Montel Analytics

🚀 Exciting Updates for Scandinavian Energy Markets! 🚀 We are thrilled to announce the latest quarterly update of our "Energy Brain Reports power price scenarios," featuring some significant enhancements, particularly for the Scandinavian markets: 🔹 **Revamped Modeling Approach for Price Zones**: Starting July 2024, our country reports for Sweden, Denmark, and Norway will include zone-specific modeling. 🔹 **Updated Assumptions Based on New Government Policies**: Reflecting recent governmental energy policy statements, we have revised our assumptions for Northern and Eastern Europe. 🔹 **Enhanced Flexible Demand Modeling**: Our model now better represents the varying degrees of flexibility in electric mobility, heat pumps, and electrolysers.   **Your Benefits at a Glance:** ✔️ **Long-Term Revenue Assessment**: Evaluate revenues up to 2060 with our extended power price scenarios. ✔️ **Central Scenario Insights**: Assess the impacts of current political decisions with our central scenario. ✔️ **Highlight: "GoHydrogen" Scenario**: One of the most advanced Europe-wide scenarios featuring a high share of renewable energy and flexibility. ✔️ **User-Friendly Reports**: Clear, concise, and comprehensive reports – as much text as necessary, as much information as possible. ✔️ **Inclusive Q&A**: Enjoy up to two hours of Q&A, perfect for engaging with your project partners. If you would like to learn how these quarterly updates can be beneficial, contact Michelle Wessner via email: [email protected] #EnergyMarket #RenewableEnergy #ScandinavianMarkets #SustainableFuture #Innovation

In recent weeks the question has been raised how much does the exported power volumes from #HU to #UKR effect the DayAhead prices of HUPX Hungarian Power Exchange Ltd.? Looking at the scheduled HU->UKR from the end of May until now, I think it's fair to say that this export is not among the most important drivers of the high DE-HU spot spread we have seen recently. It does add to the general tightness, specially compared to pre-war times when Ukraine exported to Hungary - but it is not the driver. (please see my previous posts for the most important ones) The deliveres peaked on the first week of July while the #HU prices were still mostly in line with #DE while for the second week of July the volumes to Ukraine actually declined quite signficantly. (1. image) Zooming in on the second period (2. image) it is clearly visible how the HU->UKR flows are lower during the evening peaks, which were the most expensive and tight periods in #HU and most the #SEE markets. As a conclusion I think the volumes follow a commercial logic, #HU exports power vol. max. whenever it has enough surplus. I personally think exports to Ukraine are crucial, hopefully it helps people in a desperate situation, and the price of DayAhead markets should not even matter - but it's definitelly not critical factor to blame for high hourly prices based on the data. Montel Analytics #powertrading #energymarkets #montel

Monday, July 22, 2024, Day Ahead prices soared to very high levels in Southeastern Europe, with Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece experiencing the highest prices. (1. Image)   While the summer heatwave is easing somewhat, power prices are still very sensitive to supply disruptions. On July 19, the Romanian nuclear power plant experienced an unplanned outage, taking 650 MW offline. Combined with low wind output in Romania, generally weak hydro generation in Southeastern Europe, and reduced interconnector capacity between Serbia and Bulgaria, this led to prices soaring to 850 EUR/MWh in H21 across all three markets. The JAO publication page also reported very high shadow prices between Romania and Serbia, indicating congestion impacting Romanian prices. The supply shortfall in Romania was offset by imports from Bulgaria, which subsequently increased from Greece. (2-3. Image)   In Southeastern Europe, run-of-river hydro generation is currently well below the seasonal average. However, it is expected to improve in the coming days, as illustrated in the fourth image from Romania, which serves as a reference for SEE hydro generation. #energymarkets #montelanalytics #energyprices #hydropower #SEE

Powering Europe: Hydro Highlights & Market Trends Q2 2024 with Q3 Outlook. Register now for this FREE Webinar taking place August 13th. https://lnkd.in/eyfSC7BE Join us for an insightful webinar as we explore the latest developments in the European electricity market, with a special focus on the pivotal role of hydro power. We'll analyse key trends from Q2 2024 and provide a preview of what to expect in Q3. Our expert speakers include:   Phil Hewitt: Coverage of Great Britain Jean-Paul Harreman: Insights on Benelux and Germany Clément Bouilloux: Analysis of the French market Gábor Szatmári: Updates on Southeast Europe (SEE) Priyanka Shinde: Nordics market highlight  Eylert Ellefsen: overview of hydro power #energysector #hydrology #energyprices #France #Germany #Nordics #SEE

Join us live today at 12:30 CET for a FREE webinar discuss the challenges and options for the newly elected Labour Government in Decarbonising the UK. Register for free: https://lnkd.in/e4FvxM23 Some of the key topics that will be discussed: Brave targets for renewables, how does it get delivered? What is clean Power by 2030? What about system stability in a clean power world, can it be delivered in time? What is GB Energy? How will it work? We have a great panel of speakers: Phil Hewitt, Dhara Vyas from Energy UK and Johnny Gowdy from Regen and the webinar will be moderated by Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson. #montelanalytics #energymarkets #Gbenergy #labourgovernment #energysector

1. Image: 16.07.2024 - Demand Record with Outages - The heatwave is easing in #HU, but a new demand record was set on Tuesday. The Net System Load by MAVIR was 6,874 MW between 19:30 - 19:45, 225 MW higher than the previous summer peak in 2021. - Outages at Mátra (morning) and Csepel (evening peak) units impacted the DAM price for the next DayAhead (17.07.2024) and Intraday and Imbalance prices. - Imbalance prices were above 4,300 EUR/MWh between 18:45 - 19:00 but eased due to price capped mFRR upward activation. - Around 400 MW of oil generation ran for almost 2 hours during this period. - Intraday prices traded around DayAhead prices with thin liquidity as there was no XBID capacity from any direction. 2. - 3. Image: Changes in the Fuel Mix from 2021 to 2024 - Example from the Heatwaves - Multiple factors contributed to the tightness: increased exports to Ukraine, interconnector reduction between RS-HU, and general tightness in SEE, etc. covered via Montel News and collected in a great post by Marko Kosoric. - The generation mix had to cover an extra 225 MW without new conventional assets and with DERT G3 offline. - In 2021, with lower PV generation, conventional units had a balanced schedule with max ramps of 500-600 MW for the total fleet. - In 2024, schedules were more stressed with sharp ramps of 900-1000 MW during the evening, leading to higher ramping and maintenance costs, greater outage risks (with more extreme imbalance prices, and currently less liquid intraday). - These power plants were designed for baseload with flexibility, not frequent ramping and start/stop. As a summary price signals are clear - we need more interconnectors to Western Europe and more flexibility! #powertrading #intradaytrading #bess #renewables

Q2 GB Report Main headline: Solar output hits record high as demand for power reduces. Download the FREE report: https://lnkd.in/eSU98hcC. Renewables contributed 47% to the GB power generation mix, with wind output (17.2TWh), biomass (6.8TWh), and hydro (1.1TWh) all boosting Britain’s clean energy output during the quarter. Solar generation reached its highest level for any recent quarter, rising from 4.90TWh in Q2 last year to 5.1TWh. Other key stories from the quarter: Gas output reduced by over a third in this period to 13.4TWh – the lowest quarterly figure recorded by Montel Analytics in the last 20 years. Overall GB power generation (excluding imports) fell 17% from the previous quarter to 54.6TWh, marking the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2022. Average transmission system demand dipped to 23.5GW, the lowest figure for any Q2 since the first lockdown in 2020. #energymarkets #montelanalytics #solarenergy #energysector #energyprices

Q2 EU Report Main headline: Europe sees lowest fossil fuel generation on record. Download the FREE report: https://lnkd.in/eSU98hcC. Fossil fuel generation totalled 131.9TWh across the quarter – the lowest quarterly aggregate of fossil fuel generation on record. This represents a drop of more than 24% compared with Q2 2023. Both gas and coal saw similar falls of 27% and 28% respectively, while lignite declined by 12%. Other key stories from the quarter: High renewable generation causes an increasing number of negative day ahead prices across Europe. Demand numbers deceptively low across most of Europe. Record-high solar, largest wind outturn for any Q2 period. #energymarkets #montelanalytics #fossilfuel #energysector #energyprices

We are few days away from our FREE webinar: Decarbonising the UK: Challenges and Options for the Incoming Government. Register for FREE: https://lnkd.in/gk7Pvv4f In the wake of the recent election on 4 July, the new UK government faces critical decisions in its quest to decarbonise the country’s energy system. This webinar will delve into the strategies the UK can adopt to meet its green targets, attract investment, and lead the charge towards net zero, setting an example for other European nations. Moderator: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel News Speakers: Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel Analytics Johnny Gowdy, Director, UK think tank Regen Dhara Vyas, Deputy Chief Executive, Energy UK #energymarkets #marketinsights #decarbonise #netzero #energyprices

Major volatility on Eastern European power markets spills over into the weekend amid an ongoing heatwave ☀️ A significant increase in power demand across regions in Eastern Europe, due to an ongoing heatwave during the peak of tourist season, has caused excessively high day-ahead power prices. 🇭🇺- I previously highlighted earlier in the week that the Hungarian day-ahead market had reported its highest price since the peak of the 2022 energy crisis at €590/MWh. This figure was surpassed on Thursday (11/07), hitting €940.16/MWh at 20:00 CET. 🇭🇷- Croatia's power consumption records have been broken day after day this week, with an hourly record of 3,316 MWh yesterday evening. Wednesday's daily consumption was 6,974 MWh higher than the average over the last four years (Montel), with as much as 50.7% of this power being imported. The Krsko nuclear plant in Slovenia, which is co-owned by Croatian state utility Hep, provides 22-27% of the power Croatia consumes. From the chart below, it's clear that 🇭🇺Hungary top the pile for highest power prices across the week at evening peaks, consistently followed by 🇷🇴Romania, with 🇸🇰Slovakia, 🇷🇸Serbia, 🇭🇷Croatia, 🇬🇷Greece and 🇧🇬Bulgaria all showing significant volatility.