Montel Analytics

Netherlands, this morning solar generation was much lower than day ahead forecasts had predicted. With wind at very low levels and also the Danish Cobra interconnector offline, demand turned out significantly higher due to colder than expected temperatures. Energy production and imports fell short by almost 1400 MW at its highest. Prompting the activations of all available reserves in the Dutch market, well over 500 MW of aFRR reserve was deployed and the total available capacity of 924 MW of mFRR (incident reserve), to tackle the shortage in the market. This resulted, despite the Netherlands recently joining the pan European balancing market through Picasso in balancing prices of up to €2748 per MWh. As the market ran out of capacity, this highlighted a future market change. If the market runs out of capacity, a scarcity factor will be added to the balancing price. This mechanism will only come into effect from 1 December 2025. The impact of that measure, if it would have been live to day would have been significant as it extrapolates the prices of the last 100 MW in the balancing merit order linearly to match the total imbalance. A theoretical maximum price would then become possible of up to € 68.000/MWh  In today's example a highest price of around € 21000/MWh could have been hit at an imbalance of 1400 MW. If the scarcity factor had been active today. #energymarkets #Netherlands #solargeneration #Picasso #energyprices

Join us for our FREE webinar: Hydrogen Market Development Expectations and Price Modelling, happening on 26th November at 2 PM CET! Register now: https://lnkd.in/ecM5A8Jh In the third phase of our hydrogen pricing model, we see a complete transition from cost-based to market-driven pricing mechanisms. Hydrogen prices are becoming fully linked with fossil commodity prices such as natural gas, CO₂, and oil, fostering a competitive energy landscape. As hydrogen increasingly displaces fossil fuels, it progresses towards becoming the leading gaseous energy carrier, marking the dawn of a new era in the energy landscape. 📊 Analytical Insight: Our accompanying chart reveals the sources of hydrogen supply—domestic production, European imports, and imports from outside Europe. One key takeaway is that Germany’s hydrogen demand far outstrips its domestic production potential, making it highly reliant on imports. Initially, this reliance will be met through European imports. However, by the 2040s, hydrogen imports from outside Europe are set to play an increasingly crucial role, driven by the development of large-scale, low-cost production hubs globally. These imports are expected to unlock affordable hydrogen supply options, gradually meeting Germany’s growing demand. 💡 Curious about how these import dependencies might impact future hydrogen pricing? Don't miss this opportunity for an in-depth analysis and insights into hydrogen market trends and price forecasts. #hydrogenmarket #hydrpgenpricing #energymarkets #germany #energysector

We now know Trump won the US presidential election and that the new administration's energy policy will greatly impact Europe’s energy markets. But we don't know what the implications will be, so we are lucky to have this great selection of experts sharing their insights and thoughts on the impact on Europe and beyond. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University Global gas market expert Tobias Federico, Managing Director at Montel Analytics European energy markets expert Erik Solheim, Global thought leader, ex UN Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director UN environmental programme, ex Norwegian Minister Environment and Development presenting live from #COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan Jason Feer, Head of Business Intelligence at POTEN & PARTNERS Broad international and commodity market expertise from Houston, Texas Feel free jo join our free webinar CET 14:00 Wednesday 13. November, link in the comment below to register #energymarkets #LNG #globaltrade #climatechange #USA #MAGA #COP #UN #Parisagreement #EU #CBAM #oil #renewableenergy

𝐈𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐧𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤, 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐰𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧 (𝐒𝐄3, 𝐒𝐄4) 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 €1000/𝐌𝐖𝐡 𝐨𝐧 6𝐭𝐡 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 2024 It is the first time since January 2024 that the imbalance price in Denmark and Sweden reached the €1000/MWh mark. This sudden spike was observed on 6th Nov’24 at 13:00 CET. The mFRR energy market is cleared together in the Nordics and all the bidding zones that are coupled at that time get the same price. This price is equal to imbalance price at the moment (with some exception for Finland but it did not apply in this case, see a previous post on that https://lnkd.in/dyfDui2K). As this spike came out of nowhere, that is without any unforeseen outage or so, it is difficult for the market to react in the intraday stage. See an example in the attached figure. Multiple factors came together to lead to this situation: - Since the wind generation is all time low in Denmark, it is relying on other sources including imports. Also, the fact that there was a steep drop in imports both in Denmark and Finland, it made the market further tight. - As the days are getting shorter especially in the Nordics after the day light saving time ended and while we move towards 21st Dec, the solar availability has started to narrow down. This added to some solar forecast error made things worse. - Finnish wind outturn was lower at this hour, around 1GW, compared to other hours. The outturn was lower than forecasted.  - These factors combined together lead to mFRR up activations in multiple bidding zones including peat and gas in Finland and coal, gas, oil in Denmark. - There were no significant activations in SE3 and SE4 but the fact that they were coupled at the real time lead to high imbalance prices in these bidding zones too. Note that the Finnish charts are in EET! #imbalanceprices #pricespikes #Nordicbalancingmarket #intradaymarket

Are you looking to improve your understanding of the German intraday and balancing market? Our latest feature on the Montel Analytics platform can help enhance your trading and forecasting!   ✅ Key Highlight: Yesterday, our German NRV forecast achieved 90% accuracy in predicting the correct direction during important “actionable” periods—when surpluses or shortages exceeded 150 MW.   ⚡ Details:   Forecasted Direction Probability: Out of 96 periods, 41 showed an NRV Shortage Probability of 90% or higher. NRV Volume Drivers Chart: This tool lets you see how the model responds to changes in renewable output and trading patterns in the continuous intraday market. See how these insights can guide your strategies and improve your market operations.   ➡️ Get free trial access to this feature now: https://lnkd.in/eb4PqReJ #Renewables #NRV #MachineLearning #Balancing #EnergyMarket #Germany

Green week session 6 - Trump election win, the impact of the US election on Europe’s energy markets. Register for FREE: https://lnkd.in/ecgGVU_r With Donald Trump’s recent victory, Europe faces potential challenges in its green transition and energy security. As the U.S. pivots back to fossil fuel advocacy and eases environmental regulations, the global energy landscape is set to change. How will these shifts affect Europe’s net-zero goals and energy independence amid the rise of China’s clean-tech dominance? Join experts Tobias Federico, Erik Solheim and Anne-Sophie Corbeau for Session 6 of Green Week as we explore: 🔹 U.S. energy policy under Trump and implications for global climate action 🔹 Effects on global markets, including Europe’s CBAM 🔹 Strategies to ensure Europe’s energy security 📅 Date: 13 November 2024 🕒 Time: 14:00 CET #EnergyPolicy #GreenTransition #Webinar #Geopolitics #TrumpElection

After the go-live of Nordic flow-based market coupling on 29th October 2024, we have been observing something in the Nordics that we are not used to. It is the flows from higher priced zones to lower ones. These flows are also known as counter-intuitive flows. This week the price distribution across the Nordic bidding zones brings this topic all the more in limelight. Taking the example of 6th Nov’24 from 17:00 to 18:00 in the given figure, we can see the Day-ahead prices of SE2 being €4.47/MWh while SE1 is €37.86/MWh and SE3 is €202.91/MWh. At the same time, the northern most bidding zone of Norway, NO4 is €8.31/MWh while NO3 is €-1.15/MWh. In this case, the flows were found to be directed from SE1 to SE2 to SE3. Morten Pindstrup has already written an insightful post describing the reason for such counter-intuitive flows on 5th Nov’24. Link: https://lnkd.in/gYapufHT We are repeatedly seeing this pattern due to two critical network elements (CNEs) in SE2 and SE3. These two CNEs had the highest shadow prices of all the constraining grid elements. Shadow price represents the overall market value of an incremental MW of additional capacity on that network element. And there is another factor to look at with respect to these expensive CNEs, it is the power transfer distribution factor (PTDF) that indicates the sensitivity towards injection or withdrawal of power in any bidding zone.   In case of the NTC approach, the shadow prices are always equal to the price differences between the bidding zones. In the flow-based approach, price differences between bidding zones can be verified by computing the sum of shadow prices on all congested physical network elements multiplied by the PTDFs of those bidding zones. In the attached figure, I have shown an example of price difference between SE1 and SE2 was computed to be €33.38/MWh based on shadow prices and PTDFs. This price difference can be verified from the DA price map as well. The beauty of flow-based capacity calculation that it connects the characteristics of the network to the day-ahead market clearing. This market clearing aims to maximize social welfare which includes producers’ and consumers’ surplus and congestion incomes of the TSOs. One can argue that the congestion income which is determined by the price difference between bidding zones and the volumes exchanged would be negative for this combination of SE1 and SE2. However, the optimization model will choose this solution if it brings more value overall. Also, considering these grid constraints at the day-ahead market clearing stage reduces the problem with large and frequent overloads that otherwise need to be handled with counter trade/redispatch by the TSOs. #MontelAnalytics #flowbased #Nordics #markecoupling #marketupdates #counterintuitiveflows #gridmodeling #shadowprices

Interesting how Dutch balancing power is being activated for Picasso. With a pretty moderate imbalance in NL, we see long periods of high balancing activations, often in the opposite direction of the local imbalance. We spotted this yesterday, where Dutch balancing prices hovered around €300 for a long time with a system that was pretty well balanced. Today we are seeing this again, especially in periods where the day ahead price of neighbouring Germany was very high. With a market that does not allow imbalance positions for market participants (…), it strikes me as old that we should see these high activations, although in German terms 300 MW is not a lot. It’s not unexpected that this happens, as we had simulated activations with the pre-Picasso merit-order before go-live and already spotted this anomalous behaviour. What is unexpected is that market participants don’t seem to be adjusting their bidding behaviour to reflect the scarcity in the larger Picasso market. It remains an interesting process to follow and thankfully it has not resulted in excessive pricing yet, but as we develop analysis tools to monitor this, we are starting to see more interesting developments, like the one Willem Willems highlighted. We’ll keep you updated as we find our way in the wonderful world of balancing harmonization.

Germany is generating 700 MW from oil-fired units—the highest in a month—amid a decade-low in wind power output, Montel Analytics reported. With no wind across central and northern Europe, day-ahead prices spiked, reaching over EUR 800/MWh, while spot baseload prices hit a near two-year high. Oil or pumped storage units now fill the gap due to scarcity, said Montel Analytics director, Jean-Paul Harreman. German wind power may drop to 0.5 GW in early evening hours. Link to the full reporting by Andreas Lochner can be found in comments section. #energymarkets #windoutput #eneryprices #germany #energyinsights

Highest day-ahead price for GB since 2022. Today’s day-ahead prices are set to spike to more than £274/MWh for EPEX and more than £329/MWh for Nordpool! GB isn’t alone, with much of Europe including the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, all seeing day-ahead prices well above the £300/MWh mark.   What’s driving such extreme prices? In a word: Dunkelflaute, a German word describing a period of weather in which it is cloudy (low solar) calm (low wind) and cold (high demand). This results in a scarcity of available generation which has to be met by dispatchable generation, primarily CCGTs, OCGTs, and storage.    Imports are difficult to secure when most of the rest of Europe is undergoing similar conditions, although France does not seem as affected, with temperatures noticeably higher in the South and East of the country. Unfortunately for GB, the Eleclink interconnnector with France remains offline due to maintenance, leaving only half of the available import capacity available. #energymarkets #energyprices #europe #energysector #energyinsights