AARP Poll: GOP Challenger Leads in Pivotal Montana U.S. Senate Race

Whoever wins in Montana in November will get four electoral votes toward the 270 needed to win the presidential race. Roughly 49 percent of Montana’s registered voters are Republican or lean Republican, and 30 percent are Democrats or lean Democratic, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2020, Trump won Montana, earning 57 percent of the vote compared with 41 percent for Biden.

Unlike some other states with crucial Senate races, such as Maryland, voters in Montana are less likely to split their tickets by supporting candidates from different parties for different races, Ward said.

In the Senate race, older voters could be Tester’s best chance at narrowing Sheehy’s lead as Election Day nears, Ward said.

“If Jon Tester is going to keep in this race, I think he really needs to lean into getting back some of those older voters that have supported him in the past,” he said.

Voters 50 more likely to turn out

Interest in voting in November is high, especially among older adults. Ninety-two percent of voters 50-plus report being “extremely motivated to vote,” compared with 85 percent among voters of all ages.

Sixty percent of older Montana voters plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot, while 28 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day. Another 6 percent of voters 50-plus plan to vote early in person.

AARP (Source: Getty images)

AARP Montana State Director Tim Summers said older voters have long been a powerful bloc in Big Sky Country, making up 56 percent of all registered voters in 2020 and 65 percent in 2022.

“Election after election in Montana, voters age 50-plus cast the majority of ballots. So if a candidate wants to win in Montana, they had better pay attention to the 50-plus voter,” Summers said.

Most voters in Montana are pessimistic about the future of the country, the poll found. Only 27 percent of voters 50-plus think the nation is moving in the right direction, while 69 percent are concerned it is headed the wrong way. Among voters of all ages, 26 percent think the U.S. is going in the right direction, and 70 percent say it’s moving in the wrong direction.

Social Security, Medicare, housing costs among older voters’ top concerns

When it comes to issues, older Montana voters ranked Social Security (78 percent), Medicare (71 percent) and the cost of housing (62 percent) as extremely or very important factors to them as they decide which candidates to support in November.

Pocketbook issues such as inflation, the economy and Social Security are key concerns for voters. Sixty-one percent of older Montana voters say they're worried about their personal financial situation, compared with 38 percent who are not worried. Fifty-six percent of older voters reported that Social Security is or will be a major source of income for their household.

Concerns about finances could impact how voters 50-plus cast their ballots. Ninety-three percent of older voters say they are more likely to support candidates who will make sure workers get the Social Security benefits they earned, and 75 percent report they would be more likely to support candidates who protect Social Security from cuts.

AARP (Source: Getty images)

When asked what issues would be most important personally in deciding their votes in this election, 53 percent of older adults picked a personal economic issue, such as inflation or jobs and the economy, as the top factor.

The biggest single issue for Montana voters was immigration and border security (40 percent). Pollsters attributed the high percentage to Montana’s strong GOP leanings. “Immigration is very much a Republican issue,” Ward said.

Other important issues include threats to democracy (20 percent) and abortion and reproductive rights (18 percent).

Caregiving plays an election role

A quarter of older adults polled reported being a caregiver to an older or ill adult or someone with a disability. Of those, 30 percent reported dedicating 21 hours or more to caregiving.

Older voters support assistance for caregivers. Of those surveyed, 71 percent said they would be more likely to back a candidate who advocates for caregivers who help their loved ones live independently in their own homes. Sixty-five percent are more likely to back candidates who advocate for tax credits for unpaid family caregivers. And 63 percent would be more likely to vote for candidates advocating for paid leave for caregivers.

“If candidates want to win,” said AARP’s Summers, “they would be wise to listen to those older voters and address these issues, especially caregiving and property taxes.”