graduates. But the fallacy of that thinking is that college graduates are self-selected; they choose to attend college and so the difference isn't just having a college degree (which result in a higher compensation). After all, billionaires like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg became rich despite not having a college degree (quite big exceptions to that statement). The book included some cautionary tales to illustrate a point but wasn't related to data. For example, the book described how Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (author of the Sherlock Holmes stories) believed in paranormal activity despite his friends' explanation on how the scams worked. Eventually, that transitioned to studies into paranormal activity and how researchers cherry picked the data that supported the theory and "explained away" the data that didn't support it.
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- Prof. Yonathan Mizrachi
- 06-20-20
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future research. Thank you for your insights.
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- Andreas Johansson
- 08-11-17
Good read for all empiricist
I have a MSc in statistics, and I have seen countless examples of miss-used statistics in medicine and economics. This book offers a great overview of the most common pitfalls, including several examples of each.
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esto le resultó útil a 14 personas
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- Jeanie Lipscombe
- 07-03-22
Must Read
Great book that makes forces you to be more critical about how you think and what we base our beliefs on. Everyone can benefit from reading it:
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- Jan Madsen
- 02-25-18
Good but stumbles on macro economics
Very good read and certainly recommendable. Just ignore the "USA can print money to pay off its debt" nonsense in the Reinhart & Rogoff section.
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- Randy
- 10-20-22
Wonderful reality checksJ
Wonderful logical material with well presented examples. The only problem I have is that it was somewhat repetitive.
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