Oxford Global Projects

Great session from our CEO, Alexander Budzier on The Next Decade in the Construction Sector for RIBA. Progress has been diminishing within construction for years but there are increasing opportunities to capitalise on. One of the interesting approaches he shared was a National Highways case study. Typically, a substantial team of Engineers, Designers and more (~60 people) would be require about eight months to fully design a complex motorway junction. They would optimise the alignment, check the signage move and make sure it's complying with the regulations. Nowadays, Autodesk can automatically generate a model that takes into account all the relevant building and construction codes, as well as regulations. They can also use it to optimise certain elements. Autodesk can generate a multitude of feasible design alternatives and a small team of Designers will take two to four weeks to evaluate all the designs automatically generated, and choose the winning design. What new approaches have you seen adopted? #RICSconstructioninfrastructureconference2024 #RICS #constructionidustry #infrastructureindustry

Congratulations to our Senior Expert, Dr Giuseppe Sassano! He was awarded the Project Management Doctorate of the Year by the Association for Project Management for his doctoral research. His thesis, “Optimism Bias and Cost Overruns: Experimenting on the Internal and External Views in Resources and Time Estimation,” explores how behaviour can skew project estimates and results. Improving project forecasting is a crucial area and it’s great to see him contributing in academia, as well as in practice.

Congratulations to our CEO, Dr Alexander Budzier and Chair, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg, who recently published The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down? This paper covers the Summer and Winter Games from 1960-2024 and is an update from their influential 2016 paper on the Olympics. Some of the interesting findings: 🔹 The Games are getting more expensive 🔹 The cost per athlete (a useful unit metric for the Olympics) is increasing 🔹 The cost overruns average 159% 🔹 57% of the games have a cost overrun of greater than 100% 🔹 They have an 100% record of overrunning on cost - this is not matched by any other project category. Read the full paper at https://lnkd.in/enMP78EB for more of the findings and proposed solutions or watch Alexander explain the highlights here https://lnkd.in/e5hv_7ft.

Congratulations to our Chair, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg, who recently did an interview on Planet Money, NPR podcast with Darian Woods. The topic: Why California's high-speed rail (HSR) was always going to blow out. Bent highlighted the importance of using organisations and people with domain-specific expertise for megaprojects. California HSR did not use international suppliers who had built HSR but local ones that lacked that experience. On the flipside, California HSR did a good job of engaging with stakeholders. Sadly, this will not be enough for them to break the Iron Law of Projects: that they are over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again. Listen to the 10 minute clip at https://lnkd.in/eBHrT9pp.

Our CEO, Alexander Budzier, will be speaking at the RICS Global Construction and Infrastructure Conference on 20 June. The Conference will explore global trends and their far-reaching impacts on Construction and Infrastructure. This is a key event for industry professionals seeking to navigate and lead in an increasingly interconnected and rapidly evolving global construction sector, with a focus on sustainability. Register for the conference (which runs online from 07:30-17:00 BST) at   https://lnkd.in/djXRDMHh. #RICSconstructioninfrastructureconference2024 #RICS #constructionindustry

Our Senior Expert, Karlene Agard MSc (Oxon) attended the Association for Project Management Golden Thread launch. They shared the impact of the project management profession on the UK’s economy. The APM found that the profession contributes £187bn GVA annually and employs 2.3m FTEs - 8.5% of the U.K. total. Prof (Dr) Adam Boddison OBE pointed out that there are a lot of sectors that deliver projects but aren't connected to the broader project management community. The APM is something the APM is looking to bridge that gap. Have you seen examples of cross sectoral learning in megaprojects? #TheGoldenThread

Our Head of Sustainability and Resilience, Michala Techau wrote for the Institution of Civil Engineers about how a lack of collaboration is limpacting out ability to meet net-zero. Michala calls for 🔹 Improvement in selection of the right projects for delivery. 🔹 Greater project management discipline, including using reference class forecasting #projectrcf to better understand the risk and outturn of projects. 🔹 More effective policy design - beyond politically motivated decisions. 🔹 Effective use of incentivization to support, not hinder the green energy transition. 🔹 Collaboration between communities, companies, and consumers in the long term interests of the planet. Read the full article at https://lnkd.in/eU8kFhAy.

Congratulations to our Chair, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and co-author Dan Gardner! Their award-winning book, How Big Things Get Done, has been published in 🇨🇳 Chinese 🇯🇵 Japanese 🇵🇱 Polish 🇹🇭 Thai 🇪🇸 Spanish 🇬🇧 English. Next week it will be published in 🇩🇰 Danish, and the 🇫🇷 French translation is coming soon. It's great to see that this important book is getting to a global audience because its' lessons transcends borders! Which of the project leadership heuristics have you seen applied well? 1. Hire a masterbuilder 2. Get your team right 3. Ask 'why?' 4. Build with lego 5. Think slow, act fast 6. Take the outside view 7. Watch your downside 8. Say no and walk away 9. Make friends and keep them friendly 10. Build climate mitigation into your project. 11. Know that your biggest risk is you #HowBigThingsGetDone

Our Head of Data Science, Andreas Leed, Senior Consultant, Giuseppe Sassano and Expert, Dirk Poeker attended the OECD - OCDE Infrastructure Forum on Infrastructure for Resilience. One of the interesting themes was trade offs. They explored nature based solutions compared to grey infrastructure. Grey infrastructure typically has a high initial outlay and lower maintenance, while nature based solutions are often overall cheaper to implement, but require more maintenance. This is often harder to accommodate in the way projects are funded and assessed. Then there are trade-offs between net zero transition vs biodiversity concerns. Switching to renewable energy has a high biodiversity cost, which is not as well documented and is often missing from cost-benefit analysis and appraisal. There is a lot of work required to improve sustainability.

Congratulations to our Senior Expert, Dr Giuseppe Sassano! He is a finalist for the Association for Project Management Doctorate of the Year. His PhD is in Optimism bias and cost overruns: experimenting on the internal and external views in resources and time estimation. This research explores the impact of optimism bias on estimation in project management, particularly in infrastructure projects. It introduces the "Holistic view" framework, integrating internal and external perspectives for better forecast quality. The study 🔹 examined the relationship between dispositional optimism and resource overruns, 🔹 explored the effects of optimism uplift on forecast precision, 🔹 and the influence of unpacking techniques on estimations. Results highlight the importance of experimental methods in project management, reveal new interconnections between various forecasting perspectives, and assessed the effectiveness of different forecasting tools against optimism bias.