Yannis Gougoulias

As long as the #US #fiscaldeficit is not put in balance, US #bondyields will continue to rise, which will contribute to a larger deficit in the future as the US borrows money at higher rates.

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The chart shows that the Central Bank of Turkey has raised its policy rate to 53%, while the Turkish lira overnight reference rate (TLREF) in the futures market hovers around 50%, and the yield on 2-year government bonds stands at 38.53%. This indicates that the Central Bank is pursuing a tight monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation. However, the bond market reflects a relatively lower interest rate environment. The lower yields in the bond market suggest that investors may have confidence in Turkey’s long-term debt repayment capacity. #economy #usdjpy #finance #eurusd #data #CBRT #TURKEY #sustainability #economy

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𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 📅 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇸Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMIs will deliver evidence on economic activity across developed economies. Projected to remain in expansion territory apart from manufacturing in the Eurozone and the US. 📅 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 🇺🇸Consumer Confidence expected to remain relatively unchanged at 103.5. Any beat will be seen as positive particularly in equity markets. 📅 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell due to deliver pre-recorded opening remarks at the US Treasury Market Conference, in New York. Any remarks on the magnitude of the next cut will be critical. 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde due to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board Annual Conference, in Frankfurt. Any comments on the ongoing rate cutting cycle will be critical. 🇨🇭SNB projected to cut rates once again by 25bps. Focus will be on the central bank’s guidance for further cuts. 🇺🇸Initial Jobless Claims continue to be an important labor market reading especially after falling down to 219K last week. 📅 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 🇺🇸PCE Price Index will provide more inflation evidence for the Fed and markets. A critical data point although the Fed’s focus in now more on the labour market as we know. In addition to the above, several Fed/ECB speakers are due to speak this week which can bring further volatility. An overall quieter week compared to last week. Main events of the week are central bankers’ appearances and PCE inflation. Have a great trading week! 👊

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This is crazy Since last October hedge funds have pumped $24 BILLION into the #Turkish #Lira and there seems to be no signs of stopping We are witnessing the largest 'carry trade' position by hedge funds in the past 5 years Why? Turkey's interest rates have soared to 50% from 8.5% since last June after the country went through an economic overhaul Funds are performing a 'carry trade' in which they are borrowing U.S. #dollars and investing in Turkish lira In addition to betting on the currency, foreign investors have scooped up around $12.5B in lira government #bonds since the economic overhaul last June Foreign #investors now hold an astonishing 6.7% of the country’s domestic debt stock, compared with 0.6% before Turkey's May election Outside of buying stocks and options, hedge funds are notorious for investing in and out of foreign currencies to take advantage of other rates We'll keep tracking these movement for you here 🫡

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The Bond Trader report 06/09/2024 Treasury market EU papers in fashion after bad economic news from Germany. US traders await jobs numbers later today.   Bund: back to reality, after German Industrial Orders unexpectedly rose by 2.9%, Industrial Production reports a -2.4%, while a -0.3% was predicted. EU GDP and Employment Change came out today, expecting 0.6% and 0.8%. Bad is good and the terrific situation of the first economy in the continent spurs the necessity of a further push by the central bank, ie cut rates further; the Bund jumps today from 134 to 135 in early trading hours, and so peers like France, Italy and Spain. I bought yest the Greece 10 years for technical reasons, as a main resistance was broken: it continues rising today. UST: Powell shakes markets by stating that they “will not welcome any further weakening in the labor market” and that the FED “shifted from fighting inflation to preventing deterioration in the job market”, a day before the widely followed Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment will be delivered. Expectations are of 160k and 4.2%. Any better number will cap rate cuts hopes and USTs will suffer. In the meantime, USTs are marginally up, with yields losing a modest 3bp across the curve, and USD weakens, breaking out the EUR 1.11 resistance to 1.1112. Emergings China’s gov decided to merge two state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan and Haitong, to create a leader in the sector with USD 230 billion in assets: the resulting entity will overtake Citic as China’s largest between the 140 players in the sector and increase fears of an state intervention in the industry, after Goldman and Morgan Stanley took full control of business in the country. Ghana launched a debt restructuring offer for USD 13 billion of offshore debt, after agreement with Blackrock and Abrdn. The 6.375% 2027 trades stable at 52%. Credits New issues: UBS raised USD 1.5 billion via a perp at 6.85%, rating Baa3. ING raised USD 1 billion via a junior subordinated perp at 7.25%, rating Ba1. San Miguel Global Power raised USD 268 million via a perp at 8.75%. Pampa Energia raised USD 410 million of a 7 year bond at 8.25%, rating CCC. Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait raised USD 300 million via a perp AT1 at 6.50%. Seven & I Hold (Japanese retailer) rejects the largest-ever buyout proposed by the Canadian Couche-Tard for USD 38.5 in cash (!). The rejection is based on the fact that the new company will face antitrust challenges in the US. Its 1.392% 2033 in JPY slightly recovers from its recent drop to a price of 100.30%. Verizon will finally buy Frontier Comm in an all-cash deal of USD 20 billion. 2030 Verizon’s yield 4.40%. Raiffeisen (Romanian bank): a Russian court froze the shares of the bank, the biggest western financial entity in the country, blocking the sale of the Russian business unit. Its 3.875% 2030 stands firm at 101%. Good luck

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