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If you’re in the market for an engagement ring the odds are you’re shopping for a diamond. You probably have a ballpark figure of how much you should spend on it too, maybe twice your salary. It might surprise you that this is all pretty new, and not much more than clever marketing. One company – De Beers – controlled 80 to 85% of all diamond production throughout the 20th century. With so much skin in the game on the supply side it makes sense that they wanted to amplify sales, allowing them to push prices up through demand. So, in 1948 they tied diamonds to enduring love with the “Diamonds are Forever” campaign. Fast-forward to the 1980s and De Beers wanted to anchor the amount consumers should spend on its diamonds. It opted to go high with clever taglines like “How can you make two months’ salary last forever?” This stuck, and De Beers could have been forgiven for thinking that its dominance might last forever. It didn’t, and now they’re facing a new challenge: the rise of lab-grown diamonds (LGD). Stefano Turconi explored this during his Luxury Strategy elective at London Business School, with additional insight provided by guest speaker, CEO of Smiling Rocks, Zulu Ghevriya. There is a lot about LGD that makes them attractive in more ways than their cut, colour, and clarity. They share enough similarities with mined diamonds to make the two essentially indistinguishable. But there are key differences, not least in price and in their environmental and social impact. This minimised impact on both wallet and world is important to Millennial and Gen Z buyers who have played a large part in significantly reducing the impression of LGD being cheap and fake. With the cost of LGD production decreasing each year this represents a major disruption to the industry, and a major problem for De Beers and its diamond mining competitors. There are a couple of scenarios emerging. In a substitution scenario the two types of diamond live together, with customers viewing them as largely interchangeable except for the most impressive mined diamonds. This will have a big impact on the mined diamond industry, with a reduction of perhaps 25-30% of its market share. In a segregation scenario, however, mined diamonds and lab-grown diamonds are seen as markedly different categories. This would create a far more harmonious co-existence, with perhaps less than 5% impact on the diamond mines. It's not clear which scenario will emerge, but either way there is a major disruption underway. Luxury Strategy is an extraordinarily relevant course and Stefano’s explanation of what’s at stake and what it means is done in a way which brings relevance no matter your industry. When Zulu Ghevriya took over in the second half he showed why the mined diamond producers should be concerned. More on his talk to follow, but there was enough in what he said to suggest that significant change is on the horizon. Maybe diamonds aren’t forever after all. Inner Circle MBA